Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:24 AM   Moonset 12:23 PM

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FXUS63 KFGF 022050 AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of rain are expected through the remainder of the week and into next week. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Active H5 pattern persists through much of the forecast period, with multiple chances to see rain and isolated thunderstorms. Shortwave troughing exits the region this evening and overnight, with a break in shower activity overnight for most areas. Another, slow moving, upper low traverses the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to portions of the region Friday afternoon through around midday Saturday. The best chance for thunderstorm activity will be along and just south of the International Border. This will gradually work to the east, with a period of dry weather starting Saturday afternoon and evening.

H5 shortwave ridging builds into the area Sunday ahead of our next system. Look for warmer and relatively dry weather through much of the day, with increasing rain chances late Sunday evening. A relatively deep upper low is being picked up by multiple ensembles heading into Monday. Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher with this system, along with a better chance for increased instability as moisture return is well-supported. Troughing will favor negative tilting ahead of the upper low, and a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons respectively.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MVFR conditions prevail across much of the area this afternoon, with periods of IFR ceilings possible during light to moderate rain. Rain continues to lift to the north at midday, with this trend expected to continue well into the afternoon and early evening before eventually tapering off late this evening. Low ceilings are most likely to occur along with rain activity, with current and upstream obs showing consistent 800 to 1200 foot ceilings.
Outside of heavier rain, Ceilings are generally in the range of 2000 to 4000 feet. Winds are expected to remain out of the southeast this afternoon, then shift to the southwest and eventually west during the overnight hours.

FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...None.
MN...None.

Jack Bay
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Thu -- 01:24 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:14 AM AKDT     4.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:31 AM AKDT     9.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:23 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:07 PM AKDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM AKDT     9.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jack Bay, Valdez Arm, Alaska, Tide feet

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