Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Van Buren, ME
March 19, 2024 10:32 AM -02 (12:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:25 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 10:26 AM Moonset 7:36 AM |
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 190944 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 544 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly exits across the Maritimes today. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and southwestern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure develops near the coast Wednesday night, that tracks into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday, followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Saturday into Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
545 AM Update: Based on latest radar ref evolution across NE ptns of the Rgn, it was necessary to xpnd chc sn shwr PoPs further SW then the prev fcst, and mention lclzd sn accums of up to an inch for ptns of N Cntrl and NE Aroostook county, spcly in a band from about Eagle Lake to to just W of Bridgewater, refs greater than 20 DBZ are currently occurring. Most meso models indicates that this band weakening by 7-8am, with remnant lighter sn shwrs contg thru the remainder of the morn.
Minor adjustments were also made to increase cld cvr til mid morn ovr NE and E Cntrl ptns of the Rgn.
Otherwise, latest sfc obs were used to estimate erly morn fcst lows and to update fcst hrly temps thru midday, resulting in a net rise of 2 to 3 deg F msly ovr Nrn areas durg this tm frame.
Despite this bias, we kept Aftn fcst high temps across this area the same as last update, thinking that the relative lack of direct sunshine will result in a flatter diurnal rise in temps thru the remainder of the Morn. If were wrong here, there will be a better bias trends to raise Aftn high temps in the next fcst update or two.
Prev Disc: Still some left ovr llvl moisture tdy on the the back side of a departing first of a double upper trof system, which will keep clds and isold to sct lgt sn shwrs and sct flurries spcly ovr far NE ptns of the FA, with little or no sn accumulation. The rest of the FA will be ptly to msly cldy. High temps tdy will be near to slightly abv seasonal norms with gusty WNW winds. Flurries and isold sn shwrs should exit E and end across Nrn ptns of the FA by early this Evening.
Tngt, a very skinny sfc ridge will bring ptly cldy skies and dmnshg winds for all of the Rgn, before cldnss begins to increase ovr far Wrn areas by daybreak Wed ahead of a stronger Alberta clipper s/wv arriving from Cntrl Can. Low temps will be near seasonal norms.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A very complex setup in the short term for potential impactful snowfall Wednesday Night into Thursday.
Wednesday will feature a clipper like system diving southeast into Quebec with warm air advection over Maine. This will likely result in light precipitation developing with increasing boundary layer moisture advection on SE winds. Temperatures will be warming above freezing during the day so mixed PTypes likely with rain south and rain/snow or snow north. Highs top out in the low 40s south and upper 30s to around 40F north. Wed evening there is increasing agreement with some of the operational and ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF and to an extent the CMC. 500mb shortwave energy will dive southeast over Western New England which allows for strengthening upper level divergence over Cape Cod to Boston area. This will give way to surface cyclogenesis somewhere north of Cape Cod to perhaps the Portland area. ECMWF operational and ECMWF based AI model tilts the 500mb trof negatively and rapidly strengthens the surface low along the Midcoast and tracks it northeast into Maine. The latest ops runs from the CMC takes the low well northwest near Maine/Quebec border with the GFS into coastal Washington county.
Looking at the modeled thicknesses for the CMC gives strong belief its a outlier. Opted to take a blend of the GFS/CMC which is basically what the 00z ECMWF operational looks like taking a low from BHB to HUL.
Wed night the boundary layer will dynamically cool as the low deepens and colder air is drawn southeastward into Maine. Strong agreement with some potentially heavier precip falling along and NW of the center of the low wherever that track may be given stronger FGEN and decent DGZ that sets up. The challenge in the forecast going into Thursday is how fast the back edge of the precip ends. ECMWF keeps precip going with a strong deformation band on the backside while GFS looks more like a dry slot shutting things off Thursday AM. Opted to stick with an NBM blend for the day with steady precip confined across the north with precip ending south. During the day as precip comes to an end expect strong cold air advection to develop with the Moosehead and North Woods areas to reach their highs before midday before falling. W-NW winds will rapidly increase as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the storm with gusts 30-40mph possible. Snowfall when all said and done looking like 3-6 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA with 1-3 inches in southern 1/2.
Thursday night expect snow showers to come to an end across the north with gradual clearing through the night. It will be a brisk night with strong W-NW winds across the area. Winds gusting 30-40mph with temperatures falling back into the teens across much of the area with single digits for Moosehead and the North Woods. Wind Chills may approach -5 to -15F across the north and -5F to +5F across the south.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Friday surface high pressure will slowly build in from the west in Quebec during the day. Pressure gradient weakens slightly but still expected westerly gusts 25-30mph. Despite mostly sunny skies the temperatures will be below normal in the mid to upper 20s across the north with low 30s across Central Highlands and Downeast. This weekend features some significant differences in the operational runs but similarities in the ensemble members for these models. The GFS is the consistent operational run that remains bullish on a storm system on Saturday lasting into Sun AM with potential of Rain & Snow across the area. The ECMWF has shifted westward with the latest runs but still a weaker system.
