Sunrise 6:49 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:09 PM   Moonset 8:07 AM

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FXUS64 KEWX 270524 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Key Point

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible Saturday night with large hail and damaging winds possible.

An upper level trough covers the western half of the country. Strong southeasterly flow in the boundary layer is keeping a warm, moist airmass in place over South Central Texas. Temperatures this afternoon range from the middle 70s to near 90 and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A dryline is just moving into Val Verde County. The upper trough will move slowly toward the east during this period. The dryline will shift back toward the west tonight.
This will keep our weather dry tonight. With strong southeasterly flow continuing skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures will be warm. Lows Saturday will be mostly n the 70s. The dryline will move back eastward again during the day Saturday reaching our western area by late afternoon. This will only provide enough lift for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area will stay dry. Tomorrow night a shortwave trough will move through the upper pattern and push the dryline farther east. This will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorm. POPs will increase over the northwest during the evening and spread south and east after midnight. The surface boundary will move into a warm, moist airmass with high CAPE and moderate deep layer vertical shear. Strong to sever storms will be possible. The greatest threat will be large hail with steep mid- level lapse rates, but damaging winds gusts and tornadoes are also possible. The best timing looks like late evening out west, after midnight I-35, and early Sunday morning Coastal Plains.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Incoming 12Z model data continues to indicate a line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will be moving across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau early Sunday morning. The cold front is not expected to make much eastward progress during the daytime hours on Sunday and as convection moves ahead of the front, a gradual weakening trend is expected as activity moves into the I-35 corridor. With the convection expected to weaken, the threat for severe weather is expected to gradually decrease through Sunday morning. For now, it appears the better chance for strong to severe storms will remain confined to areas west of the I-35 corridor, where the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe storms. Farther east for our counties along the I-35 corridor, the risk drops into the Marginal category (Level 1 of 5).
All modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail, high winds and tornadoes. For the afternoon hours, the higher rain chances will shift eastward, mainly east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. Low- level moisture surges back westward Sunday night, with a continued low chance for showers and storms from I-35 eastward.

Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the southwest continue on Monday and Tuesday. We will keep a fairly low chance (20-40%) for rain in the forecast, mainly for the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Strong to severe storms don't appear favored at this time, but given the time of year, we will continue to monitor the setup. A stronger upper level system is expected to move in late Wednesday or early Thursday and this may help boost the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. The medium range operational models continue to show some agreement in showing a fairly strong front moving in from the north sometime early Friday. If models remain in good agreement, we will need to increase our rain chances for Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR CIGs overnight into Saturday will lift to VFR in the afternoon, then fall to MVFR in the evening into night. There is possibility of SHRA/TSRA on Saturday, however, have left mention out as PROBs are too low. Then, as a Pacific front moves east have introduced PROB30 mention at KDRT in the late evening and at the I-35 sites toward early Sunday morning. Breezy S to SE winds prevail through the period with a few gusts up to 30 KTs mainly during the daytime hours.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 80 69 88 / 60 70 20 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 79 67 87 / 50 70 20 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 82 69 89 / 40 60 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 66 79 65 87 / 80 70 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 95 66 96 / 50 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 79 66 87 / 70 70 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 67 86 65 90 / 60 50 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 80 67 88 / 40 60 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 82 71 85 / 20 70 40 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 82 69 88 / 50 60 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 70 83 70 89 / 40 50 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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