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FXUS64 KEPZ 270908 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 308 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Windy conditions expected today, along with areas of blowing dust and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Winds subside Sunday with quiet weather conditions and warming temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with windy conditions expected for today. Quiet weather, with light afternoon breezes and warming temperatures through next work week.

Saturday

For today, the second and final upper level trough will swing across the Four Corners and Central Rockies regions. This system will pack a punch, bringing breezy to windy conditions to the Borderland.
Upper level ingredients coupled with a 65-75 knot 500mb jet will lead to gusty winds. At the surface, strengthening cyclogenesis throughout the afternoon hours will lead to surface troughing across New Mexico. Expect winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for portions of south-central New Mexico and far west Texas, including El Paso/Las Cruces metros, Deming, WSMR, White Sands NP, and the Sacramento Mtns. Once again, blowing dust will be a concern between 2-6PM, especially for areas closest to the International Border.

This system will likely be accompanied by higher moisture values.
However, with it's track further north across Colorado, confidence is low in portions of the area receiving any precipitation. That said, an isolated shower or two especially over the Gila can't be ruled out.

Sunday through Next Week

Quiet weather will return to the region with no major weather concerns Sunday through next week. Upper level flow regime becomes zonal as the jet slowly shifts to the north. Temperatures will respond, increasing back above the seasonal average, with light breezes expected during that timeframe. Models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley next Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a very minimal chance for thunderstorms locally.
Ensemble trends will need to monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The gusty winds will likely continue at least off and on tonight so all the TAF sites have at least some gusty winds from the west mentioned. The strongest winds tonight will be around KELP. The gusty winds will continue during the morning on Saturday and get stronger as we go into late morning and early afternoon. The winds on Saturday will be stronger than today's (Friday) winds, but probably not as strong as the winds we saw on Thursday. Having said that we did see a little blowing dust today, so I would imagine we will see a little more patch blowing dust tomorrow, but with a little lower winds speeds and a little lower temperatures, we won't see the same amount of dust as we saw on Thursday. Our ceilings tonight will remain unlimited. During the day on Saturday we will see some low or mid clouds, but ceilings should continue to be unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Fire Weather conditions will be ELEVATED to CRITICAL today. Upper level trough will pass through the region during the daytime hours.
This coupled with a stout mid to upper level jet and tightening pressure gradient at the surface will lead to wind conditions through the day. Thanks to modest low level moisture advection associated with this system, Min RH values will respond and remain above critical thresholds for NMZ110, NMZ111, and NM113 this afternoon. The remaining fire weather zones across south-central NM and west TX will see Min RHs in the 10-15 percent range. This coupled with gusty winds, will promote CRITICAL fire weather conditions. RED FLAG WARNING is in effect this afternoon and evening for NMZ112, TXZ056, and TXZ055. However, zones not included in the RFW will still experience ELEVATED fire weather conditions due to the gusty winds.

For the remainder of the period, through next week, fire weather conditions will remain ELEVATED each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. West-southwesterly flow will return on Wednesday. Dry air will remain in place, along with increases in wind each afternoon.
That said, Wednesday and Thursday will feature ELEVATED to NEAR- CRITICAL fire weather conditions.

Models continue to hint at the approach of the dryline from the east late next week, possibly reaching the Rio Grande Valley next Friday/Saturday. This would suggest at least a very minimal chance for thunderstorms locally. Ensemble trends will need to monitored in the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 75 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 72 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 73 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 42 76 47 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 30 52 35 / 10 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 68 46 76 48 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 59 39 68 43 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 70 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 41 75 43 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 50 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 74 43 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 46 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 66 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 51 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 41 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 43 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 71 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 36 66 39 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 35 64 38 / 10 10 0 0 Timberon 56 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 59 38 69 40 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 66 40 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 40 77 43 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 34 70 38 / 20 10 0 0 Hurley 63 36 72 40 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 65 40 75 43 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 60 40 71 43 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 62 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 69 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 69 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 41 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 41 71 44 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411-414>416-427.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ112.

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