Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 271007 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 607 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
We can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
600 AM Update...The going fcst is in pretty good shape. Made some downward tweaks to PoPs as radar indicates no upslope activity across the NC mtns. Low to mid level clouds will hanging tough this morning possibly into the early afternoon.

A dirty ridge will continue to dominate the pattern over the east coast thru the period. Copious amts of mid to high clouds will cross the FA associated with this ridge today, while sfc high pressure situated off the midAtl coast brings in Atl moisture flux and periods of low clouds. Likely will see some scattering of clouds during the afternoon east of the mtns, yet the BR escarpment will be under the gun for continued upslope cloudiness and perhaps a weak shower or two. The increasing insol will allow for high temps right arnd normal, while mins also drop off with normal diurnal curve.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 3:05 AM EDT Saturday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on Sunday with broad upper ridging centered over the Eastern CONUS and broad, southern-stream upper trofing well to our west. Over the next couple of days, the upper ridge will remain largely in place as the upper trof closes off an h5 low and lifts it NE and over the western Great Lakes. By the end of the period early Tuesday, an embedded upper shortwave will approach our area from the west and help push the upper ridge east. At the sfc, very broad high pressure will be centered just off the NC Coast as the period begins early Sunday. Over the next 48 hrs or so, the high will gradually slide southward and remain centered just off the SE Coast. This will keep warm/dry SLY low-level flow over our area thru the period. Towards the end of the period early Tuesday, a weak cold front will approach our CWA from the west and begin to move into our western zones. There's a pretty good chance that our western- most zones will see some sct showers before the period ends at 12z on Tues morning, but it's doubtful that they will see any thunder until the afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures start out a few degrees above climatology on Sunday and warm to roughly 4 to 8 degrees above climo by Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 2:55 AM EDT Saturday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on Tuesday with an embedded upper shortwave moving into our area from the west and helping to flatten the upper ridge. In its wake, the upper ridge will gradually amplify again as a series of northern-stream upper shortwaves translates eastward towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions.
By the end of the period late next week, the broader upper trof will dig further southward but remain to our NW. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered off the Southeast Coast as a weak cold front moves into our area from the west. Most of the long-range guidance still has this front moving thru our CWA on Tuesday, with what's left of the boundary moving offshore by early Wednesday. We'll likely get a round of sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening, with better coverage the closer you get to the NC/TN Border. In the front's wake, we'll remain under warm, SLY low-level flow with the sfc high remaining nearly stationary offshore. This will be similar to a summer-time pattern with chances for diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday. Towards the end of the period late next week, a more robust low is progged to eject out of the Plains and bring a stronger cold front to our region as the period is ending. Temperatures will remain well-above climatology thru the period.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR CIGs continue at KAVL this morning thru daybreak, possibly lingering till noon. Lowering VSBY to MVFR is also possible at KAVL arnd daybreak for a couple hrs. KHKY could see MVFR CIGs develop arnd daybreak persisting thru the morning hours before lifting to VFR. Otherwise, expect low to mid level VFR CIGs elsewhere into the late afternoon/evening. Winds become and remain more se/ly with a limited gust potential today as a strong sfc high centers and broadens off the midAtl coast.

Outlook: Drying is expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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