Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 9:52 PM Moonrise 11:28 PM   Moonset 4:15 AM

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PKZ742 Cook Inlet Kalgin Island To Point Bede- 336 Pm Akdt Thu Apr 25 2024
Tonight - N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Fri - NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.Fri night - NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.Sat - N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat night - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Mon through Tue - NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 260039 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 439 PM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Few changes to the forecast in the near-term. An upper low in the Bering Sea is poised to pivot towards British Columbia through the weekend, weakening the fair weather ridge that had been in place over Mainland Alaska. For today, a shortwave trough moves across the Mat-Su and Copper River Basin as it transits the western flank of the ridge. Lift from this shortwave, in combination with instability due to daytime heating, could lead to scattered showers in Susitna Valley this evening. Precipitation chances further increase from tonight through Friday afternoon as the front currently over Kodiak Island moves north towards Kenai Peninsula. Overall, not much precipitation is expected for the Mainland as the front will be weakening as it approaches. The bulk of this light precipitation will occur along Eastern Kenai Peninsula, with a small chance for stray showers to move inland.

More active weather arrives by late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon as a North Pacific low moves towards Kodiak Island and is enhanced by a shortwave trough rotating around the upper low.
Its associated front will be wetter than what Kodiak Island has experienced yesterday and today, with forecast rain amounts of around 1-1.5 inches for Eastern Kodiak Island and less than 1 inch for Western Kodiak Island. This front should remain far enough south that the Southcentral Mainland will be mostly dry.

Through Saturday, the low near Kodiak Island will descend southwards, bringing a return to drier and warmer conditions across Southcentral Alaska as weak high pressure builds in.
Instability due to daytime heating, in addition to shortwave troughs moving across the Mainland, could lead to convective showers in the Copper River Basin for Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday afternoon/evening. For now, it's been difficult to hone in on the showers because the upper level pattern becomes a bit more disorganized by the weekend, leading to uncertainty regarding where the upper level shortwaves will go. We'll be keeping an eye on these showers and their convective potential as we continue to update the forecast.

-KC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The weather pattern has been somewhat repetitious the past couple of days with a nearly stationary cutoff low situated west of the Pribilof Islands. Broad cyclonic flow around the low has promoted gusty conditions across the western Bering and through the Alaska Peninsula. A small swath of northwesterly small craft winds remain immediately north and east of the Central Aleutians this evening. These winds will push through the Islands of the Four Mountains and into the Pacific side of Nikolski tonight.
Otherwise, a few areas of light showers are persisting over Southwest Alaska. Evening radar shows rain over Tuntutuliak and Bethel as shower activity lifts northward toward the YK Delta.
Additional rain is noted from Koliganek and Lake Iliamna up to Sleetmute.

The western Bering low is forecast to begin a weakening trend through Friday morning as it shifts southeastward as an open wave, to be eventually absorbed by a developing trough over the western Gulf of Alaska tomorrow afternoon. A gradual decrease in shower activity is forecast across Southwest Alaska through Saturday morning as a result. Temperatures over the Bering and Aleutians will remain at or below normal into the weekend while temperatures over Southwest Alaska will remain at or above normal.



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Mon through Thu)...

By Monday morning, a familiar ridge over Southcentral will still be lingering in the area, continuing the clear pattern. An upper level trough will be situated over the southern Alaska Peninsula, crossing into the southwestern Gulf of Alaska, and a new upper level trough entering the western Bering Sea behind it. Through Tuesday, the ridge will likely extend from Southcentral into Southwest Alaska following the departure of the AKPen trough, while the western Bering system pushes a front across the Aleutians, likely reaching Unalaska by late Tuesday. The front is expected to generally weaken as it approaches Southwest and the resident ridge, but the parental low pressure system behind the front will likely move over the Western and Central Aleutians through Wednesday.

By Wednesday afternoon, the ridge over southern Alaska may begin to weaken as the upper-level support shows signs of shifting out of the area. This may allow for influence from the Bering low to move into Southwest Alaska and even Southcentral Alaska as the system approaches by late Thursday. Gauging impacts from this low in Southwest and Southcentral is still precarious given the uncertainty regarding the ridge movement, as well as the location/progression of the low itself. However, given the prolonged shift towards warmer weather over the next week expected, impacts from this system will likely not be winter weather. Although the overall synoptic setup is in fair agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.

-CL

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Cape Ninilchik
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM AKDT     20.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:37 AM AKDT     -1.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM AKDT     17.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:54 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:44 PM AKDT     3.93 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ninilchik, Alaska, Tide feet

Homer
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Fri -- 01:21 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:02 AM AKDT     19.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:42 AM AKDT     -1.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:03 PM AKDT     16.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:51 PM AKDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:49 PM AKDT     3.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Homer, Alaska (2), Tide feet

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