Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kaktovik, AK
March 18, 2024 5:33 PM AKDT (01:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:52 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fairbanks, AK
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FXAK69 PAFG 182330 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active weather pattern is in store for the upcoming week as a series of storms will impact the West Coast, bringing strong winds, blowing snow, heavy snow, and mixed precip. Strong ridging pushes north across mainland Alaska bringing a significant warm-up with widespread temperatures at or above freezing for areas south of the Brooks Range by Wednesday and 20s above making their way north of the Brooks Range by Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 510 dam (decameter) elongated low is centered northwest of St Matthew Island this afternoon, with several shortwaves rotating through the flow. The northern most shortwave extending east across the Chukotsk Peninsula to Point Hope To Bettles to Fort Greely lifts northeast off the Arctic Coast by early Tuesday morning. The second shortwave extending southeast from the low to near Amchitka and into the northern Pacific this afternoon, moves to stretch from the low to Unalaska by Tuesday afternoon, the Seward Peninsula Wednesday morning, and north of the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon. While the shortwaves are rotating through the flow, the upper low moves to the western Bering Sea through early Wednesday and then moves northeast across Chukotka through Wednesday night. A 536 mb ridge is centered over central Chukotka this afternoon weakens through Tuesday as it moves to the Sea of Okhotsk. Meanwhile, strong ridging in the north Pacific extends north to Trapper Creek, absorbing weak ridging that extends from near Eagle north to Demarcation Point to a piece of energy offshore the Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast that split from the ridge over Chukotka. The strong ridge in the north Pacific slides north through Tuesday to become centered over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging building north across much of mainland Alaska.
Models...
The 18/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern.
Models are in better agreement with the low in the Bering that they have been struggling with. The ECMWF remains the farthest east with the low today, but is clustered closer with the NAM and the GFS. That being said, models continue to struggle with p types for the West Coast and Western Interior and thus snow amounts. A lot of hand edits to p types and snow amounts for this forecast package. For winds, leaned towards the NBM for the first 24 hours and then the NAM thereafter. For pops, slowed down the progression a bit and leaned heavily on hand edits to capture the forecast details.
At the surface, a 1046 mb high is 400 NM north of Prudhoe Bay with high pressure extending southwest to Chukotka. A front stretching from near Point Hope east along the Brooks Range will lift north of the Arctic Coast tonight. A 987 mb low is 175 NM south of Atka this afternoon with a front stretching from the low across the Pribilofs to Bristol Bay. As the low moves north into the Bering Sea Tuesday, the front will lift north through the Bering Strait to the Western Arctic Coast. Another front stretching from the low across the Pribilofs to Bristol Bay will lift north along the West Coast Tuesday to stretch from the to St Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to the Western Arctic Coast. By Tuesday afternoon, the low is situated 200 NM northwest of the Pribilofs, with yet another front stretches southeast from the low to Unalaska. The low continues north to the Gulf of Anadyr by noon Wednesday, dragging the front to the Seward Peninsula and then offshore the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front moving from southwest to northeast is pushing across the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range this afternoon and will continue to do so through early Tuesday morning. Visibility in blowing snow has largely remained above a mile today, however now that falling snow is moving across the coast, the combination of the winds and east winds of 20 to 35 mph is resulting in areas of blowing snow with visibility of a mile or less. These winds will diminish from west to east through the evening hours, allowing for improvement in windchills and visibility. Another front will push across the Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, increasing east winds of 20 to 30 mph once again along the coast. Near Point Hope, southeast winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Winds diminish Wednesday. Gusty southerly winds develop in the Brooks Range passes Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm quickly this week with temperatures climbing into the teens to twenties above by Wednesday
West Coast and Western Interior...
