Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 5:31 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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FXUS64 KMEG 200828 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 328 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Warm and dry weather will remain across the Mid-South through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as high pressure remains over the area. A pattern shift will take place late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as several disturbances move over the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and will extend through Memorial Day under this unsettled pattern.

DISCUSSION
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Current temperatures at this hour are in the low 60s to low 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface and clear skies across the Mid-South. A thin cirrus shield will slowly moving in from the west heading closer to sunrise. This thin shield should limit fog development in areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
Areas along the Tennessee River and areas near lakes will continue to fog with reduced visibilities. Shortly after sunrise, fog will lift as wind speeds increase and radiational cooling decreases.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging remains in place over the Mid- South resulting in warm and benign weather through Tuesday. South winds and the aforementioned ridge will continue to usher in warm, dry air from the southwest leading to a pretty warm start to our week with many areas across the region seeing afternoon highs near to slightly above 90 degrees. Our main weather story will begin late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as ridging begins to weaken and build east. A weak surface low looks to set up over the southern, Upper Mississippi Valley with an attached cold front. This front looks to begin pushing showers and thunderstorms, northwest to southeast, across the Mid-South beginning early Wednesday morning.

These showers and thunderstorms will be moving into a pretty decent convective environment with surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-6 Bulk Shear values around 35 kts, mid-level lapse rates 6.8+ C/km, and a decent swath of warm air advection giving extra lift. The best severe environment looks to pan out in areas along and west of the Mississippi River along a slightly pronounced shortwave. The Storm Prediction Center has these areas highlighted under a Slight (15%) Risk for Wednesday. We are monitoring models and convective parameters closely as uncertainty still remains pretty high and parameters remain mainly surface based. Bottom line, a conditional chance for severe weather exists Wednesday.

By Friday, the aforementioned cold front looks to lift north as a warm front giving support to continued shower and thunderstorm movement across the Mid-South. Several shortwaves along quasi- zonal flow look to move over the Mid-South through Memorial Day, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. We are carrying 30-40% PoPs in the grids through Memorial Day. Looks like we'll be having a pretty active end to our May. Be on the lookout...

AEH

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as a midlevel ridge builds in. Light winds overnight should pick up to 6-9kts from the south/southeast by mid morning Monday.

CAD

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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