Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 6:53 PM Moonrise 6:08 AM   Moonset 7:42 PM

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AMZ742 Coastal Waters Of Northwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1025 Am Ast Wed May 8 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 12 seconds. Numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 11 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Scattered showers. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: north 3 feet at 11 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 11 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Friday - East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 11 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 6 seconds. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Friday night - East winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 11 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet, occasionally to 4 feet. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Numerous showers in the afternoon. Sunday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ700 1025 Am Ast Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters - . The subtropical surface high-pressure north of the islands extending from the western to central atlantic promotes light to moderate east to northeast winds through Friday. Winds will then turn from the east to east-southeast from the weekend into early next week as the high pressure moves further eastward into the atlantic. Pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the atlantic waters and caribbean passages through the weekend. Unstable weather conditions will promote strong Thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.

FXCA62 TJSJ 081453 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 1053 AM AST Wed May 8 2024

UPDATE
Minor changes have been introduced to the forecast package. Additional QPF values were introduced across central and the western interior of Puerto Rico for this afternoon.

Forecast holds, there is a significant flood risk across the local islands due to trough aloft, plenty of moisture and saturated soils. Any rainfall will result in sharp raises along small streams and rivers as well as mudslides, pariculalry central Puerto Rico.

Continue to monitor NWS products, likely to issue Flood advisories and warnings this afternoon, among other products.

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 439 AM AST Wed May 8 2024/

SYNOPSIS...

The continuation of a wet and unstable weather pattern will maintain the risk of flooding between elevated and significant across the islands through this evening and may extend into Thursday evening. It's crucial to stay informed and take necessary precautions during this time. Although a mid- to upper-level ridge will slowly build across the Northeast Caribbean, afternoon convection will develop daily from Friday onward, mainly across the interior and western PR and downwind from the USVI. A drier air mass with possible African dust particles will arrive by the weekend and may extend into next week.

Pulses of northeasterly swells propagating across the Atlantic Ocean will promote a moderate risk of observing strong rip currents along the north and east-facing beaches of PR and the US Virgin Islands throughout the week.

SHORT TERM
Today through Friday

During the overnight period, doppler radar indicated showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the local waters and eastern Puerto Rico, where approximately 2 to 3 inches of additional rainfall fell.
A Flood Advisory was issued for municipalities such as Fajardo, Loiza, Luquillo, and Rio Grande. The Flood Warnings for area rivers (Rio Grande de Manati, Rio Grande de Arecibo, Rio Cibuco, and Rio De La Plata en Toa Alta) continue in effect throughout this morning because sensors reports indicated the rivers are receding but still elevated.

The forecast remains on track. A high pressure moving eastward across the central Atlantic will maintain light to moderate easterly winds at the surface through Thursday, while an upper-level trough swing across the area. Above-normal precipitable water values, ranging from 2.0 to 2.2 inches, accompanied by an upper-level trough moving from the west and below-normal mid-level temperatures (around -8 degrees Celsius) will maintain instability across the area, elevated risk of thunderstorms and an elevated to significant risk of flooding today and Thursday. As a result, a wet and unstable pattern is expected to persist through late tonight and may extend into Thursday afternoon based on the latest guidance. At this time, even though precipitable water values should start to return to near normal, models are still showing and keeping some decent rain accumulations for Thursday afternoon. Given the current situation of saturated soils and significantly elevated river streamflows, additional flooding and sudden mudslides cannot be ruled out of the forecast tomorrow. Any additional moderate to locally heavy rain poses a risk of dangerous flooding, including sudden mudslides and landslides in steep terrain areas. Additionally, thunderstorms may produce strong winds capable of causing tree falls, power line disruptions, and movement of unsecured objects. Therefore, residents and visitors are encouraged to stay weather-aware and informed about these potential hazards and closely monitor the forecast for any updates.

By Friday, the high pressure moves further east into the Atlantic, changing our surface wind flow to a more southerly/southeasterly one. Model guidance suggests a mid-to-upper-level ridge building across the area, temperatures aloft warm up a bit, and precipitable water values drop to near-normal levels potentially bringing relief from the current weather conditions. Any strong afternoon convection that develops across the interior and western sector of Puerto Rico should be by local effects and sea breeze fluctuations. Under this pattern, a warming trend will be likely with heat indices between 100-107 Fahrenheit or even higher, especially during the daily maximum heating, across the USVI and PR's urban and coastal areas.
In summary, more stable conditions are anticipated by the end of the week, but warmer temperatures and heat indices are very likely.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

Model guidance still suggests a mid- to upper-level ridge trying to build over the Northeast Caribbean from Saturday onward, promoting stable conditions and potentially bringing relief from the current weather conditions.

Model guidance also suggests a return to the climatological moisture values over the region, with the advection of occasional patches of enhanced moisture. Additionally, we are more likely to observe variable weather conditions with a mixture of sunshine/clear skies and clouds daily. Also, the NASA aerosol optical thickness (AOT) guidance one more time suggests the arrival of an air mass with possible African dust particles by the upcoming weekend, which may extend into next week. Meanwhile, intense heating, local effects, and sea breeze fluctuations each day will drive strong afternoon convection. Furthermore, the above-normal warmer sea surface temperature will also enhance the typical nighttime warm air convection. These frequent nighttime showers could affect the windward sections and local waters of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Combining high moisture content with the typical upper 80s to low 90s maximum air temperatures will result in heat indices between 100-107 Fahrenheit or even higher, especially during the daily maximum heating, across the USVI and PR's urban and coastal areas where no significant rain is observed. 

AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

Mainly VFR conditions expected the rest of the overnight period.
However, SHRA/TSRA developing across the local waters may cause -RA/VCSH across the area terminals. The potential for VCTS and showers are expected to increase around 16/18Z across all sites.
Tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds are possible btw 08/16z-22z at TJPS/TJSJ.

MARINE...

The subtropical surface high-pressure north of the islands extending from the Western to Central Atlantic promotes light to moderate east to northeast winds through Friday. Winds will then turn from the east to east-southeast from the weekend into early next week. Pulses of northeasterly swell will spread across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through the weekend.
Unstable weather conditions will promote strong thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening.

BEACH FORECAST...

Expect increasing seas of 4 to 5 feet across most of the local beaches in the Atlantic, mainly from the northeast, at 6 to 11 seconds. Seas will then increase at 4 to 6 feet with a wave period of 11-12 seconds, mainly from the northeast later this evening.
Therefore, we expect a moderate risk of strong rip currents from today to Friday across the north and east-facing beaches in the north and east-facing beaches in PR/USVI. Across the Caribbean, seas will range around 2 feet from the east to southeast at 6 to 8 seconds.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.

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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:21 AM AST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:57 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM AST     0.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:13 PM AST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:21 PM AST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Puerto Real
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Wed -- 03:16 AM AST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM AST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM AST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:58 AM AST     0.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM AST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM AST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM AST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:18 PM AST     1.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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