Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Van Buren, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 2:53AMSunset 12:06AM Wednesday June 28, 2017 11:55 PM WGST (01:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:39AMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Van Buren, ME
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location: 62.5, -42.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 290108
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
908 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend.

This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms across
the region through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through Thursday
9:08 pm update... Showers continue to dissipate across the cwa
this evening. As of 9 pm there is only one shower on radar in
northern hancock and a small portion of western washington
county. Mainly clear to partly cloudy for the next several
hours outside of that one isolated shower. Looking upstream on
satellite and radar there are clouds and showers in quebec
associated with a shortwave moving toward the area, and the near
term models such as the hrrr and rap indicate that a few
showers could work into western portions of the CWA after
midnight. Made some minor tweaks to the forecast based on the
current observations, satellite and radar, and near term models
and model trends.

Previous discussion...

afternoon showers and thunderstorms will quickly diminish by
early evening as an upper level disturbance moves east of the
region. Expect partial clearing this evening before clouds once
again are on the increase in advance of the next short wave
approaching from the northwest. There could also be patchy fog
late tonight. Lows will range from around 50 across the north
and the mid 50s central and down east.

Another upper disturbance is poised to cross the region on
Thursday with more showers expected. With a bit less in the way
of sb CAPE expected on Thursday, have only included isolated
thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon. Highs on on Thursday are
expected to range from the low 70s across the north and mid 70s
across central and downeast. It will be a bit cooler along teh
coast.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Models cont to advertise our fcst area straddling the
baroclinic zone between cooler canadian air to our N and much
warmer, moister tropical air to the S of the rgn thru the short
term. In the meantime, a series of S wvs cont to move W to e
across the rgn from cntrl can alg this frontal blyr. This will
result in bouts of shwrs and tstms.

The first bout will occur later Thu ngt into erly Fri morn and
will msly affect cntrl and SRN ptns of the fa. A second round
is then slated to affect our rgn later Fri into Fri ngt. With a
3rd then xpctd later sat. Considering that even ngt tm shwrs
will likely have enough elevated CAPE for thunder, we did not
distinguish between diurnal nocturnal TSTM preference, instead
using chc tstms with possible hvy rn with likely and abv shwr
pops and isold with chc shwr pops. With increasingly higher pws
going into the weekend, the risk of hvy rnfl and possible
flooding increases spcly by later Sat aftn into Sat ngt and
spcly cntrl ptns of the rgn, where pws once again reach into
the 1.75 to 2.00 range. Attm, we went conservative with 6 hrly
qpfs Sat aftn and eve given uncertainty regarding where banding
of shwrs and tstms will occur exactly ovr our fa. We will alert
subsequent fcst shifts about the possibility of needing of
flood watches for ptns of our rgn in later fcst updates.

Temps will slowly warm thru the short range, with most warming
occurring with ovrngt lows.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The potential of shwrs and sct tstms with lcly hvy rnfl will
cont into the late ngt across all of rgn as a warm occlusion
advcs ene thru the area. Following this front, shwrs and tstms
should decrease in cvrg on sun, being more diurnally driven in
the late aftn as the cntr of the high pw stream moves E of the
fa. One last upper trof crosses the rgn from qb on Mon with
additional shwrs and perhaps isold tstms with a slight cooling
trend. Tue and most of the rgn on Wed would then be much drier
with regard to any shwrs tstms with somewhat less humid
conditions with at or slightly abv avg hi temps.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Near term: expect mainlyVFR early this evening outside of any
lingering showers and brief mfvr conditions. Patchy fog to
develop tonight with LCL MVFR ifr conditions, but confidence was
not high enough to include in the 00z tafs. MVFR is once again
expected in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Short to long term: mainly hi MVFR and lowVFR by day in shwrs
and isold to sct tstms with ngt tm fog lowering clgs and vsbys
at ngt to ifr to lifr alg with shwrs tstms all TAF sites from
fri thru Sun ngt with mslyVFR mon.

Marine
Near term: the wind seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels through Thursday.

Short to long term: WV hts will be nearly SCA thresholds fri
thru Sun then gradually subside sig below 5 ft erly next week.

Went with about 75 to 95 percent of ww3 guidance for fcst WV hts
with WV pds msly in the 5 to 7 sec range. Another concern will
be the increasing presence of marine fog as we head into the
weekend as increasingly more moist tropical flow of air from
trop atlc streams nwrd ovr the gulf of me.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... CB duda
short term... Vjn
long term... Vjn
aviation... CB duda vjn
marine... CB duda vjn


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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.