Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:19 PM Moonrise 10:27 PM   Moonset 7:15 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KVEF 270153 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 655 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and isolated storms across much of the area today as a potent system moves through. In our southwestern zones that remain dry, strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph are forecast.
Most of the precipitation and wind activity will wane tonight, with lingering overnight showers in parts of Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave Counties. Dry and breezy conditions resume tomorrow and persist through next week as temperatures warm above normal.

UPDATE
The bulk of today's precipitation has moved off to the east into Northern Arizona. What remains is isolated showers and thunderstorms, which should continue into the evening. The strongest of these storms have produced frequent lightning, graupel, and brief heavy rainfall. Most of southern Nevada and southeast California reported between .1 and .4 inch of precipitation today. Sections of northwest Arizona and Lincoln County reported between .5 and 1 inch of rain. Wind Advisories remain in effect for parts of Inyo and San Bernardino Counties into the evening, but it seems that these will likely be allowed to expire on time as the system moves east and winds decrease. Twentyfour hour peak wind gusts of over 40 mph were reported in the Owens Valley and most of San Bernardino County.
Tomorrow's weather appears to be overall warmer, dryer, and less windy compared to today.

SHORT TERM
Today and tonight.

The most active weather of the forecast period will occur over the next 12-16 hours as impressive trough pushes through the area. As it does, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over all but our far southwestern locations. Currently, a band of showers and a few storms extends from N Mohave County down through S Clark County and into NE San Bernardino County along the cold front.
The southern edge of this line has shows the most convective activity, with a few more intense cells and lightning. This will be an area (E San Bernardino, S Clark, and W Mohave Counties) to watch for stronger outflow winds, possibly 40-50 mph, as daytime heating and ongoing gradient winds increase DCAPE values. Behind the front, anticipate scattered showers and storms to linger throughout the daylight hours, driven by diurnal heating under the colder air aloft. These could also contain gusty outflow winds, lightning, and possibly some small hail. The bulk of the post-frontal activity should diminish around sunset, but subtle vort maxes wrapping around the upper-low will keep scattered shower chances around Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave Counties through the night. In terms of precipitation amounts, not expecting anything overly impactful.
Chances of seeing 0.50" or more are less than 50% everywhere except for the high terrain of high terrain of Lincoln, Clark, and northern Mohave Counties, all of which can handle rain amounts of that magnitude. The only area of potential concern is Death Valley, where chances of 0.50" in 6 hours is 30-40% on some of the higher terrain.
This has potential to cause minor flooding in and around the park, given how sensitive the area is to rainfall. Up on Mt. Charleston, snow levels around 7,500 ft mean that some minor snow accumulations are possible. Latest NBM gives Kyle and Lee Canyons a 50% chance of a dusting to 2", though the recent warmth may make it hard for snow to stick on the roads, at least initially.

On the southwestern fringes of this system, westerly winds have been cranking throughout the morning hours. Wind gusts of 50-65 mph have been reported from the southern Owens Valley down to Twentynine Palms, along with periods of reduced visibility due to blowing dust.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Owens Valley until 8 PM this evening, while the advisory for most of our San Bernardino zones expires at 11 PM. Expect gusts of 45-60 mph to continue during this time, particularly from Barstow down to the Twentynine Palms area.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Thursday.

By tomorrow afternoon, today's system will be ejecting into the central plains, leaving us under drier northwesterly flow aloft.
Other than some 10% rain chances in far eastern Mohave County, Saturday is shaping up to be a pleasant day. Highs will be a few degrees below normal, with most of the area in the 70s and low 80s, but northwest winds will be breezy at 15-25 mph. Dry conditions prevail through the rest of the weekend and next week as upper-level flow gradually becomes more zonal. This keeps the area breezy and allows temperatures to steadily rise. By mid-week, highs are forecast to be around 5 degrees above normal for early May.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Variable gusty outflow winds, rain, lightning, and lower CIGS at the terminal area will continue for much of the rest of the afternoon. CIGS will be at there lowest and around 5-6 kft thru 22Z this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered after 22Z but will remain through the evening hours. Vicinity showers and lower CIGS will dissipate during the overnight hours with winds shifting back to the northwest, a direction which they will favor through Saturday afternoon. Winds will decrease and be more diurnally driven Saturday evening and through the day on Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds at KDAG will favor a westerly direction with 30 to 40 knot wind gusts persisting through the evening hours. A front continues to push through southern Nevada, driving a band of showers and thunderstorms through the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley through the afternoon hours. 5 to 7 kft CIGS, variable gusty outflow winds, rain, and lightning will be the primary impacts associated with these storms. The Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will be impacted by these showers and thunderstorms through 22Z, whereas the Colorado River Valley sites will see convection through 01Z this afternoon. Behind this main band, vicinity showers will continue to linger around the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites throughout the evening hours. Winds at these sites will decrease overnight and favor a more west-northwesterly direction.
Northwest will be favored Saturday afternoon then becoming more diurnally driven Saturday evening through Sunday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Las Vegas, NV,