Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Angle Inlet, MN
March 19, 2024 5:25 AM CDT (10:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:19 AM Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 11:17 AM Moonset 7:09 AM |
Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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FXUS63 KFGF 190838 AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 338 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a now a 80% chance per WSSI for minor impacts from snowfall Thursday into Friday across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
- Still significant uncertainty with the weekend system though a higher end (6+ inches) snow event is still in the cards.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cold front has moved through the entire forecast area as of 08z.
NW winds 10-20 kts this early morning increasing as mixed layer rises to near 850 mb where it can tap some winds in the 30-35 kt range for gusts mid to late morning and early afternooon. Best chances for these gusts are within the northern and central Red River and east side of the valley in NW MN based on sounding profiles of winds aloft.
Stratocu upstream is lacking but there is some pretty far north north and northwest of Dauphin. But overall would appear cloud cover today will increase but likely not the lower stratocu stuff as we had with the last system. That said did leave in a 20 pop for -sn in the north valley as there are a couple narrow snow shower bands moving ESE in Saskatchewan and models continue to have some hint of light precip bands into NE ND this morning.
Fire weather not a big concern despite the winds as RH values will remain higher mostly in the 40 to 55 percent range this afternoon.
Clearing out tonight into Wednesday and Wednesday will see colder temps but drier airmass. Highs Wednesday in the 20s after Wed AM temps in the single digits in many areas. Lowest RH values do lower into the 25-40 percent range area wide but winds are also considerably less than today.
As the forecast has developed the past couple days a noted slowing of the Thursday system has been observed as noted by the previous discussion. With this slowing more of an interaction with the parent cutoff low over NW ontario is expected with a deepening surface low and apparent warm advection along with 700mb frontogenesis. While this will certainly favor a broad swath of QPF over 0.20" per NBM probs any FGEN seems poised to be best focused along the South Dakota border and into west central Minnesota leading the highest snow totals being confined to the far south and southeast reaches of the forecast area. Still a 50% chance for up to 2" as far north as HWY 200 per the latest NBM guidance and 4" along the SD state border. As for a high end the NBM remains the outlier as both the GEFS and EURO ensembles cap totals under 4" but these are likely not resolving some of the FGEN that would be better represented in the in a solution such as the NAM. While this snow may be on the fluffy end of the spectrum which naturally causes concern for blowing in the region the westerly winds associated with this system will likely not be favorable for such impacts and thus blowing snow is not a major concern. Finally seeing warning impacts of 6+ inches cannot be entirely ruled out in though this will hinge on the residence time of FGEN in the south and thus is a less than 20% probability yet and would be confined to a localized area.
Between the exit of the Thursday system and the arrival of the next system late this weekend short term ridging will build in with cold northerly flow keeping maintaining steep lapse rates near the sfc and thus flurry chances. Finally come Sunday we find the ridging shifting off to the east with deepening western troughing bringing a shortwave(s) into the northern plains. There remains split consensus on whether this will be more of a hybrid westerly flow pattern or true southwest flow when looking at cluster analysis though in the end there may be little difference in the impacts from resulting QPF.
The westerly flow scenario naturally results in less QPF of around 0.25" while the southwest flow regime would give upwards of 0.5" as better access to gulf moisture would be present. Regardless this will likely be an interaction of multiple waves and the predictability horizon will be fairly short. Glancing at WSSI for impact potential we can see values as high as 40% for moderate impacts which typically correlates well with baseline warning type impacts. Falling snow with this system would be most prominent Sunday and Monday but could linger further into the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the early morning, until a period of MVFR stratus (1700-2500 FT AGL) moves north to the south across eastern ND and northwest MN behind a cold front.
Very light snow/flurries may also accompany that cloud layer with brief visibility reductions, though confidence in snow or visibility impacts is low (less than 10%).
Ahead of this front gusty southwest winds will continue into the evening shifting to the west then northwest as this front passes. Several periods of wind shear ahead of then immediately behind the cold front (one from the west the other from the northwest) will also impact the region later this evening/overnight.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 338 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a now a 80% chance per WSSI for minor impacts from snowfall Thursday into Friday across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota.
- Still significant uncertainty with the weekend system though a higher end (6+ inches) snow event is still in the cards.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Cold front has moved through the entire forecast area as of 08z.
NW winds 10-20 kts this early morning increasing as mixed layer rises to near 850 mb where it can tap some winds in the 30-35 kt range for gusts mid to late morning and early afternooon. Best chances for these gusts are within the northern and central Red River and east side of the valley in NW MN based on sounding profiles of winds aloft.
Stratocu upstream is lacking but there is some pretty far north north and northwest of Dauphin. But overall would appear cloud cover today will increase but likely not the lower stratocu stuff as we had with the last system. That said did leave in a 20 pop for -sn in the north valley as there are a couple narrow snow shower bands moving ESE in Saskatchewan and models continue to have some hint of light precip bands into NE ND this morning.
Fire weather not a big concern despite the winds as RH values will remain higher mostly in the 40 to 55 percent range this afternoon.
Clearing out tonight into Wednesday and Wednesday will see colder temps but drier airmass. Highs Wednesday in the 20s after Wed AM temps in the single digits in many areas. Lowest RH values do lower into the 25-40 percent range area wide but winds are also considerably less than today.
As the forecast has developed the past couple days a noted slowing of the Thursday system has been observed as noted by the previous discussion. With this slowing more of an interaction with the parent cutoff low over NW ontario is expected with a deepening surface low and apparent warm advection along with 700mb frontogenesis. While this will certainly favor a broad swath of QPF over 0.20" per NBM probs any FGEN seems poised to be best focused along the South Dakota border and into west central Minnesota leading the highest snow totals being confined to the far south and southeast reaches of the forecast area. Still a 50% chance for up to 2" as far north as HWY 200 per the latest NBM guidance and 4" along the SD state border. As for a high end the NBM remains the outlier as both the GEFS and EURO ensembles cap totals under 4" but these are likely not resolving some of the FGEN that would be better represented in the in a solution such as the NAM. While this snow may be on the fluffy end of the spectrum which naturally causes concern for blowing in the region the westerly winds associated with this system will likely not be favorable for such impacts and thus blowing snow is not a major concern. Finally seeing warning impacts of 6+ inches cannot be entirely ruled out in though this will hinge on the residence time of FGEN in the south and thus is a less than 20% probability yet and would be confined to a localized area.
Between the exit of the Thursday system and the arrival of the next system late this weekend short term ridging will build in with cold northerly flow keeping maintaining steep lapse rates near the sfc and thus flurry chances. Finally come Sunday we find the ridging shifting off to the east with deepening western troughing bringing a shortwave(s) into the northern plains. There remains split consensus on whether this will be more of a hybrid westerly flow pattern or true southwest flow when looking at cluster analysis though in the end there may be little difference in the impacts from resulting QPF.
The westerly flow scenario naturally results in less QPF of around 0.25" while the southwest flow regime would give upwards of 0.5" as better access to gulf moisture would be present. Regardless this will likely be an interaction of multiple waves and the predictability horizon will be fairly short. Glancing at WSSI for impact potential we can see values as high as 40% for moderate impacts which typically correlates well with baseline warning type impacts. Falling snow with this system would be most prominent Sunday and Monday but could linger further into the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
VFR conditions should prevail through the early morning, until a period of MVFR stratus (1700-2500 FT AGL) moves north to the south across eastern ND and northwest MN behind a cold front.
Very light snow/flurries may also accompany that cloud layer with brief visibility reductions, though confidence in snow or visibility impacts is low (less than 10%).
Ahead of this front gusty southwest winds will continue into the evening shifting to the west then northwest as this front passes. Several periods of wind shear ahead of then immediately behind the cold front (one from the west the other from the northwest) will also impact the region later this evening/overnight.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Jack Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:50 AM AKDT 5.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:59 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 04:09 AM AKDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:16 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT 9.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:11 PM AKDT Sunset
Tue -- 05:08 PM AKDT 1.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:52 PM AKDT 8.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:50 AM AKDT 5.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:59 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 04:09 AM AKDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:16 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT 9.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:11 PM AKDT Sunset
Tue -- 05:08 PM AKDT 1.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:52 PM AKDT 8.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jack Bay, Valdez Arm, Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
8 |
1 am |
7.2 |
2 am |
6.5 |
3 am |
6 |
4 am |
5.8 |
5 am |
6.1 |
6 am |
6.7 |
7 am |
7.6 |
8 am |
8.7 |
9 am |
9.5 |
10 am |
9.9 |
11 am |
9.5 |
12 pm |
8.4 |
1 pm |
6.8 |
2 pm |
4.9 |
3 pm |
3.2 |
4 pm |
2 |
5 pm |
1.5 |
6 pm |
1.8 |
7 pm |
2.8 |
8 pm |
4.4 |
9 pm |
6.1 |
10 pm |
7.7 |
11 pm |
8.7 |
Duluth, MN,
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