The CMC keeps up on the northern fringe of a more deeper storm down in the Mid-Atlantic states with some precip. Opted to stick with the NBM for now which is leaning closer to the ensemble members similar to the GFS operational runs. Likely POPs on Saturday becoming chance POPs on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal favor snow north and rain/snow south.
Potentially active weather continues into next week with rounds of precipitation.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Today...mainly MVFR clgs KFVE - KPQI with ocnl MVFR and brief IFR vsbys in isold - sct sn shwrs. Mainly low VFR clgs KHUL - KBHB with ocnl MVFR vsbys in sct flurries at KHUL.
Mdt WNW winds all sites.
Tngt...low VFR clgs - unlmtd VFR all TAF sites. Lgt winds.
SHORT TERM: Wed...MVFR. Possible IFR. -RASN north, -RA south.
Winds SE 5-15kt.
Wed night...MVFR/IFR. LIFR possible. -RA changing to -SN south.
Mainly -SN north. E-SE 5-10kt shifting W-NW 10-15kt late.
Thu...MVFR/IFR. -SN becoming -SHSN. W-NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt. LLWS possible.
Fri...VFR. W-NW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt.
Sat...MVFR/IFR possible. -SN becoming -RASN south with -SN north. SE winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd Tdy thru Tngt. Max wv hts to 4 ft and wind gusts to 22kt ovr open waters tdy, then lower winds and wvs tngt. Kept close to blended model wv guidance for fcst wv hts with wv pds msly between 5 and 8 sec.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday expecting S winds generally 10-20kt with a few gusts to 25kt. Waves building 2-4ft with a period of 7-8sec.
Winds shift W overnight into Thu AM. Winds rapidly increase to Gales behind departing storm system. Westerly gusts increase 40-45kt during the day and last into Fri AM. Seas build 4-8ft on Thu with a period of 8-9sec. Winds fall back into SCA conditions as they shift NW Fri AM. Seas subside 2-4ft on Fri. Winds fall below SCA conditions Fri night. Next chance of SCA conditions are Sat-Sun with another storm system. In terms of precipitation, expect rain on Wed becoming Rain/Snow mix late Wed Night and then Snow by Thu AM which may reduce vsby at times. Additionally, Light Freezing Spray will be possible late Thu night into Fri AM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 544 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly exits across the Maritimes today. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and southwestern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure develops near the coast Wednesday night, that tracks into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday, followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Saturday into Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
545 AM Update: Based on latest radar ref evolution across NE ptns of the Rgn, it was necessary to xpnd chc sn shwr PoPs further SW then the prev fcst, and mention lclzd sn accums of up to an inch for ptns of N Cntrl and NE Aroostook county, spcly in a band from about Eagle Lake to to just W of Bridgewater, refs greater than 20 DBZ are currently occurring. Most meso models indicates that this band weakening by 7-8am, with remnant lighter sn shwrs contg thru the remainder of the morn.
Minor adjustments were also made to increase cld cvr til mid morn ovr NE and E Cntrl ptns of the Rgn.
Otherwise, latest sfc obs were used to estimate erly morn fcst lows and to update fcst hrly temps thru midday, resulting in a net rise of 2 to 3 deg F msly ovr Nrn areas durg this tm frame.
Despite this bias, we kept Aftn fcst high temps across this area the same as last update, thinking that the relative lack of direct sunshine will result in a flatter diurnal rise in temps thru the remainder of the Morn. If were wrong here, there will be a better bias trends to raise Aftn high temps in the next fcst update or two.
Prev Disc: Still some left ovr llvl moisture tdy on the the back side of a departing first of a double upper trof system, which will keep clds and isold to sct lgt sn shwrs and sct flurries spcly ovr far NE ptns of the FA, with little or no sn accumulation. The rest of the FA will be ptly to msly cldy. High temps tdy will be near to slightly abv seasonal norms with gusty WNW winds. Flurries and isold sn shwrs should exit E and end across Nrn ptns of the FA by early this Evening.
Tngt, a very skinny sfc ridge will bring ptly cldy skies and dmnshg winds for all of the Rgn, before cldnss begins to increase ovr far Wrn areas by daybreak Wed ahead of a stronger Alberta clipper s/wv arriving from Cntrl Can. Low temps will be near seasonal norms.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A very complex setup in the short term for potential impactful snowfall Wednesday Night into Thursday.
