Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX
May 5, 2024 9:53 AM CDT (14:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:51 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM Moonset 5:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLUB 051133 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Quieter conditions were underway early this morning following last night's shortwave trough and storms. Water vapor imagery showed mid- level drying overspreading the region which is forecast to deepen through the day in response to height rises in SW flow. Down low, drying will be harder to come by as moist upslope flow within cool surface ridging keeps stratus locked in through much of the morning. This story changes this afternoon as the ridge pulls away allowing winds to veer S-SE which when combined with improved heating/mixing should erode our 1500-2000 foot thick layer of clouds. NBM's high temps were nudged lower over all but the far western zones where these low clouds will be fist to depart.
Height falls tonight preceding a vigorous upper trough will spur breezy southerly flow and deeper moisture advection. Upshot of this is another round of low clouds that will keep lows rather mild.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
An upper level trough moving out of the Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday will become increasingly negatively tilted. Copious amounts of low level moisture will be drawn into the region in the pre-dawn hours lasting through much of the morning off the caprock.
A dryline will quickly mix eastward after sunrise with extremely deep surface cyclogenesis over the Dakotas. This dryline will easily mix off the Caprock by late morning and likely east of the Rolling Plains by mid-afternoon. This will shove convective chances east of the region and leave the entire area in breezy southwest to west winds and dry conditions. The height gradient aloft will increase as a short wave trough ejects out of the central Rockies.
Winds aloft will also be on the increase but the main jet streaks will be from Colorado into Nebraska and the Dakotas. Therefore, winds aloft locally will not be incredibly impressive ultimately limiting the extent of surface winds. However, winds will be high enough for at least elevated fire weather conditions. The downslope component to the wind will be able to boost temperatures well into the 80s area wide. Warmer than seasonal average temperatures will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as cyclonic flow aloft encompasses the central CONUS. This will continue to promote surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies keeping surface conditions breezy and dry for West Texas. A break in the pattern will occur around late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Temperatures will be cooler to end the week but that may be the only high confidence area of the forecast for this time period. Models begin to diverge in their solutions for the upper level pattern late next week leading to a low confidence precipitation forecast.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Widespread IFR ceilings with some LIFR at LBB will improve to MVFR toward noon and eventually VFR a few hours later with light SE winds. Breezier S winds overnight are likely to usher in another bout of MVFR ceilings, although these may not reach CDS until very late in the TAF period.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 633 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Quieter conditions were underway early this morning following last night's shortwave trough and storms. Water vapor imagery showed mid- level drying overspreading the region which is forecast to deepen through the day in response to height rises in SW flow. Down low, drying will be harder to come by as moist upslope flow within cool surface ridging keeps stratus locked in through much of the morning. This story changes this afternoon as the ridge pulls away allowing winds to veer S-SE which when combined with improved heating/mixing should erode our 1500-2000 foot thick layer of clouds. NBM's high temps were nudged lower over all but the far western zones where these low clouds will be fist to depart.
Height falls tonight preceding a vigorous upper trough will spur breezy southerly flow and deeper moisture advection. Upshot of this is another round of low clouds that will keep lows rather mild.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
An upper level trough moving out of the Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday will become increasingly negatively tilted. Copious amounts of low level moisture will be drawn into the region in the pre-dawn hours lasting through much of the morning off the caprock.
A dryline will quickly mix eastward after sunrise with extremely deep surface cyclogenesis over the Dakotas. This dryline will easily mix off the Caprock by late morning and likely east of the Rolling Plains by mid-afternoon. This will shove convective chances east of the region and leave the entire area in breezy southwest to west winds and dry conditions. The height gradient aloft will increase as a short wave trough ejects out of the central Rockies.
Winds aloft will also be on the increase but the main jet streaks will be from Colorado into Nebraska and the Dakotas. Therefore, winds aloft locally will not be incredibly impressive ultimately limiting the extent of surface winds. However, winds will be high enough for at least elevated fire weather conditions. The downslope component to the wind will be able to boost temperatures well into the 80s area wide. Warmer than seasonal average temperatures will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as cyclonic flow aloft encompasses the central CONUS. This will continue to promote surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies keeping surface conditions breezy and dry for West Texas. A break in the pattern will occur around late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Temperatures will be cooler to end the week but that may be the only high confidence area of the forecast for this time period. Models begin to diverge in their solutions for the upper level pattern late next week leading to a low confidence precipitation forecast.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Widespread IFR ceilings with some LIFR at LBB will improve to MVFR toward noon and eventually VFR a few hours later with light SE winds. Breezier S winds overnight are likely to usher in another bout of MVFR ceilings, although these may not reach CDS until very late in the TAF period.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
Lubbock, TX,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE