Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Van Buren, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:18PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 7:18 PM -03 (22:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 9:14AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Van Buren, ME
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location: 62.5, -42.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 202016
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
316 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure from the great lakes will approach tonight and cross
the area on Thursday. High pressure will build in from the west on
Friday then crest south of the area Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
High pressure siting just offshore of new england with sfc low ovr
ern sd. High pressure wl scoot to the east tonight as upr low shifts
parent low into the great lakes ovrngt. This wl set the stage for
upglide and light snow mvg into the CWA around midnight.

Shield of cirrus currently affecting downeast areas but is still clr
acrs the north and st. John vly. Will take into the evng for clds to
mv in acrs the far north with temps dropping quickly for the first 2-
3 hrs this evng bfr lvlg off and beginning to rise aft 06z.

Snow wl continue thru the bulk of the mrng hrs bfr tapering off in
the aftn fm SW to ne. Rain wl mix with and eventually chg to rain
acrs the coast around noon. Question centers arnd whether snow
growth lyr can hold onto moisture by late mrng-early aftn acrs the
south and whether patchy drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle wl lkly
be falling at the end of the event as main pcpn exits into new
brunswick. For the time being hv gone with rain snow with only minor
accums aft 18z.

Nrn zones wl hold onto snow the longest as moisture wraps in bhnd
parent low. 24-hr QPF amnts fm all guidance thru 00z Fri averages
btwn 0.25-0.35" with a consistent 3-5 inches of snow areawide.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Low pressure will be exiting through the maritimes Thursday night as
high pressure begins to build in from the west. Some light snow
showers or flurries may be across the north Thursday night, mainly
early, otherwise the north will remain mostly cloudy with downeast
becoming mostly clear. A band of moisture across the north will keep
the sky partly to mostly cloudy north on Friday with downeast mostly
sunny. High pressure building in, and cresting just south of the
area, will then bring a clear to partly cloudy and cold night Friday
night. High pressure will slide south of the region Saturday as some
moisture wrapping in behind the high, over a ridge crossing the
east, and ahead of low pressure in the plains begins to move across
the north. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky across the north
Saturday morning and over the rest of the area during the midday and
afternoon. Saturday should remain mostly dry although some very
light patchy snow may begin to stray into northwestern areas toward
the end of the day as moisture thickens up over the north. Tranquil
conditions can be expected with high pressure nearby to the
south.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Our focus later in the weekend will be on a very large storm system
lifting north through the great lakes. Snow should spread
across our area overnight Saturday night as the low lifts into
the northern great lakes pulling ample moisture toward the
region. Deep low pressure will lift into southwest ontario on
Sunday as a weak triple point secondary low begins to form near
southern new england. The very large low will pull warm air
northward in the mid and upper levels while the weak secondary
surface low holds cold air in near the surface. This will result
in precipitation changing to sleet north and freezing rain in
southern areas. By the end of the day Sunday enough warm air
should work in to change precipitation over to rain or showers
across downeast and central areas while snow and sleet hang on
over the far north. From there, the forecast becomes less
certain and will ultimately depend on how quickly the secondary
low develops and where it tracks. A continuation of snow is
favored over the north Sunday night with rain possibly going
back over to wet snow over the higher elevations of central
areas. Strong northwest winds, and snow showers over the north,
will follow Monday into Monday night. Tuesday should then be dry
and continued windy. A small system may bring some snow for mid
week next week.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Near term:VFR tonight will lower to ifr after 07z for downeast
terminals and eventually lifr after 09z. Further northVFR gives
way to ifr by 09z.

Short term: MVFR conditions across the north andVFR conditions
downeast are likely Thursday night.VFR conditions downeast and
MVFR toVFR conditions across the north are expected Friday
into Friday night. Conditions should lower to MVFR across the
entire area Saturday, then drop to ifr Saturday night through
Monday as a large storm affects the area. Conditions should
improve to MVFR thenVFR Monday night and beVFR Tuesday. Winds
will be strong and gusty late in the weekend into early next
week.

Marine
Near term: seas and winds will settle below SCA levels tonight
before increasing to 25 kts and over 5ft by mid-morning thur.

Sca in effect from 15z thur-12z Friday.

Short term: a SCA will likely be needed Thursday night for
northwest winds gusting up to 30 kt. Winds should then dip below
sca Friday into Saturday night as high pressure slides south of
the area. A SCA will likely be needed Sunday for southeast
winds, possibly increasing to gale. A gale may then be needed
Sunday night through Monday for strong gusty westerly winds.

Tides coastal flooding
A high astronomical tide will occur around noon on Thursday.

16.92 ft mllw at cutler and 22.46 ft mllw at eastport will
combine with southerly flow and about a half foot of storm surge to
result in minor splashover along the washington county coast.A
coastal flood statement has been issued from 16z-18z. Lower
water levels expected along the hancock county coast given the
timing of the low pressure system but coastal flood statement
may need to be issued for this zone as we get closer to thur
morning.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 5 pm est Thursday for
mez001>006-010-011-031-032.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Thursday for
mez015>017-029-030.

Marine... None.

Near term... Farrar
short term... Bloomer
long term... Bloomer
aviation... Farrar bloomer
marine... Farrar bloomer
tides coastal flooding... Farrar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.