Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 11:32 PM   Moonset 7:36 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 270625 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front brings a few showers in northeast West Virginia early this morning, and a warming trend that leads to hot afternoons Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A warm front pushing northeast through the area this morning will continue to generate a few showers in northeast WV as it pushes that way. Otherwise a mid level canopy of cloud will predominate much of the day with breaks, with an afternoon cumulus field beneath at least across the north making for a potpourri of cloud. There is a small chance for enough afternoon destabilization south of the warm front over northwest portions of the area for a pop up shower or thunderstorms, as ripples move through mid-upper level southwest flow.

Cleaner mid-upper level ridging building northward into the area tonight will lead to quite weather with clearing.

Despite the cloud cover, the passage of the warm front and a measure of downsloping should allow for temperatures to be a bit higher than Friday. Central guidance depicts highs about 2-4 degrees above those of Friday. On the other hand, clearing and lighter flow will allow for a slightly cooler night tonight, especially where valley decoupling can occur, but it will still be a mild night overall.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1158 AM Friday...

A large ridge of high pressure will be placed over the eastern 1/3 of the country Sunday with 500-mb height levels reaching 582-583 decimeters over the region. A surface high will be placed over Atlantic, bringing warm, southerly air over the region. This will translate to a summer-like pattern for the end of the weekend with high temperatures reaching the middle 80s in the lowlands and the 70s-80s in the mountains. This should be a dry and comfortable warmth with dew point temperatures staying in the 50s areawide. Fire weather shouldn't be too much of a concern with RH remaining anywhere from 35-45% Sunday afternoon. A pop- up thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out in the mountains, but most places will remain dry.

More of the same type of weather is expected Monday. In fact, record- breaking temperatures will be possible in the locations listed below:

CRW: record is 90, set in 1996 PKB: record is 86, set in 1991 BKW: record is 85, set in 2017 EKN: record is 87, set in 1996

A cold front will cross eastward through western Kentucky and Indiana Monday, placing our region in the warm sector. Despite this, the air will remain comfortable with dew points remaining in the 50s. Air temperatures will reach the upper 80s across the lowlands and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountains Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1158 AM Friday...

Rain chances will increase areawide Tuesday as a cold front crosses the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but widespread severe weather is still not expected. Flooding is also not expected due to the recent dry weather and the lack of support for heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tuesday as the cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will rebound back into the 80s again Wednesday with ridging returning aloft. Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms will exist Wednesday through the end of the work week with ripples of weak vorticity flowing around the ridge.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A warm front pushing northeast through the area early this morning will continue to trigger a few showers in northeast WV, with brief MVFR restrictions possible at CKB and EKN. MVFR and pockets of IFR ceilings sneaking up the spine of the Appalachians early this morning should stay east of EKN and BKW, but MVFR ceilings will eventually spill over into EKN later this morning as the showers pull out.

High stratocumulus/low altocumulus will be predominant through the day today, before breaking up tonight. An afternoon cumulus field is also likely at least across the north today, where a pop up shower or even thunderstorm could occur.

South to southeast surface flow will be gusty at times today, with gusts into the 15-20 kt range diminishing to 10-15 kts or vanishing tonight. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft could lead to low level wind shear at times, particularly when surface winds are not gusting.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset and extent of MVFR ceilings in and near the mountains this morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 04/27/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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