Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271057 AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 357 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across northern Arizona today, with high elevation snow likely.
Gusty conditions will accompany any showers or storms through this evening. Warm and dry weather returns on Sunday and for much of the coming week.

DISCUSSION
A low pressure center was spinning over northeast Arizona during the morning hours, heading to the northeast. Ample moisture wrapped within the low was producing widespread precipitation across the northland, mainly in the form of snow above 6500 feet. As the low continues to slowly move eastward today expect rain and snow showers to continue with the main focus from the Mogollon Rim northward. As daytime heating progresses the atmosphere will destabilize with scattered thunderstorms developing. The snow level will gradually rise through the day climbing into the 7500 to 8500 feet range by late this afternoon as a milder air mass moves in behind the low. However, in heavier showers/thunderstorms the snow level could temporarily dip lower especially with any graupel showers. By late in the afternoon we should see diminishing shower activity along and west of a Flagstaff to Page line as drier air moves in behind the low but with showers continuing into the evening to the east of this line.

Starting Sunday and through the coming week...The low heads eastward and out of the state. Behind the low a mild and dry westerly flow will develop and hang across Arizona through the week. Look for mainly clear skies, high temperatures warming to seasonal averages and daily afternoon west to southwest breezes at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. We're heading back to our more typical spring weather regime.

AVIATION
Saturday 27/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...Periods of IFR/MVFR CIGS and VIS are likely in the High Country this morning due to scattered -SHSN/SHRA. Showers taper by 15Z with low CIGS and mountain obscuration continuing. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms return after 19Z with greatest chances along and east of I-17/Hwy 89 to the New Mexico border. Widespread VFR conditions return by 03Z with SKC. Expect west winds, 20-30 kts, after 16Z with stronger winds, 30-40 kts, along a KINW-KJTC line.

OUTLOOK
Sunday 28/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected for Sunday and Monday.
Anticipate west-northwest winds, 15-25 kts, on Sunday, followed by southwest winds, 15-25 kts, on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER
Today through Sunday...Rain and snow/ice pellet showers with scattered, afternoon thunderstorms are expected for today. Temperatures will remain cool with daytime highs forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees below average. Drier and warmer conditions return on Sunday with minimum humidity of 15 to 25%. Anticipate westerly winds, 20 to 30 mph, for today, followed by lighter west- northwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...A warming and drying trend continues through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be seasonal for the end of April with widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20% each afternoon.
Daytime southwest winds will remain breezy, 15 to 25 mph, for Monday and Tuesday, becoming stronger, 25 to 35 mph, on Wednesday.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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