Thursday, May23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Van Buren, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 3:41AMSunset 11:05PM Thursday May 23, 2019 3:41 PM -02 (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:53AMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Van Buren, ME
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location: 62.5, -42.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 231643
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1243 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

High pressure moves east of the region today. Low pressure from
quebec will track across the area Thursday night into early
Friday. High pressure returns later Friday through Saturday. A
frontal system will approach Saturday night.

Near term through tonight
1240 pm update... Temperatures at this hour have risen into the
low to mid 60s away from the immediate coast at this hour. High
clouds are starting to stream back into the forecast area ahead
of tonight's system, so expect clouds to be on the increase the
balance of the afternoon. Only change at this time was to raise
temperatures another degree or two across interior downeast
based on latest observations.

Previous discussion...

high clouds with the remnants of an old occlusion will cross the
area this morning. Can't rule out an isolated sprinkle, but will
not include pops. This first batch of high clouds will be out of
the area by later this morning... Allowing some sunshine to
return before the clouds thicken again during the afternoon as
the upper ridge crests over the state. Still looking for mid to
upper 60s for the entire forecast area except the coast where
an onshore wind will keep it much cooler. Will hold off on any
pops until tonight. Latest guidance still delivers rain to the
entire area tonight with the heaviest amounts in a corridor from
southern piscataquis county towards southern washington county.

This corridor will receive total amounts from three quarters of
an inch to an inch. There is some elevated instability in this
corridor, but will hold off on mention of any thunder at this
time with MUCAPE mostly under 200 j kg due to the cold air
aloft. The compact vertically stacked low is expected to track
from around montreal towards the midcoast by early Friday
morning... As it propagates under a blocking high in eastern
canada. Based on this track, the forecast area will remain on
the cold and stable side of the low with a cool maritime flow
maintaining a low level inversion. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 40s. Atlantic moisture wrapping into the closed upper low
circulation will ensure rain continues into Friday morning when
the low finally slides southeast of the state.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Rain ends from NW to SE Friday morning as the low pressure exits
southeast of the area. Partial clearing from north to south
through the afternoon. Cool day with highs ranging from around
60 north, to low to mid 50s downeast where the rain and clouds
linger the longest.

High pressure moves in Friday night allowing for cool
temperatures. Not quite expecting any frost, but it will be
fairly close in some of the most favorable radiational cooling

Saturday looks quite a bit warmer as the high pressure moves off
to the east with return SW flow. Highs in the vicinity of 70
through the area.

Increasing and thickening clouds late Saturday into Saturday
evening, with some rain likely Saturday night as a result of
weak overrunning with warm advection.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday could be a fairly active thunderstorm day with a somewhat
warm and moist airmass and a weak shortwave trough approaching
from the northwest. Won't be an all day rain, but showers and
storms will likely be a factor.

Heading into Monday and lasting into Thursday, forecast
uncertainty increases greatly as models diverge in how they
handle the timing of fast-moving shortwaves in strong W nw
flow. Monday through Thursday, there will also be a pretty
strong temperature contrast over the region with cooler temps ne
and warmer temps sw. As a result, weather should be active with
possible thunderstorms, but timing systems will be tough.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Near term:VFR conditions with CIGS abv 5000 ft are expected
until tonight. Tonight, ifr CIGS will quickly roll into bgr and
bhb and spread north to hul later in the night. MVFR CIGS will
likely reach as far north as pqi and car later in the night.

Rain will affect all sites tonight. There is a slight chance of
embedded thunderstorms tonight for sites south of a line from
gnr towards eastport.

Short term: ifr MVFR early Friday improving toVFR through the
morning and into the afternoon as the weather system exits to
the se.VFR through Saturday evening, then MVFR likely with
possible ifr with the next rain event Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon into

Near term: winds will increase tonight, but expect very stable
conditions will limit winds to under advisory criteria. Seas
will gradually increase overnight in response to winds up to 20

Short term: small craft winds and seas likely on Friday as the
low pressure exits to the SE of the area with a fairly strong
pressure gradient on its backside. Conditions then likely
staying below small craft Friday night through Monday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am to 6 pm edt Friday for

Near term... Duda mcw
short term... Foisy
long term... Foisy
aviation... Duda mcw foisy
marine... Duda mcw foisy

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.