Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 1:05 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KFGZ 022054 AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 155 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions continue this afternoon and again Friday. However, wind speeds begin to increase Saturday, becoming strong on Sunday, especially north and east of the Mogollon Rim. This will be mainly dry pattern, the main impacts will be the winds and a noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION
A fair and mild day is expected for the rest of today and again Friday. Daytime winds will remain fairly light, but a few areas in the High Country may see gusts from 20-25 mph. Things start to turn much windier over the weekend, as a strong trough impacts the west.

A deep, late-season upper low will enter Northern California on Saturday, then will move east-southeast through the Great Basin on Sunday and across the Rockies on Monday.

This trajectory will keep us fairly dry, but will be a major wind producer, especially on Sunday, as a cold front moves through our area. We expect winds to hit just under Wind Advisory criteria on Saturday. However, Sunday will feature a fairly large area of Wind Advisory criteria, maybe some High Wind Warning criteria east of Flagstaff.

Additionally, low relative humidity values will occur within the areas featuring the strongest winds Sunday afternoon. There has been some discussion concerning fuels and how dry we actually are, with lowland grasses already curing, but a robust green-up now underway on the Mogollon Rim. At the very least, areas north and east of the Mogollon Rim may be near Critical Fire Weather conditions for Sunday afternoon, but further analysis of fuels may necessitate a Red Flag Warning.

After our cool day on Sunday, winds will back off a bit, but will remain breezy into the early part of next week. We remain dry and temperatures will recover to near normal values.

AVIATION
Thursday 02/18Z through Friday 03/18Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with isolated high clouds after 21Z. Look for W-SW winds 10-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts throughout the afternoon. Lighter winds return after 06Z.

OUTLOOK
Friday 03/18Z through Sunday 05/18Z
VFR conditions will persist through the outlook period, with increasing cloud cover expected on Sunday. W-SW winds of 5-15 kts forecast for Friday, before gusty winds return over the weekend. Wind gusts 25-35 kts possible on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Friday and Saturday...Warm/dry weather expected to continue. Look for west-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday, becoming south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values will range between 10-30%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions expected on Sunday. Expect southwest winds 25-35 kts, gusting 40-50 kts. Localized areas along higher terrain could see stronger winds.
Temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday, with breezy afternoon conditions.

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Albuquerque, NM,