Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:30 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 270536 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 844 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Storms have waned tonight across the region, with the rest of the night expected to be pretty quiet in the wake of the exiting convection. A few storms could try to redevelop late tonight within a modest moisture return regime, mainly after midnight, across portions of far southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas...though a bulk of the activity looks to remain out of our area. Any storms that do for have a low chance to become severe, with large hail the primary threat. Previous update made updates to PoPs/Wx/Thunder grids accounting for the trends in convection through the late afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape with a mild night in store across the region.

Bowlan

LONG TERM
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Overall coverage tomorrow morning will remain low with ongoing isolated warm advection activity. By afternoon, storms will have developed to the west along the dryline as an upper level system begins to move out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the central Plains. Severe potential will increase across parts of E OK from mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening. All modes of severe will be in play during this time. The severe threat will continue across the area for the overnight hours, but a transition to more of a heavy rainfall/flooding threat still appears likely Saturday night. Favorable low level and upper level jet structures will interact with deep moisture over the area (PWATS 1.5-2.0") and will be supportive of storms training over the same areas. Have issued a Flood Watch for most of E OK effective from 4pm Saturday to 1pm Sunday. Influences from the low level jet will begin to wane Sunday morning, and the heavy rain/flood threat will begin to diminish. However, the focus for additional storms/severe potential will shift across SE OK and NW AR Sunday afternoon and evening as the upper system begins to east northeast into the high Plains. Boundary pushes into the area on Monday, resulting in lower Rain and thunder chances that will continue for the early part of the next work week. Slightly higher chances for rain and storms return mid to late week as the next surface front approaches.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Expect all of the TAF sites to have a period of MVFR cigs and LLWS tonight into Saturday morning before cigs lift to VFR by midday.
Storm activity should hold off till mid to late afternoon, though there is a low chance over in W AR for an isolated afternoon storm and used prob30 mention to cover there. For the NE OK sites, the latest CAMs suggest storms will begin to affect this area by around 00Z, and then exit by 04Z with a break expected between this round and the late night early Sunday morning round, just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Lacy

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 61 77 57 / 60 90 70 10 FSM 84 66 77 62 / 50 80 90 60 MLC 82 63 76 61 / 70 90 90 20 BVO 81 58 77 52 / 70 90 70 10 FYV 82 61 74 58 / 50 80 100 50 BYV 80 63 71 59 / 30 60 90 60 MKO 80 60 74 59 / 60 90 90 20 MIO 81 60 74 57 / 50 90 90 30 F10 79 60 76 59 / 70 90 80 20 HHW 80 63 73 62 / 60 80 90 40

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for OKZ054>068-070-071-073.

AR...None.

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