Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 11:53 PM   Moonset 8:16 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KMEG 271136 AAA AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend with rain chances returning late Sunday night. A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Tuesday before daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms return midweek. Wet and mild conditions will persist through Saturday with seven day rainfall totals ranging from 2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A broad upper level trough will slowly pull northeast into the Central Plains today, becoming negatively tilted this afternoon.
While this system will bring severe weather concerns to much of the Plains, local impacts will be minimal thanks to a strong upper level ridge centered over southeast CONUS. Warm temperatures will remain through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s.

On Sunday, a shortwave will eject from the aforementioned trough and approach the Mid-South. A line of showers and thunderstorms should develop near the ArkLaTex region by midday and push eastward. Both ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles depict only a 30% chance of > 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River late Sunday evening. Instability values will continue to wane through the overnight hours, resulting in a limited severe weather threat.
Any severe storms that do form will likely remain along and west of the MS River with damaging winds the primary concern.

Precipitable Water values Sunday night into Monday will increase to about 1.6 inches, which is around the 99th percentile for this time of year. As such, heavy rainfall will be a concern. The Weather Prediction Center has included much of the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday. Storm total precipitation upwards of 2 inches will be possible, mainly along and west of the MS River.

Wet and warm conditions will remain through the work week as several shortwaves, embedded within zonal flow aloft, transverse the region. Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday, allowing for an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall. The next chance for a cold front will likely be on Saturday. Until then, make sure you have your umbrella handy.

ANS

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong southerly surface winds and LLWS will remain the primary aviation weather impacts over the next 30 hours.

Warm advection scattered -SHRA should diminish in coverage as the mixing layer deepens with daytime heating and weakening of the low level jet (FL020 winds). The atmosphere will otherwise remain capped to deep convection through 18Z Sunday, keeping TSRA chances below mentionable levels in the TAF. TCF and Extended TCF charts appear on target.

PWB

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Memphis, TN,