Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:08 PM   Moonset 8:07 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KEWX 270648 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms overnight into early Sunday * All hazards possible, including large (possibly very large greater than >2 inch) hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two

Although an upper level trough currently near the Four Corners region will move over the Central Rockies today, Central High Plains tonight, and Northern Plains on Sunday, troughiness remains near the Four Corners region through Sunday. The dryline will mix east into Val Verde County by midday, perhaps the Winter Garden region late afternoon, then drift back west this evening. Forcing ahead of these features along with heating should generate some showers under the capping inversion with some instability allowing for a few possibly strong thunderstorms through this evening. Gusty southerly winds along and east of US 281 could approach advisory levels, at times today.

As the upper level trough axis lifts into the Plains tonight, a Pacific front will overtake the dryline and move east into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country overnight. Forcing by these features will generate a line of showers and thunderstorms with supercells possible ahead of the line. Recent models have trended slower with this evolution due to the upper level dynamics tracking a little farther north. This may reduce the severe threat somewhat, however forecast soundings still show very high CAPE and strong shear. Thus, all severe hazards are possible, including large (possibly very large, greater than 2 inches) hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The line will reach the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning and then gradually weaken with loss of significant forcing by late morning into afternoon. Heating may allow for redevelopment mid afternoon just east of the stalled front near and east of the I-35 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate a few strong to perhaps severe storms are still possible in the afternoon.

High temperatures will be near normal east of the front/dryline and well above normal along/west of the front/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected west of the front/dryline each day, though especially on Sunday as humidities fall into the single digits and teens along with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusty. There is a potential of near critical fire weather conditions around midday on Sunday across the Rio Grande where winds may peak in the 15 to 20 mph range.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A few lingering showers and storms from Sunday's system will be possible across our far eastern counties Sunday night, though better chances for convection will likely be further east by this point.
West-southwesterly flow then sets up for the remainder of the long term period with embedded disturbances in the 500mb flow resulting in at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the CWA each day. Only weak ripples in the flow are noted in the global guidance on Monday and Tuesday, and therefore PoPs are fairly low and mainly confined to the eastern half of the CWA A stronger disturbance is then expected late Wednesday into Thursday with slightly higher and more widespread chances for showers and storms. PoPs from Friday onwards are a bit more uncertain and will be primarily driven by a cold front pushing into the region. At this point, guidance differs on whether the front will push completely through south-central Texas or stall near/over the area. The latter would likely bring cooler and more stable conditions heading into next weekend, while a stalled front would likely provide continuing chances for showers and storms.

For the time being, no particular day through the upcoming week stands out as a favorite for severe weather potential, but it doesn't take much for storms to reach that intensity this time of year so this is something we'll have to continue to monitor. As far as temperatures are concerned, above normal temperatures will prevail through the week with potential for cooler temperatures by the weekend if the aforementioned front is able to push completely through the area.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR CIGs overnight into Saturday will lift to VFR in the afternoon, then fall to MVFR in the evening into night. There is possibility of SHRA/TSRA on Saturday, however, have left mention out as PROBs are too low. Then, as a Pacific front moves east have introduced PROB30 mention at KDRT in the late evening and at the I-35 sites toward early Sunday morning. Breezy S to SE winds prevail through the period with a few gusts up to 30 KTs mainly during the daytime hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 85 69 80 69 / 20 60 90 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 69 81 67 / 20 50 90 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 69 82 69 / 20 40 80 20 Burnet Muni Airport 82 66 80 65 / 30 80 60 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 68 95 66 / 10 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 80 66 / 30 70 80 20 Hondo Muni Airport 87 67 86 65 / 20 60 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 69 81 67 / 20 50 80 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 72 81 71 / 10 20 60 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 69 82 69 / 20 50 70 10 Stinson Muni Airport 86 71 84 70 / 20 40 70 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,