The first in a series of storms begins to impact the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island this evening as it tracks north through the Bering Strait through Wednesday. Models continue to depict two waves with this storm. The first leading warm front which will bring brief heavy snow, blizzard conditions, strong winds, and a mix of rain, snow, and wintry mix, then a warmer second wave with another round of strong winds with more snow, rain, and wintry mix. Precipitation forecast continues to be difficult due to p type forecast being messy. Opted to introduce rain and a rain-snow mix into the forecast, instead of going for all wintry mix. This reduced snow amounts. Snowfall totals from this afternoon through Wednesday night range from 6 to 10 inches of snow in the Bendeleben Mountains and Pilgrim Springs to 5 to 7 inches near Nome to 4 to 6 inches on St Lawrence Island and generally less then 3 inches elsewhere. The blowing snow forecast is difficult as well. Believe the best chances for reduced visibility occur with the first wave before temperatures warm. Another storm system will push north along the coast on Thursday. Temperatures trend upwards through the week and by Wednesday temperatures top out in the 30s across much of the region.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is diminishing across the Interior this afternoon in the wake of a shortwave trough that is lifting northeast. Once the shortwave clears the Yukon Flats and southeastern Brooks Range, no precip is anticipated through Wednesday. A quick chance of snow is possible from the Upper Koyukuk Valley to the Central Brooks Range. The main focus this week will be the warm up. Temperatures warm quickly, by Wednesday temperatures will range from mid to upper teens in the Yukon Flats to the lower 40s on the north side of the Alaska Range. On Thursday the 40s spread further north to the Middle Tanana Valley.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Ridging across mainland Alaska Tuesday and persists through the weekend, while a series of shortwaves will ride up and over the western periphery of the ridge. This will support a series of potential storms for the West Coast where heavy snow and mixed precip are possible. Drier conditions expected across the Interior. A significant warm up will occur. By Friday, high temperatures will warm into the mid 30s to near 40 for much of the area south of the Brooks Range and well into the 20s above along the Arctic Coast and upper 20s to near 30 in the Arctic Plains.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southerly winds will result in elevated water levels along the southern Seward Peninsula coast through Wednesday. This will cause water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push water on top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or near the shore could become inundated with water. Ice shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts along south-facing coastlines.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>804.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ825.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
Gale Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>806-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812>814-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 PM AKDT Mon Mar 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active weather pattern is in store for the upcoming week as a series of storms will impact the West Coast, bringing strong winds, blowing snow, heavy snow, and mixed precip. Strong ridging pushes north across mainland Alaska bringing a significant warm-up with widespread temperatures at or above freezing for areas south of the Brooks Range by Wednesday and 20s above making their way north of the Brooks Range by Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 510 dam (decameter) elongated low is centered northwest of St Matthew Island this afternoon, with several shortwaves rotating through the flow. The northern most shortwave extending east across the Chukotsk Peninsula to Point Hope To Bettles to Fort Greely lifts northeast off the Arctic Coast by early Tuesday morning. The second shortwave extending southeast from the low to near Amchitka and into the northern Pacific this afternoon, moves to stretch from the low to Unalaska by Tuesday afternoon, the Seward Peninsula Wednesday morning, and north of the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon. While the shortwaves are rotating through the flow, the upper low moves to the western Bering Sea through early Wednesday and then moves northeast across Chukotka through Wednesday night. A 536 mb ridge is centered over central Chukotka this afternoon weakens through Tuesday as it moves to the Sea of Okhotsk. Meanwhile, strong ridging in the north Pacific extends north to Trapper Creek, absorbing weak ridging that extends from near Eagle north to Demarcation Point to a piece of energy offshore the Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast that split from the ridge over Chukotka. The strong ridge in the north Pacific slides north through Tuesday to become centered over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging building north across much of mainland Alaska.
Models...
The 18/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern.
Models are in better agreement with the low in the Bering that they have been struggling with. The ECMWF remains the farthest east with the low today, but is clustered closer with the NAM and the GFS. That being said, models continue to struggle with p types for the West Coast and Western Interior and thus snow amounts. A lot of hand edits to p types and snow amounts for this forecast package. For winds, leaned towards the NBM for the first 24 hours and then the NAM thereafter. For pops, slowed down the progression a bit and leaned heavily on hand edits to capture the forecast details.
