Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 3:49 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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FXUS64 KTSA 191715 AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1215 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Another warm and humid day is in store across the region with highs topping out near 90 degrees for most locations this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. A developing surface low currently deepening over the High Plains will act to tighten the pressure gradient and allow southerly winds to increase and become gusty over eastern Oklahoma by this afternoon. Otherwise a quiet day will be had before more unsettled weather arrives beginning tonight into the next week.

Bowlan

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A return to active spring weather returns tonight with dry line established across far western OK/KS. Shortwave over the Great Basin this morning will move east during the day, with storms developing along the dry line by late this afternoon and organizing into a potentially significant complex moving primarily across western and central KS. In general the 00z models are showing a bit more coverage into northeast OK late this evening as storms move into an increasingly less favorable environment for severe weather with eastward extent through tonight.

Generally quiet day Monday as mid level height rises return ahead of a stronger system, with very warm and humid conditions persisting. This system will move into the plains Tuesday with the dry line mixing quite a bit farther east to near I-35. While fairly strong cap is likely to be in place, most guidance suggests at least some development southward into OK late in the period, with all hazards possible given the strong deep layer wind fields.
Synoptic cold front will eventually push south into the area Wednesday with potentially more widespread coverage of showers and storms across western AR and southeast OK, with an attendant heavy rainfall threat into Thursday as the boundary remains in the general area.

With this frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity into next weekend with essentially zonal flow expected, the active weather will continue with at least some threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall through Saturday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, with gusty southerly winds coming up across eastern Oklahoma sites this afternoon. A complex of storms will likely enter NE OK late this evening and impact TAF sites overnight tonight with heavy rain and some strong winds possible creating MVFR and scattered IFR vsby conditions in the strongest storms. Storms should weaken as they move into NW AR sites with still some thunder possible for those sites through the early morning tomorrow. Gusty southerly winds will once again increase tomorrow morning across the area.

Bowlan

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 90 72 89 / 40 0 0 20 FSM 69 92 71 91 / 10 0 0 10 MLC 69 90 72 87 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 65 89 69 89 / 60 0 0 20 FYV 66 89 69 89 / 10 10 0 20 BYV 66 88 70 89 / 10 10 0 10 MKO 67 89 72 86 / 40 0 0 20 MIO 66 88 71 86 / 40 10 0 20 F10 67 89 73 87 / 30 0 0 10 HHW 68 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10

TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
AR...None.

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