Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM   Moonset 3:22 PM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 1019 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.Tonight - East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.Monday - Northeast to east winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.Monday night - East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast to east winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - East winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - Northeast to east winds near 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Thursday - Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1019 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure just off the carolina coast will weaken as it lengthens eastward into the atlantic over the next few days. As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling overnight into the morning hours.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 29, 2024 - .
55 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 41 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 30 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 41 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 25 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 6 nm south of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 8 nm south of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 021633 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1233 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located off the Carolina coastline, allowing for continued easterly flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with an upper- level shortwave that will drift southward along the peninsula today, will lead to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region. Multiple rounds of spotty showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. To this effect, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
has placed the East Coast metro area under an Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for this afternoon. This means that for any given location within the ERO, there is at least a 5% chance that rainfall could exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of that spot.
Secondary risks with the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday, with the exception of the surface high's influence, which will drift eastward and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

By Tuesday, the trough axis will exit into the Atlantic waters, allowing the weather pattern to revert to a more diurnally-driven regime. Morning showers over the Atlantic will transition into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly over areas where steepened lapse rates juxtaposes pockets of enhanced low-level convergence.

The surface high will linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary, originating from low pressure over Canada, enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week.
South Florida will be positioned between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will shift the flow to southerly to west- southwesterly across much of the area. This may prove to be a ripe environment for intermittent periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely timeframe for development being in the afternoon during peak heating. The warm airmass combined with this flow over the peninsula will lead to a significant warming trend throughout the week, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses by late week. This situation will need to be monitored closely, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and south, as changes could necessitate major revisions to the forecast. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled weather is expected for a good part of the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at all sites this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across South FL.
Confidence of direct impacts remains limited at this time, but short-fuse TEMPOs could be issued as conditions deteriorate. Winds will remain out of the east at 15 kts, with chances of gusts up to 25 kts. SHRA over the Atlantic and immediate East Coast could remain a concern overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the workweek as breezy easterly winds gradually diminish in strength.
Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft range today, staying at or below 3 feet through the first half of the week. Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher seas and winds.

BEACHES
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Breezy easterly winds along the East Coast will result in a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will diminish as the week progresses and winds die down.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 88 78 89 / 50 60 50 60 West Kendall 74 89 74 91 / 50 60 50 60 Opa-Locka 76 89 76 91 / 50 60 40 60 Homestead 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 87 77 89 / 50 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 76 90 77 92 / 50 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 75 88 75 89 / 40 50 30 50 Boca Raton 76 88 76 89 / 40 50 40 50 Naples 74 92 75 94 / 50 60 50 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Tavernier Creek
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Sun -- 12:00 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:24 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:42 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     0.95 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:15 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:01 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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