Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 7:52 AM

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FXUS64 KMRX 270719 AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 319 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Winds diminish in the mountains and foothills this morning, the Wind Advisory will continue unchanged.

2. Warm temperatures today despite some high clouds.

Discussion:

Current wind gust speeds are currently near their peak, with both Cove Mountain and Camp Creek reporting 52 mph. This is likely due to a nocturnal jet, so as we near sunrise, wind speeds should diminish.
This trend is also shown by the latest CAMS. The Wind Adviosry will remain unchanged, continuing until 6 AM.

A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, across eastern GA and the Carolinas. High clouds associated with a weak shortwave trough on the west side of the ridge will be mainly broken through the morning, with some reduction in coverge this afternoon as the shortwave trough exits. With the southerly low level flow and decreasing cloud cover, highs today will be warm, in the 75 to 80 range in most Valley locations. Tonight will be mostly clear, and not as windy in the mountains as the pressure gradient slackens.
Lows will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures, highs up to 10 degrees above normal expected through the period.

2. Dry through Monday, but then daily chances for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday. Rainfall amounts not that high but could occur each day from Tuesday morning through Friday.

Discussion:

Upper level ridging stays in place over the southeastern states from Sunday into early next week, keeping forecast area rain free and warm through Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday significantly above normal.

To the northwest Sunday, a closed upper low will move from eastern Colorado into the northern plains with a cold front extending southward through the Ozarks and just west of the Mississippi River in Arkansas by early Monday morning. Monday morning the upper low will be in the western Great Lakes and Canadian border with the trailing cold front approaching the Mississippi River. As ridging stays strong temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 80s Monday in the Tennessee Valley. Tuesday the front shifts further east as an upper low goes east across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. A southern stream shortwave will be moving east through the deep south. The front itself is likely to get held up to the NW and there may not be a FROPA. But the southern stream shortwave should result in good coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. The severe potential with this system still looks low and expect only general thunder across the eastern Tennessee Valley at this time.

Wednesday through Friday next week the upper pattern looks less amplified across the CONUS, more westerly low level flow and broad ridging over the southeastern US. Areas from the Arklatex region, east into the Tennessee valley will lie below a southwesterly upper flow and returning moisture off the Gulf. As flow gradually becomes more southwest and weak shortwaves move through they will result in some scattered afternoon showers and storms each day, with rain chances better in the higher terrain and also across northern areas closer to a stalled front. Rainfall amounts overall will be light through the period so no flooding expected.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

LLWS will be included at TYS and TRI where surface winds are calm and winds aloft are around 30 kt from the S-SE. This is expected to end around 12Z when winds aloft diminish and surface winds increase. Mainly high clouds will be over the area today, broken most of the time then scattered late in the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 61 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 79 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.

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