At the surface, a 1046 mb high is 400 NM north of Prudhoe Bay with high pressure extending southwest to Chukotka. A front stretching from near Point Hope east along the Brooks Range will lift north of the Arctic Coast tonight. A 987 mb low is 175 NM south of Atka this afternoon with a front stretching from the low across the Pribilofs to Bristol Bay. As the low moves north into the Bering Sea Tuesday, the front will lift north through the Bering Strait to the Western Arctic Coast. Another front stretching from the low across the Pribilofs to Bristol Bay will lift north along the West Coast Tuesday to stretch from the to St Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait to the Western Arctic Coast. By Tuesday afternoon, the low is situated 200 NM northwest of the Pribilofs, with yet another front stretches southeast from the low to Unalaska. The low continues north to the Gulf of Anadyr by noon Wednesday, dragging the front to the Seward Peninsula and then offshore the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front moving from southwest to northeast is pushing across the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range this afternoon and will continue to do so through early Tuesday morning. Visibility in blowing snow has largely remained above a mile today, however now that falling snow is moving across the coast, the combination of the winds and east winds of 20 to 35 mph is resulting in areas of blowing snow with visibility of a mile or less. These winds will diminish from west to east through the evening hours, allowing for improvement in windchills and visibility. Another front will push across the Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, increasing east winds of 20 to 30 mph once again along the coast. Near Point Hope, southeast winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected. Winds diminish Wednesday. Gusty southerly winds develop in the Brooks Range passes Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures warm quickly this week with temperatures climbing into the teens to twenties above by Wednesday
West Coast and Western Interior...
The first in a series of storms begins to impact the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island this evening as it tracks north through the Bering Strait through Wednesday. Models continue to depict two waves with this storm. The first leading warm front which will bring brief heavy snow, blizzard conditions, strong winds, and a mix of rain, snow, and wintry mix, then a warmer second wave with another round of strong winds with more snow, rain, and wintry mix. Precipitation forecast continues to be difficult due to p type forecast being messy. Opted to introduce rain and a rain-snow mix into the forecast, instead of going for all wintry mix. This reduced snow amounts. Snowfall totals from this afternoon through Wednesday night range from 6 to 10 inches of snow in the Bendeleben Mountains and Pilgrim Springs to 5 to 7 inches near Nome to 4 to 6 inches on St Lawrence Island and generally less then 3 inches elsewhere. The blowing snow forecast is difficult as well. Believe the best chances for reduced visibility occur with the first wave before temperatures warm. Another storm system will push north along the coast on Thursday. Temperatures trend upwards through the week and by Wednesday temperatures top out in the 30s across much of the region.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is diminishing across the Interior this afternoon in the wake of a shortwave trough that is lifting northeast. Once the shortwave clears the Yukon Flats and southeastern Brooks Range, no precip is anticipated through Wednesday. A quick chance of snow is possible from the Upper Koyukuk Valley to the Central Brooks Range. The main focus this week will be the warm up. Temperatures warm quickly, by Wednesday temperatures will range from mid to upper teens in the Yukon Flats to the lower 40s on the north side of the Alaska Range. On Thursday the 40s spread further north to the Middle Tanana Valley.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Ridging across mainland Alaska Tuesday and persists through the weekend, while a series of shortwaves will ride up and over the western periphery of the ridge. This will support a series of potential storms for the West Coast where heavy snow and mixed precip are possible. Drier conditions expected across the Interior. A significant warm up will occur. By Friday, high temperatures will warm into the mid 30s to near 40 for much of the area south of the Brooks Range and well into the 20s above along the Arctic Coast and upper 20s to near 30 in the Arctic Plains.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southerly winds will result in elevated water levels along the southern Seward Peninsula coast through Wednesday. This will cause water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push water on top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the ice or near the shore could become inundated with water. Ice shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts along south-facing coastlines.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>804.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ825.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
Gale Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>806-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812>814-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
PAAD POINT THOMSON AIRSTRIP,AK | 16 sm | 18 min | WSW 06 | 1 sm | Overcast | Lt Snow | -13°F | -20°F | 69% | 30.48 |
Flaxman Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:57 AM AKDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:47 AM AKDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM AKDT 0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM AKDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM AKDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:05 PM AKDT 0.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:57 AM AKDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:47 AM AKDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:00 AM AKDT 0.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM AKDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM AKDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:05 PM AKDT 0.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Flaxman Island, Alaska, Tide feet
12 am |
0.4 |
1 am |
0.4 |
2 am |
0.4 |
3 am |
0.4 |
4 am |
0.4 |
5 am |
0.5 |
6 am |
0.5 |
7 am |
0.6 |
8 am |
0.6 |
9 am |
0.6 |
10 am |
0.5 |
11 am |
0.5 |
12 pm |
0.4 |
1 pm |
0.3 |
2 pm |
0.2 |
3 pm |
0.1 |
4 pm |
0.1 |
5 pm |
0.1 |
6 pm |
0.2 |
7 pm |
0.2 |
8 pm |
0.3 |
9 pm |
0.4 |
10 pm |
0.4 |
11 pm |
0.4 |
Petro,Dome/Fairbanks,AK
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