Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
June 2, 2024 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:05 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM Moonset 3:44 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 021541 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system brings rain showers today. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1050 AM Sunday...
Tweaked PoPs to better reflect current radar trends.
As of 625 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track.
As of 235 AM Sunday...
A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today.
Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating.
Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the area.
While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a 40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process.
Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible.
With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels, stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in overnight tonight.
The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15 degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now, WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However, that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.
Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday, models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep some clouds around.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 625 AM Sunday...
While a sort of double-barrel low pressure system brings a couple rounds of rain showers today, one ongoing this morning, and then another this afternoon, the most impactful flight restrictions will not come until overnight tonight, when stratocumulus/stratus, and mist/fog will lower ceiling and visibility to MVFR and then IFR. MVFR stratocu is also forecast at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and across the north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon into tonight, before it lowers farther overnight.
A thunderstorm is possible with the second round of showers this afternoon and evening, mainly south. Brief MVFR is possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR is possible within any thunderstorm.
light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this morning will become light southwest today, and then light west to northwest overnight tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions are possible within any thunderstorms. Lowering of ceiling and visibility overnight tonight may vary. This is a lower confidence portion of the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1141 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system brings rain showers today. Warmer with a brief dry spell for most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by mid-week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1050 AM Sunday...
Tweaked PoPs to better reflect current radar trends.
As of 625 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track.
As of 235 AM Sunday...
A weak low pressure will bring rain showers to the area today.
Timing and coverage will be largely tied to two mid-level short wave troughs, one crossing early this morning already bring showers across the middle Ohio Valley, and the other crossing this afternoon in concert with diurnal heating.
Diurnal heating will be limited, keeping CAPE narrow. Together with modest shear, any thunderstorms that occur this afternoon and evening are not expected to be severe, and the best chance for a thunderstorm at all is across southern portions of the area.
While PW values increase to around 1.5 inches this morning on a 40 kt h850 theta e feed, the feed weakens today, and weak forcing will limit the amount of moisture we will be able to squeeze out despite the efficient warm rain process.
Nonetheless, locally heavy downpours are possible.
With flow limited to 5 to n10 kts through the mid levels, stratus and areas of post-rain fog are likely to settle in overnight tonight.
The rather cloudy regime will coral temperatures with a 15 degree bracket this period, inside the normals for this time of year, below normal highs today and above normal lows tonight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now, WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1135 AM Sunday...
A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However, that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.
Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday, models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep some clouds around.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 625 AM Sunday...
While a sort of double-barrel low pressure system brings a couple rounds of rain showers today, one ongoing this morning, and then another this afternoon, the most impactful flight restrictions will not come until overnight tonight, when stratocumulus/stratus, and mist/fog will lower ceiling and visibility to MVFR and then IFR. MVFR stratocu is also forecast at times along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, today and across the north, CKB and EKN, later this afternoon into tonight, before it lowers farther overnight.
A thunderstorm is possible with the second round of showers this afternoon and evening, mainly south. Brief MVFR is possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR is possible within any thunderstorm.
light and variable to calm surface flow early this morning will become light, mainly south today, and then light and variable to calm again tonight. Moderate southwest flow aloft early this morning will become light southwest today, and then light west to northwest overnight tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within heavier showers today, while brief IFR VSBY restrictions are possible within any thunderstorms. Lowering of ceiling and visibility overnight tonight may vary. This is a lower confidence portion of the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms at times Wednesday into Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 10 sm | 67 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 61°F | 83% | 30.03 |
Charleston, WV,
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