Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 10:59 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 703 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 703 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - A coastal trough will move inland today, then high pressure remains in control into early next week. Late in the week, a cold front may attempt to move through the area.

FXUS62 KMHX 271125 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 725 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A coastal trough will move inland today, then high pressure remains in control into early next week.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 715 AM Saturday...

Mid and upper level ridging will move directly overhead today, while at the SFC, a strong 1030mb+ high will be centered off the New England coast. Closer to home, a weak coastal trough was noted offshore.

Today's forecast challenges will be 1) the coastal trough, and any associated shower activity, and 2) low-mid level moisture trapped beneath the ridge, and what impact this will have on temps. Based on satellite trends, it appears model guidance isn't picking up on the extent of the cloudiness as well, and I've increased clouds through the day. Assuming the increased cloudcover trend holds, temps today won't reach the full potential of the expected low-level thicknesses, and should end up near what we saw for highs yesterday (maybe even a touch cooler for some). Regarding the coastal trough, it doesn't appear to be as pronounced as other troughs we've seen in the past, but it comes through during peak heating and as low-mid level moisture increases. Despite ridging aloft, I wouldn't be surprised to see a shower, or two, develop across southwestern sections of ENC. HRRR guidance gives a 10-30% chance of showers.
It's not the best signal, but I bumped pops up a bit in that area to account for the potential. However, with negligible instability forecast, and weak forcing, the impact is expected to be minor.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 215 AM Saturday...

Upper level and surface ridging forecast over the area tonight supports a high probability of quiet weather. It still appears likely that skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with low-mid level moisture trapped beneath the ridge. This plus a modest return flow suggests lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight compared to this morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday

- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

A glorious end to the weekend with high pressure still in place over the entirety of North Carolina. Expect a few clouds in the morning, particularly over the Outer banks but these will become less with time. High temperatures near 80 degrees inland with mid 70s along the coast.

The week will begin on Monday with the high pressure that was camped offshore over the weekend beginning to slide southward into a position more consistent with a traditional Bermuda High.
This will allow southerly flow to come out of the Caribbean and overspread the southeastern US. This will kick off a period of above normal temperatures with highs reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to approach from the west with rain chances holding off until overnight Tuesday night.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on Wednesday afternoon and with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Despite this moving through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Friday and Saturday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Models differ in how quickly the front will approach from the west so for now low chances (20-25%) for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the afternoon hours, Friday and Saturday. Temperatures slightly cooler but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

Mid-level clouds (7-10k ft) have continued to spill east into Eastern NC over the past few hours. Based on satellite and model trends, it appears likely that these clouds will stick around for much of the day. CIGs are likely to stay VFR. However, as a coastal trough tries to work inland, there may be a brief period of MVFR CIGs . Because of the low probability, I'll continue to keep sub-VFR conditions out of the TAFs for now. By this evening, drier air is forecast to move into the area, which would tend to lessen the cloud coverage. With the above- mentioned trough, a few SHRA may attempt to develop during the afternoon hours, mainly across southwestern sections of ENC.
Like the MVFR risk, the probability is low, and I'll continue to keep SHRA out of the TAFs for now.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

A coastal trough will move west through area waters today, leading to NE/E winds becoming SE/S by this evening. The "strongest" winds (10-15kt) are expected to be from now through through early this afternoon thanks to a modest gradient along the advancing coastal trough. Once the trough moves inland, the gradient will relax, and winds are forecast to lay down to 5-10kt. Despite the winds laying down, the background northeasterly swell from low pressure out in the Atlantic will keep seas elevated (3-5ft) through at least this afternoon, and potentially into this evening. It's marginal for SCA headlines, though, and we'll continue to re-evaluate whether or not the ongoing SCAs are still needed.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Newport River
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Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:33 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:49 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newport River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,