Sunrise 4:12 AM   Sunset 11:21 PM Moonrise 2:00 PM   Moonset 3:35 AM

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FXAK69 PAFG 172224 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 224 PM AKDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Overall model consensus this afternoon shows a low in the Gulf of Alaska which has forced the upper-level ridging over Eastern Alaska to retreat to the north some. Meanwhile, a large upper-level trough remains is moving into the Bearing Sea with a small shortwave trough near the Seward Peninsula into the Western Interior. This pattern has generally kept things quiet weather wise for the region despite some showers popping up over the White Mountains this afternoon. The upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska will quickly dig into southeast Alaska which in turn will allow the upper-level ridge to dig back to the south towards the Gulf of Alaska through the day Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough over the Bearing Sea will gradually push towards the Alaska Peninsula during the day Saturday before crossing into the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon and then tracking more easterly towards southeast Alaska into Monday. Model discrepancy increases as we head into next week, but the overall theme would have a few upper-level lows moving through the state.

DISCUSSION
Central and Eastern Interior...
We did increase temperatures some across the Interior for this afternoon based off some current trends, however, the overall story remains the same with temperatures in the mid 60s with some developing CU in the Tanana Valley with some showers over the White Mountains. Saturday could be slightly warmer than today with a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will be the best chance for thunderstorm activity for the Interior as a low pressure system cuts through the region. This will also bring some snow over the eastern Alaska Range and some portions of the southeast Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Still seeing more calm and drier conditions across the West Coast this afternoon that should continue into the remainder of the weekend despite the approaching trough to the west, with the exception of St. Lawrence Island that could still see some precipitation through tonight. We will also see a warming trend across the West Coast as we head into the weekend with increasing chances for precip for the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Above normal conditions will come to an end as chinook winds begin to end this evening with east to northeast winds increasing for both Saturday and Sunday due the strengthening of the Arctic High. As a result, we should see a return of some stratus and fog to the northern slope with temperatures returning to more of a normal range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible for most of the Interior for Saturday with increasing chances for Sunday. RH values on Saturday will bottom out around the lower to mid 20 percent range for the Yukon Flats and northern Alaska Range southeastward to Northway. The rest of the Interior will be in the upper 20 to upper 30 percent range. Similar conditions will be seen for Sunday across the same areas. Gap winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday morning for across the Alaska Range, however, the peak of the winds will come during a time when RH values are increased and should weaken before we reach our min RH values, so no Red Flag concerns as of right now.

HYDROLOGY
We have seen some hydrology concerns across the West Coast from the heavy rains near ice-covered rivers and streams. But we have seen improvement with the dry weather that is in place. This trend will continue as dry conditions will be in place through the weekend. The Yukon remains ice covered towards the Delta, however, there is no real concern of any ice jam at this point.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.

Flaxman Island
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Fri -- 04:21 AM AKDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 AM AKDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:29 AM AKDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:18 PM AKDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:30 PM AKDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Flaxman Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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