Wednesday will feature a clipper like system diving southeast into Quebec with warm air advection over Maine. This will likely result in light precipitation developing with increasing boundary layer moisture advection on SE winds. Temperatures will be warming above freezing during the day so mixed PTypes likely with rain south and rain/snow or snow north. Highs top out in the low 40s south and upper 30s to around 40F north. Wed evening there is increasing agreement with some of the operational and ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF and to an extent the CMC. 500mb shortwave energy will dive southeast over Western New England which allows for strengthening upper level divergence over Cape Cod to Boston area. This will give way to surface cyclogenesis somewhere north of Cape Cod to perhaps the Portland area. ECMWF operational and ECMWF based AI model tilts the 500mb trof negatively and rapidly strengthens the surface low along the Midcoast and tracks it northeast into Maine. The latest ops runs from the CMC takes the low well northwest near Maine/Quebec border with the GFS into coastal Washington county.
Looking at the modeled thicknesses for the CMC gives strong belief its a outlier. Opted to take a blend of the GFS/CMC which is basically what the 00z ECMWF operational looks like taking a low from BHB to HUL.
Wed night the boundary layer will dynamically cool as the low deepens and colder air is drawn southeastward into Maine. Strong agreement with some potentially heavier precip falling along and NW of the center of the low wherever that track may be given stronger FGEN and decent DGZ that sets up. The challenge in the forecast going into Thursday is how fast the back edge of the precip ends. ECMWF keeps precip going with a strong deformation band on the backside while GFS looks more like a dry slot shutting things off Thursday AM. Opted to stick with an NBM blend for the day with steady precip confined across the north with precip ending south. During the day as precip comes to an end expect strong cold air advection to develop with the Moosehead and North Woods areas to reach their highs before midday before falling. W-NW winds will rapidly increase as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the storm with gusts 30-40mph possible. Snowfall when all said and done looking like 3-6 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA with 1-3 inches in southern 1/2.
Thursday night expect snow showers to come to an end across the north with gradual clearing through the night. It will be a brisk night with strong W-NW winds across the area. Winds gusting 30-40mph with temperatures falling back into the teens across much of the area with single digits for Moosehead and the North Woods. Wind Chills may approach -5 to -15F across the north and -5F to +5F across the south.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Friday surface high pressure will slowly build in from the west in Quebec during the day. Pressure gradient weakens slightly but still expected westerly gusts 25-30mph. Despite mostly sunny skies the temperatures will be below normal in the mid to upper 20s across the north with low 30s across Central Highlands and Downeast. This weekend features some significant differences in the operational runs but similarities in the ensemble members for these models. The GFS is the consistent operational run that remains bullish on a storm system on Saturday lasting into Sun AM with potential of Rain & Snow across the area. The ECMWF has shifted westward with the latest runs but still a weaker system.
The CMC keeps up on the northern fringe of a more deeper storm down in the Mid-Atlantic states with some precip. Opted to stick with the NBM for now which is leaning closer to the ensemble members similar to the GFS operational runs. Likely POPs on Saturday becoming chance POPs on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal favor snow north and rain/snow south.
Potentially active weather continues into next week with rounds of precipitation.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Today...mainly MVFR clgs KFVE - KPQI with ocnl MVFR and brief IFR vsbys in isold - sct sn shwrs. Mainly low VFR clgs KHUL - KBHB with ocnl MVFR vsbys in sct flurries at KHUL.
Mdt WNW winds all sites.
Tngt...low VFR clgs - unlmtd VFR all TAF sites. Lgt winds.
SHORT TERM: Wed...MVFR. Possible IFR. -RASN north, -RA south.
Winds SE 5-15kt.
Wed night...MVFR/IFR. LIFR possible. -RA changing to -SN south.
Mainly -SN north. E-SE 5-10kt shifting W-NW 10-15kt late.
Thu...MVFR/IFR. -SN becoming -SHSN. W-NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt. LLWS possible.
Fri...VFR. W-NW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt.
Sat...MVFR/IFR possible. -SN becoming -RASN south with -SN north. SE winds 5-15kt with higher gusts possible.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd Tdy thru Tngt. Max wv hts to 4 ft and wind gusts to 22kt ovr open waters tdy, then lower winds and wvs tngt. Kept close to blended model wv guidance for fcst wv hts with wv pds msly between 5 and 8 sec.
SHORT TERM: Wednesday expecting S winds generally 10-20kt with a few gusts to 25kt. Waves building 2-4ft with a period of 7-8sec.
Winds shift W overnight into Thu AM. Winds rapidly increase to Gales behind departing storm system. Westerly gusts increase 40-45kt during the day and last into Fri AM. Seas build 4-8ft on Thu with a period of 8-9sec. Winds fall back into SCA conditions as they shift NW Fri AM. Seas subside 2-4ft on Fri. Winds fall below SCA conditions Fri night. Next chance of SCA conditions are Sat-Sun with another storm system. In terms of precipitation, expect rain on Wed becoming Rain/Snow mix late Wed Night and then Snow by Thu AM which may reduce vsby at times. Additionally, Light Freezing Spray will be possible late Thu night into Fri AM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
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