Sunrise 6:59 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 11:33 PM   Moonset 8:07 AM

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FXUS64 KLUB 270533 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Tonight, a short-lived mid-level zonal regime will situate over the Southern Plains ahead of a trough in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, dry southwesterly winds will keep the dryline east of our CWA As the night progresses, surface winds in the eastern half of our CWA will shift southerly amid the strengthening low-level jet allowing the dryline to recede westward.

By tomorrow morning, a convergence boundary will form as a result of the low-level jet allowing the possibility of a few storms in the eastern half of our CWA Despite the surface instability, convective inhibition just above the surface will keep any convection elevated primarily posing a hail threat. The dryline will also move towards the Rolling Plains into the afternoon. Behind the dryline, moderately strong westerly winds will encompass much of the Caprock perhaps approaching Wind Advisory criteria. As the day continues, the trough will enter the Panhandle region with the maximized jet in our area around 0z. For more details, see the long-term discussion below.

PND

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The most notable weather in the long term forecast period will be tomorrow evening and night where strong to severe convection is possible in the the eastern Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas Panhandle along and east of the dryline. Latest CAMs and high resolution model guidance is pointing towards a slim area in the far eastern Rolling Plains and the extreme southeast Texas Panhandle where storms may initiate in the moist sector with forecast MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Combined with effective bulk shear around 50 knots, supercells capable of very large hail are likely if storms initiate in the forecast area. Dryline position will be key for tomorrow's severe weather potential. Even if storms initiate in our far eastern column of counties, E-NE storm motion of 30+ knots may not give convection enough time to organize and form strong mesocyclones in our area. Forecast hodographs favor right moving supercells, but some left movers may shoot north and produce large hail. Typically large hail is the main severe hazard when we see convection in the early stages and with as much instability as mentioned earlier, very large hail up to baseball size will be possible with any thunderstorms that initiate and have time to form vigorous updrafts. But again, we want to emphasize that chances of severe thunderstorms in the eastern Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle is low and coverage would likely be isolated but any thunderstorms that develop will most certainly intensify quickly. One last caveat is that models are showing a round of convection Saturday morning in the Rolling Plains which may result in a messy surface boundary situation which may effect timing and placement of afternoon convection for better or worse.
A remnant outflow boundary could enhance potential for convective initiation farther west or persistent cloud cover could limit daytime heating and reduce chances of any thunderstorm initiation.

After tomorrow evening/night, much quieter weather is expected with zonal flow aloft, increasing thickness, and breezy west to southwest winds leading to warming temperatures and low chances of precipitation until Wednesday when thunderstorm chances return but long range models are showing large variance. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s on Monday and then rising into the low 90s on Tuesday before long range models show increasing chances of precipitation and cooler air with a shortwave trough or at least a more meridional component in the upper level flow.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this TAF period. LLWS will continue through the overnight hours at CDS as a strong low level jet develops, with some TS also possible near CDS during the hours near and just after sunrise. Some MVFR CIGs may also approach CDS this morning, but confidence in stratus is low at the terminal.
Otherwise, west winds will strengthen at all sites by mid/late morning with gusts near or just above 30 kt likely through most of the afternoon. There is a small chance of TS near CDS once again late this afternoon, but should remain well east of the terminal.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040.

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