Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fence Lake, NM
June 2, 2024 6:15 PM MDT (00:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:16 AM Moonset 3:32 PM |
FXUS65 KFGZ 022320 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 420 PM MST Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona through the first half of the coming week. Expect temperatures to warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday and Thursday. A weak low moving northward toward the region could being a few showers and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures later in the work week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
The remainder of today will feature gusty SW winds this afternoon as a trough continues to move east across the region. Gusts will range 20-30 mph.
Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure gradually building into the region with temperatures warming following this past weekend's brief drop in temperatures. The warming for Monday and Tuesday will still be slowed thanks to upper level clouds as a weak disturbance passes north of the region. Dry weather will persist through the period.
Wednesday and Thursday will bring some of the warmest weather of the season. Temperatures from Tuesday to Wednesday with high pressure centered overhead will jump by 5 degrees or more and likely warm another couple degrees by Thursday, becoming 10-15 degrees above normal. While this is happening, a low will be setting itself up off the coast of Baja California. Because of said low, it is worth noting that the deterministic NBM is running at the high end of guidance and increasing mid to upper level moisture could allow some cloud cover to start developing in the afternoon Thursday, holding temperatures back slightly.
Friday remains somewhat of a buffer day: the aforementioned low of the Baja California coast will start to slide north Friday based on ensemble guidance. This, combined with the eastward shifting high is resulting in some spread in models for conditions Friday. Temperatures from the deterministic NBM are running very high compared to the projected spread. More clouds and some perception chances that day pending the moisture input from the low could bring temperatures down a couple more degrees than currently forecast. That drop in temperature would pull the need for another day of heat related products...so stay tuned.
Moving into next weekend, confidence increases in precipitation chances for the Southwest US. Coverage still doesn't look widespread combined with moisture remaining elevated so more limited rainfall amounts from high based convection looks to be the main story. If you look at the CPC graphics, they indicate high odds in above normal precipitation chances for us, which makes sense given that this time of year should typically be dry, but don't let said graphics trick you into believing we are going to have widespread meaningful rainfall. In fact, with fuels continuing to dry and the threat of lightning with high based convection, new lightning starts from dry thunderstorms are a real threat at this time.
AVIATION
Monday 03/00Z through Tuesday 04/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 04/00Z through Thursday 06/00Z
Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds less than 10kts overnight and in the early morning hours. Winds generally variable and less than 15kts in the daylight hours, but trending west through northwest.
FIRE WEATHER
Today through Tuesday...A very dry pattern remains in place with afternoon humidity ranging from 8-20%. Moderate overnight recoveries will range from 30-70%. Southwest winds through Monday of 15-25 mph, turning west to northwest at 10-20 mph on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...The warmest weather yet this season is expected late this week with much lighter wind speeds. Daytime humidity will range from 8-15%. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains by Thursday afternoon. These chances spread west Friday into the weekend.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for AZZ005-006-037.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 420 PM MST Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona through the first half of the coming week. Expect temperatures to warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday and Thursday. A weak low moving northward toward the region could being a few showers and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures later in the work week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
The remainder of today will feature gusty SW winds this afternoon as a trough continues to move east across the region. Gusts will range 20-30 mph.
Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure gradually building into the region with temperatures warming following this past weekend's brief drop in temperatures. The warming for Monday and Tuesday will still be slowed thanks to upper level clouds as a weak disturbance passes north of the region. Dry weather will persist through the period.
Wednesday and Thursday will bring some of the warmest weather of the season. Temperatures from Tuesday to Wednesday with high pressure centered overhead will jump by 5 degrees or more and likely warm another couple degrees by Thursday, becoming 10-15 degrees above normal. While this is happening, a low will be setting itself up off the coast of Baja California. Because of said low, it is worth noting that the deterministic NBM is running at the high end of guidance and increasing mid to upper level moisture could allow some cloud cover to start developing in the afternoon Thursday, holding temperatures back slightly.
Friday remains somewhat of a buffer day: the aforementioned low of the Baja California coast will start to slide north Friday based on ensemble guidance. This, combined with the eastward shifting high is resulting in some spread in models for conditions Friday. Temperatures from the deterministic NBM are running very high compared to the projected spread. More clouds and some perception chances that day pending the moisture input from the low could bring temperatures down a couple more degrees than currently forecast. That drop in temperature would pull the need for another day of heat related products...so stay tuned.
Moving into next weekend, confidence increases in precipitation chances for the Southwest US. Coverage still doesn't look widespread combined with moisture remaining elevated so more limited rainfall amounts from high based convection looks to be the main story. If you look at the CPC graphics, they indicate high odds in above normal precipitation chances for us, which makes sense given that this time of year should typically be dry, but don't let said graphics trick you into believing we are going to have widespread meaningful rainfall. In fact, with fuels continuing to dry and the threat of lightning with high based convection, new lightning starts from dry thunderstorms are a real threat at this time.
AVIATION
Monday 03/00Z through Tuesday 04/00Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds overnight and in the early morning hours, otherwise, S-SW10-20g25kts.
OUTLOOK
Tuesday 04/00Z through Thursday 06/00Z
Expect VFR conditions. Light and variable winds less than 10kts overnight and in the early morning hours. Winds generally variable and less than 15kts in the daylight hours, but trending west through northwest.
FIRE WEATHER
Today through Tuesday...A very dry pattern remains in place with afternoon humidity ranging from 8-20%. Moderate overnight recoveries will range from 30-70%. Southwest winds through Monday of 15-25 mph, turning west to northwest at 10-20 mph on Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...The warmest weather yet this season is expected late this week with much lighter wind speeds. Daytime humidity will range from 8-15%. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in the White Mountains by Thursday afternoon. These chances spread west Friday into the weekend.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for AZZ005-006-037.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Albuquerque, NM,
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