Thursday, May24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Angle Inlet, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 9:10PM Thursday May 24, 2018 8:37 PM CDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Angle Inlet, MN
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location: 61.03, -89.35     debug

Area Discussion for - Grand Forks, ND
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Fxus63 kfgf 250007
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand forks nd
707 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018

Issued at 703 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
500 mb low moving NE thru SW manitoba at 00z with best forcing for
storms in manitoba. Drier airmass still over much of eastern nd
and this is preventing much CU from getting going, the exception
is on eastern edge of deeper moisture on SE side of manitoba upper
low, which has helped a few showers tstorms go over far NW fcst
area langdon cando but they have quickly moved into canada. Also
far SE nd and wc mn where some deeper moisture via water vapor is
showing from E sd into SE nd wc mn and this has allowed a few
storms to fire in this area. Weak bulk 0-6 km shear has meant they
are having a hard time growing, sustaining themselves. The mid rrv
around grand forks is in the limited CAPE region per mesoanalysis
with capes 500 j kg so it may very hard pressed to get anything
going in the mid rrv. Will tone down chances a tad to mostly
isold slight chc

Short term (this afternoon through Friday)
issued at 337 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
negatively tilted trough over western nd and southwest mn will
transition along the international border and east of our cwa
Friday morning, followed by another shortwave trough through
southern manitoba Friday afternoon. There is already shower
development west of our CWA closer to the upper low center cold
pool, but over our CWA there is is an axis of subsidence dry slot
limiting potential over much of our area.

Forcing increases through the weekend, with approaching weak cold
front acting as focus for convergence thunderstorm initiation
this afternoon evening. Next moisture plume will transition back
over our cwa, and we should see destabilization ahead of cold
front as it shifts east. Some convective allowing models support
line of thunderstorms developing in our west after 23z (6pm) and
transition eastward ahead of cold front. There are other models
showing much less coverage, and with current period of stability
it could limit potential if recovery doen't occur as advertised.

Ml CAPE is still advertised to increase once again in nd to 1500
j kg (or higher) range and while shear is marginal to weak this
would support strong to severe thunderstorm development.

Very warm hot temperatures are expected again as westerly flow
transitions back over our CWA and WAA redevelops as surface low
pressure redevelops. Thunderstorm chances may remain in canada,
but there is at least a weak precip signal in our far north as
shortwave passes over southern manitoba, and a stalled
boundary front lingers near the international border. There could
be a narrow axis of instability along this frontal zone, so while
severe threat would be isolated, a few stronger storms can't be
ruled out.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 330 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
sat-sun: surface ridge moves over the region Saturday allowing hot
temperatures to develop both Saturday and Sunday. Hottest
temperatures into the mid 90s will reside in the lower red river
valley both afternoons. Clouds from low pressure lingering within
southwest ontario will result in lower high temperatures into the
80s within far northwestern minnesota on Saturday. There will be a
chance of overnight thunderstorms within southeastern north dakota
as a nocturnal low level jet pushes better theta-e content within
south dakota over a northward moving effective warm front.

Convection should dwindle Sunday morning allowing for dry conditions
through the majority of the day Sunday as well as strong
insolation warming. While the effective warm front moves north, a
cold front also moves southward out of canada. These two boundaries
meet and stall over the region to create additional thunderstorm
chances late Sunday lasting through the overnight hours.

Mon-thu: things get a little plugged up early next week with the
stalled front lingering over the region memorial day through
Tuesday. This will produce shower and thunderstorm chances both
days. Recent trends in guidance and markedly increased rain chances
for memorial day. Increased thicknesses over the region will also
keep temperatures warmer with memorial day highs still capable of
reaching into the 80s. Strength of thunderstorms will depend on how
much heating can be attained both days battling cloud debris.

Overnight convection remains possible memorial day and Tuesday
nights again attributed to nocturnal low level jet formation. Rain
chances are also linked to a surface low in western south dakota
progged to move into the region along the stalled front. There are
still many questions regarding severe potential as better wind shear
comes in proximity with the surface low towards Tuesday, but may not
be fully understood until the day of or night before. Come
Wednesday, the surface low is expected to be northwest of the region
although rain chances remain on the back side of the low.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 703 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
vfr thru the pd... Except near any storm this eve. Winds will shift
from a more southerly direction to a more westerly direction
overnight into Friday as a trough moves east.

Fgf watches warnings advisories
Nd... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Riddle
short term... Djr
long term... Cj
aviation... Riddle

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Jack Bay, Valdez Arm, Alaska
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Jack Bay
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Thu -- 04:12 AM AKDT     2.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM AKDT     9.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:16 PM AKDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:17 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:48 PM AKDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:52 PM AKDT     11.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Forks, ND (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.