Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 10:32 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM   Moonset 12:20 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PKZ741 Kachemak Bay- 409 Am Akdt Fri May 10 2024
Today - SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft.Tonight - E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.Sat night and Sun - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon through Tue - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 101313 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 513 AM AKDT Fri May 10 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Sunday night)...

An east-west oriented upper level short-wave is lifting northward across Southcentral this morning. There are a few lingering showers along the Gulf coast and Alaska Range, partly due to upslope flow.
Otherwise, much of Southcentral has seen at least partial clearing overnight. With a cold airmass in place, surface temperatures have dropped to freezing or below for nearly all of Southcentral.
Some very localized gap winds are responsible for the locations still sitting above freezing.

Looking upstream, a large vertically stacked low pressure system centered over the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula is tracking northeastward toward southern Alaska, with a short- wave ridge building out ahead of it. Rain and wind will quickly spread to Kodiak Island today and then to the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai Peninsula regions late this afternoon through this evening. The storm system will be slow moving, with the low drifting into the western Gulf Saturday afternoon. Thus, look for a prolonged period of rain for these areas. The CIMSS satellite-based Total Precipitable Water product shows a tropical tap of moisture feeding into this system, with values just under an inch along the leading edge of the upper low/trough. A series of short-waves rounding the low will provide plenty of lift and produce some hefty precipitation totals for Kodiak Island and the coastal zone of Southcentral. The heaviest precipitation will be along western Prince William Sound/eastern Kenai Peninsula, enhanced by strong southeasterly upslope flow.
Have generally upped precipitation amounts in the latest forecast.
While the airmass in place right now is quite cold - and supportive of snow - strengthening winds ahead of the storm will lead to quickly rising snow levels today, resulting in primarily rain for communities and the road system. The one place that could see some light wet snow accumulation is Turnagain Pass to Summit Lake along the Seward Highway. Snow levels will continue to rise Saturday, resulting in a change to all rain for this area.

Meanwhile, for inland areas of Southcentral, a glancing blow from upper level short-waves combined with airmass instability (due to cold air aloft) will lead to some showers each afternoon/evening.
However, these will be brief in any given location and much of the region will remain completely dry. Temperatures will slowly warm each day. In addition, surface ridging ahead of the low combined with the low level instability will lead to gusty gap winds, strongest today.

The low will weaken over the northern Gulf on Sunday, with the upper trough then lifting northward across Southcentral. Forcing mechanisms for precipitation will become weaker and less focused.
As a result, there could be a shower just about anywhere on Sunday, though the track of the main part of the trough will favor eastern Prince William Sound up to the Copper River Basin.
Broad low pressure across the region on Sunday will result in light winds for most areas.

-SEB

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A stacked, weakening low is now moving into the southern tip of the AKPen this morning just to the north of Cold Bay. This low is embedded in a much larger longwave trough extending across nearly all of Mainland Alaska and out across the eastern Bering Sea.
Gale force winds continue to wrap around the north side of the low between the AKPen and the Pribilofs, as well as along its occluded front approaching Kodiak Island from the west. Areas of rain and wet snow will continue moving up from the Aleutians and AKPen into Bristol Bay this morning as southeast winds pick up as well across much of Southwest today. This low will slowly drift into the western Gulf as it fills in and weakens over the weekend, resulting in flow turning more northeasterly and offshore across Southwest through Sunday. This should finally allow temperatures to climb out of the late season deep freeze back to something a little more seasonable. For the most part, highs will reach back into the low to mid 50s (and mid 40s along the coast)
both Saturday and Sunday. There may even be enough low level instability developing for a few rounds of afternoon showers where breaks form in cloud cover and allow for more direct surface heating.

Out across the Pribilofs and Aleutians, little change to the overall cool and blustery pattern is expected over the next few days. Gusty northerly winds to the northwest of the primary low center should drop off across the eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs as the low weakens and pulls away into the western Gulf through Saturday. At the same time, a weaker North Pacific low will skirt south of the western Aleutians, pushing across easterly winds up to small craft range and periods of rain/snow as it progresses steadily eastwards through Sunday. Consensus for the track of this low has shifted a bit farther south in latest guidance, so have lowered precipitation amounts and winds along/north of the Chain with this package to reflect this trend.

-AS

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A high amplitude, positively tilted trough extends from the Arctic across Western Alaska into the North Pacific South of the Aleutians. This trough weakens and become more shallow through the forecast period. This allows a number of energetic shortwaves to gain energy from the North Pacific and pass through the nearly zonal flow for Thursday. New features from Siberia brings some undefined changes after Wednesday. Model agreement is reasonable during the first half, but changes to more uncertain conditions through midweek, especially in the Western half of the forecast area.

The extended forecast opens somewhat quietly as Gulf low move the active weather into Southeast Alaska. Locally heavy rain over Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin dissipates Tuesday. A broad surface ridge over the Bering begins to flatten through Tuesday. Showery precipitation is expected to spread over the Aleutians, Bering and Alaska Peninsula ahead of the ridge. In the far West, the first Siberian low brings gusty winds and precipitation starting as snow, but quickly changing to rain across the Aleutians and Bering. This low and front pushes some mixed precipitation into Western Alaska, trailing over the Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before diminishing over the AKPEN Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall moves inland over the West as the low moves into the Lower Yukon Valley through Thursday.

-Kutz

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southeast winds out of Turnagain Arm will pick up this morning out ahead of a frontal system in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska.
Winds peak this afternoon coincident with the greatest amount of instability present. Southeast winds may gust as high as 30 mph this afternoon before down-inlet flow strengthens by the evening hours and persists into Saturday. This will help to keep the southeast winds over Turnagain Arm and out of the terminal with northerly winds prevailing this evening. The majority of precipitation will remain along the coast and the eastern facing slopes of the coastal mountain ranges due to the downslope drying effects of the southeasterly flow.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Halibut Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:19 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:09 AM AKDT     21.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:58 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM AKDT     -4.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM AKDT     18.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM AKDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Halibut Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Sadie Cove
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:18 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:08 AM AKDT     20.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:44 AM AKDT     -4.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:16 PM AKDT     18.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM AKDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sadie Cove, Kachemak Bay, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Anchorage/Kenai,AK