Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Van Buren, ME
April 30, 2024 3:14 AM -01 (04:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 10:51 PM Moonrise 4:57 AM Moonset 7:38 AM |
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 300133 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 933 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday while another low pressure passes to the south of the area, then high pressure remains over the area Friday into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
930 PM Update: Thin high cld cvr is beginning to spread ovr Wrn ptns of the FA from QB prov. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the late ngt hrs with no additional chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm. No other sig chgs made to the near term.
Prev Disc: Incoming cirrostratus can be seen on visible satellite imagery beginning to push into southern and western Maine. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the night tonight with clearing skies, though far NE Aroostook county will be last to fully clear out overnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around freezing across the north, and into the upper 30s Downeast where downsloping will warm the air into this region.
Cloud cover will begin to increase once more from the southwest through the day on Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, however gusty winds will have dissipated and northerly winds will become lighter. High temperatures under the increasing cloud cover will lift into the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Northwest flow aloft will be present Tuesday night through Thursday with temperatures closer to average. Two weak shortwave troughs moving through the NW flow could bring a little rain, the first Tuesday night and the second Thursday. The moisture with Tuesday night's system looks more abundant to the southwest of us. The question is how far northeast the light rain makes it, and there is still a lot of disagreement on this. There has been a bit of a northeast trend in the models, and adjusted PoPs up slightly, going with chance PoPs for the SW 2/3 of the area.
Still, lots of uncertainty. Even worst case scenario with the rain, however, is for about a quarter inch of rain mainly SW of Millinocket. And it's still possible all the rain will stay west of Bangor. Temperatures will be warm enough for only rain if any occurs. Any rain exits by dawn Wednesday, leaving way for dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night with weak high pressure aloft and at the surface. Then on Thursday, the next potential shortwave trough dives in from the northwest. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with the trajectory of this system, and went with only a chance of showers for Thursday day, mainly in west portions of the area. Again, even at worst case this looks like a light rain event with totals under a half inch if there is any rain. Models have been trending a bit wetter with Thursday's system...something to watch. Many models also keep the brunt of the rain just SW of the area, just like Tuesday night's system. Bottom line, a lot of uncertainty, but nothing terribly dramatic even in a worst case scenario for rain.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure looks to build back in Thursday night and Friday with dry weather. The amount of sun under the high pressure looks questionable though. Upper level ridging appears to amplify just west of us Saturday to Monday with a bit of a warming trend, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Rain chances generally increase as we head through the weekend and into Monday. Nothing to hang your hat on though, and went with just a chance of rain Sunday/Monday.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and into the day on Tuesday. Winds N to NW at 10 to 15 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts through the evening hours. Tonight, there may be a brief period of northerly LLWS, mainly across Downeast terminals, of around 30 to 35 kts between 00z and 09z.
LLWS will be brief, and dissipate into the early morning hours on Tuesday. N to NW winds overnight will fall to 5 to 10 kts while gusts 15 to 20 kts may remain. On Tuesday, VFR conditions continue with N to NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Brief gusts to 20 kts possible at Aroostook terminals early Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday Night... Possibility of MVFR/IFR mainly BHB/BGR, but confidence is low due to uncertainty on whether light rain will move into the area or not. Light winds.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with light winds.
Thursday...Possibility of MVFR/IFR, but low confidence depending on the track of a weather system and presence of rain. Light winds.
Thursday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with NE wind 5-10 kts.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts are expected to remain just below advisory levels tonight into Tuesday morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts possible on the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Winds will continue to decrease through the day on Tuesday. Seas will remain 1 to 2 ft tonight through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Conditions likely remaining below small craft levels with minimal fog through the weekend.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 933 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday while another low pressure passes to the south of the area, then high pressure remains over the area Friday into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
930 PM Update: Thin high cld cvr is beginning to spread ovr Wrn ptns of the FA from QB prov. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated into the late ngt hrs with no additional chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm. No other sig chgs made to the near term.
Prev Disc: Incoming cirrostratus can be seen on visible satellite imagery beginning to push into southern and western Maine. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the night tonight with clearing skies, though far NE Aroostook county will be last to fully clear out overnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around freezing across the north, and into the upper 30s Downeast where downsloping will warm the air into this region.
Cloud cover will begin to increase once more from the southwest through the day on Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, however gusty winds will have dissipated and northerly winds will become lighter. High temperatures under the increasing cloud cover will lift into the mid to upper 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Northwest flow aloft will be present Tuesday night through Thursday with temperatures closer to average. Two weak shortwave troughs moving through the NW flow could bring a little rain, the first Tuesday night and the second Thursday. The moisture with Tuesday night's system looks more abundant to the southwest of us. The question is how far northeast the light rain makes it, and there is still a lot of disagreement on this. There has been a bit of a northeast trend in the models, and adjusted PoPs up slightly, going with chance PoPs for the SW 2/3 of the area.
Still, lots of uncertainty. Even worst case scenario with the rain, however, is for about a quarter inch of rain mainly SW of Millinocket. And it's still possible all the rain will stay west of Bangor. Temperatures will be warm enough for only rain if any occurs. Any rain exits by dawn Wednesday, leaving way for dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night with weak high pressure aloft and at the surface. Then on Thursday, the next potential shortwave trough dives in from the northwest. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with the trajectory of this system, and went with only a chance of showers for Thursday day, mainly in west portions of the area. Again, even at worst case this looks like a light rain event with totals under a half inch if there is any rain. Models have been trending a bit wetter with Thursday's system...something to watch. Many models also keep the brunt of the rain just SW of the area, just like Tuesday night's system. Bottom line, a lot of uncertainty, but nothing terribly dramatic even in a worst case scenario for rain.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure looks to build back in Thursday night and Friday with dry weather. The amount of sun under the high pressure looks questionable though. Upper level ridging appears to amplify just west of us Saturday to Monday with a bit of a warming trend, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Rain chances generally increase as we head through the weekend and into Monday. Nothing to hang your hat on though, and went with just a chance of rain Sunday/Monday.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight, and into the day on Tuesday. Winds N to NW at 10 to 15 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts through the evening hours. Tonight, there may be a brief period of northerly LLWS, mainly across Downeast terminals, of around 30 to 35 kts between 00z and 09z.
LLWS will be brief, and dissipate into the early morning hours on Tuesday. N to NW winds overnight will fall to 5 to 10 kts while gusts 15 to 20 kts may remain. On Tuesday, VFR conditions continue with N to NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Brief gusts to 20 kts possible at Aroostook terminals early Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday Night... Possibility of MVFR/IFR mainly BHB/BGR, but confidence is low due to uncertainty on whether light rain will move into the area or not. Light winds.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with light winds.
Thursday...Possibility of MVFR/IFR, but low confidence depending on the track of a weather system and presence of rain. Light winds.
Thursday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with NE wind 5-10 kts.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts are expected to remain just below advisory levels tonight into Tuesday morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts possible on the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Winds will continue to decrease through the day on Tuesday. Seas will remain 1 to 2 ft tonight through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Conditions likely remaining below small craft levels with minimal fog through the weekend.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
Airport Reports
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Caribou, ME,
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