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FXUS64 KLZK 270803 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 303 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 2 AM CDT, a large complex of showers and thunderstorms have been moving across the far eastern flank of the state to the east and are beginning to make their way across the Mississippi River into Tennessee and Mississippi. A few other non-severe complexes of storms have began to develop across western Arkansas and are traveling eastward.

TODAY:

The trifecta of an upper lvl trof over the Southwestern region of the CONUS, a robust 80 to 90+ knot jet axis which will traverse through the base of the trof, and a parameter space at the sfc occupied by a deepening sfc low pressure center across the OKlahoma/Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas region with an attendant southward extending cold front/dry line and northeastward extending stationary boundary across Kansas and Iowa will allow a warm, unstable, and moisture-rich airmass to create a near storm environment which will present a moderate risk for severe weather off to the west of Arkansas across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas where all modes of severe weather will be likely on Saturday into Saturday night.

Closer to home across Arkansas, rain and thunderstorms will be possible statewide, but will lack the ingredients overall on Saturday to present a significant widespread severe threat; however with that being mentioned, a few strong to severe storms will be possible throughout the day, especially later Saturday afternoon along and northwest of a line on the I-30 corridor from Texarkana to Little Rock and continuing along and northwest of a line from along the Highway 167 corridor from Little Rock to Searcy to Walnut Ridge to Corning. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms statewide on Saturday, but a greater concentration of convection will be noted across western Arkansas with a few storms producing damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT:

The sfc low pressure center will transition northeast into central Kansas and the attendant boundaries of a southward extending cold front and northeastward extending stationary boundary will open up a parameter space across Arkansas which will be favorable for all modes of severe weather. In the early morning hours of Sunday, likely strong to severe convection will be moving from Oklahoma into Arkansas. The greater threat for severe weather on Sunday will be as this activity moves out of the CWA and most of the state, especially the western 2/3rds of Arkansas will be able to become unstable despite the morning thunderstorm activity that will travel from west to east across the state.

At the moment, all modes of severe weather will be possible on Sunday from damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes across the state. The magnitude of how much of each mode of severe weather is still in question as a multitude of CAMS solutions are presenting uncertainty. However, CAMS have agreed that the shear or SRH will be in place and plentiful across western and central Arkansas with large looping hodographs that will necessary for the development of rotating supercells. The parameter which remains in question at the current time is just how much instability or MUCAPE will be present across state and if storm mode remains discrete with supercells presenting a threat of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds or the other possibility of clusters or lines of storms which would still present a limited, isolated tornado threat, but be more likely to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Regardless of which outcome of storm mode and which hazards become dominant on Sunday into Sunday Night... Arkansas will need to be vigilant and have their severe weather plans ready to put into action at a moment's notice along with having multiple ways to receive the latest watches and/or warnings.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Perturbed upper flow wl be in place acrs the Cntrl US early in the PD, w/ a pair of upper low systems located over the Upper Midwest and Pac-N/W. Locally, a stagnant warm and moist airmass wl be in place acrs the Mid-South and greater extent of the FA, w/ a stationary frnt positioned from W to E acrs the AR/MO border region, demarcating cooler and drier air acrs Srn MO. Early on in the new work week, upper level flow is set to weaken and the stronger polar jet should recede Nwrd towards the US/Canada border. Daily rain chances Mon and Tues wl be largely diurnal and focused along the stationary bndry over the Nrn periphery of the state.

Wed thru Thurs, the aforementioned Pac-N/W upper low wl begin to move Ewrd acrs the Cont Divide, and mean S/Wrly H500 flow wl overspread the Srn Cntrl US. Lee cyclonic sfc flow is set to develop along the antecedent sfc bndry. Stronger low-lvl ascent invof the developing sfc low, and broad WAA/isentropic ascent wl drive more widespread PoPs Wed and Thurs.

Late in the PD, Fri, long range guidance is indicative of a cdfrnt moving thru the Plains and approaching the FA. Uncertainties remain on timing and evolution of the frnt this late in the fcst, however, another round of widespread rain and thunderstorms along the frnt wl be possible Fri into Sat if fcst patterns remain consistent over the next few days.

Expect warm and muggy condns thru the long term PD, w/ daily high and low temps residing above normal values.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals to begin the forecast period. Flight category will become degraded with lowering CIGS early Saturday morning across all sites to MVFR flight category through midday on Saturday before lifting to VFR flight category by Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will gust in excess of 25 knots across all terminals for the majority of the period beginning late Friday night throughout the day on Saturday. Low level wind shear will be a concern across the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 80 65 77 64 / 80 40 60 100 Camden AR 84 67 81 63 / 40 10 50 90 Harrison AR 77 63 72 58 / 70 50 90 70 Hot Springs AR 82 67 78 62 / 70 20 80 90 Little Rock AR 84 67 81 66 / 70 20 60 90 Monticello AR 86 65 83 67 / 30 10 30 70 Mount Ida AR 80 65 77 61 / 60 30 90 90 Mountain Home AR 78 64 74 60 / 80 40 80 80 Newport AR 84 66 80 65 / 60 30 30 90 Pine Bluff AR 85 66 81 65 / 50 10 40 90 Russellville AR 80 65 77 62 / 80 40 80 80 Searcy AR 82 64 80 64 / 70 30 50 90 Stuttgart AR 84 66 80 66 / 50 20 40 90

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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