Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 10:40 PM Moonrise 7:36 AM   Moonset 4:10 AM

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PKZ803 Kwikpak Pass To Cape Stephens Out To 15 Nm- 144 Pm Akdt Mon May 13 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 kt. Tue - S winds 20 kt. Tue night - S winds 30 kt. Wed - S winds 30 kt. Wed night - S winds 30 kt. Thu - S winds 20 kt. Thu night - S winds 20 kt. Fri - SW winds 15 kt. Sat - W winds 10 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 132234 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 234 PM AKDT Mon May 13 2024


SYNOPSIS
Scattered to numerous showers willd develop over the Interior on Monday along with isolated thunderstorms. Showers and Isolated thunderstorms shift to the eastern Interior on Tuesday. A strong front will impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Snow mixed with rain from Nome east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue for the west coast Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level Analysis...
Troughing persist over the north slope and a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska. Ridging will build over the west coast on Monday.
Weak troughing will persist over the Interior on Monday then ridging slides to the east and a strong upper trough will push into the west coast Tuesday into Thursday. Models are more in line with the approaching low pressure system and models trending for stronger surface winds for the west coast the last 2 model runs.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will begin to impact the west coast on Tuesday with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to Warnings for Saint Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and for Diomede. Southerly winds could gust between 30 and 45 mph with gusts near 60 mph for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait.

Winter Weather Advisories for the Seward Penn. A mix of rain and snow expected at Nome on Wednesday. Snow and strong winds will develop over the Seward Penninsula, Yukon Delta coast and Northwest Alaska Tuesday evening into Wednesday. There is the possibility of elevated surf impacts for Eastern Norton Sound and along the Yukon Delta coast. Chances for precip will continue into Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the thermal trough. On Tuesday showers will be confined to the Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior. No precip expected on Wednesday. Highs in the upper 50s through Tuesday and in the lower 60s on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few flurries as well. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. Tuesday evening, we are monitoring a Bering Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the West Coast. There may be some winter weather impacts to the Chukchi Sea Coast, especially Point Hope. Snow is expected to begin in Point Hope around midnight with southerly winds increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. The snow may mix with rain at times on Wednesday, but the winds will remain strong through Thursday morning. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for coastal areas of Northwest Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water levels 3 to 5 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push ashore as well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are not in agreement for day 4 and beyond, but expect more of the same in the Interior with showers and isolated storms and high temperatures in the 50s/60s. Troughing looks to remain over the West Coast and Western Interior with some active weather. Though nothing looks particularly impactful this far out.

FIRE WEATHER
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the thermal trough. On Tuesday showers will be confined to the Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior. No precip expected on Wednesday. Highs in the upper 50s through Tuesday and in the lower 60s on Wednesday. Minimum RH's will be around 25-35% through Tuesday, then decrease to 20-30% on Wednesday. Winds remain relatively light, though any shower or storm may cause some erratic winds with gusts as high as 25 mph possible.


HYDROLOGY
Ice jam near Circle has released and everything is moving downstream. Ice and water released from the jam is expected to reach Fort Yukon during the early morning hours, then proceed down river. Ice had moved into Stevens Village yesterday afternoon but was stopped at the Dalton Highway Bridge. Breakup is expected at Stevens Village Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
Otherwise, a gradual breakup on the Upper Yukon is expected to continue.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-817-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.

North Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:44 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:01 PM AKDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:18 PM AKDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:48 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:43 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM AKDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:38 PM AKDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


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