Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:22 PM Moonrise 1:16 AM   Moonset 11:05 AM

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FXUS65 KVEF 302233 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 333 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another day of warm temperatures, mostly clear skies, and afternoon breezes today before a weather system briefly moderates temperatures and returns gusty north-northwest winds to the forecast area. Temperatures will warm once again through the remainder of the work week before another weather system approaches late weekend into early next week.


SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday.

Mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures continue this afternoon. Breezy winds expected across the area as weak disturbances pass through the forecast area along our dry northwesterly flow aloft. On Wednesday, temperatures will drop back toward seasonal averages and gusty north-northwest winds will pick up as a result of a closed low pushing through the Intermountain West and Great Basin. This system will be dry, meaning no precipitation is expected for our forecast area.

This wind will then concentrate along the Colorado River Valley on Thursday, resulting in the strongest winds from Laughlin / Bullhead City to Needles as well as hazardous boating conditions at Lake Mohave.


LONG TERM
Friday through next Tuesday.

Warm and dry conditions continue for the end of the work week into the weekend with above-average high temperatures and single-digit afternoon relative humidities for the entire forecast area.

Uncertainty continues in the long term, though this is better illustrated by the NBM this afternoon. On Sunday, the Deterministic NBM shows a drop in temperatures to 8-10 degrees below seasonal averages. For Las Vegas, the 25th percentile shows a high temperature of 72F and a 75th percentile of 82F on Sunday. There remains intermodel uncertainty regarding the depth, speed, and location of a closed low as it pushes into the north-central West Coast. The GFS ensemble means continue to indicate that the center of the low will push through southern Nevada, resulting in widespread rainfall, while the ECMWF ensemble means continue to indicate that the center of the low will remain a bit further north as more of Great Basin show. The ECMWF solution still increases PoPs for our forecast area, but they're focused in our northern zones including northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln counties. Will continue to work out details regarding this weekend's system through the week.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light winds favoring a northeast-to- east direction will gradually rotate around to the southwest by late afternoon. While occasional gusts to 15kts may be experienced while the winds are from the east or southeast early this afternoon, most of the gustiness is not expected until after becoming more southwesterly. Light winds return by late evening.
Wednesday morning, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop after 15Z as a disturbance moves into the Great Basin. VFR conditions persist through Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most regional TAF sites will see southwest-to-west winds with gusts to 20kts this afternoon and early evening. KBIH will be the exception where northwest to north winds of less than 20kts are expected into this evening. Lighter winds are forecast overnight, followed by gusty northerly winds developing Wednesday morning. Besides a few clouds AOA 10kft AGL along the Sierra, mainly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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