Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 11:08 PM   Moonset 7:26 AM

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FXUS62 KRAH 270703 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 303 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level ridge will remain over central NC through Monday.
Surface high pressure will continue ridging into central North Carolina as it slowly slides south along the mid-Atlantic coast through Sunday. The surface high will settle off the Southeast United States Sunday night and Monday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM Saturday...

The upper level ridge will amplify as it shifts eastward over the region through this morning. The ridge will remain over central NC through tonight. At the surface, high pressure will remain SSE of Long Island today, then slowly slide southward off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. While the high will generally ridge into central NC today, as it slides southward sely return flow will advect relatively warm, moist air into the area off the Atlantic, pooling over the Foothills and western Piedmont tonight. Some model guidance is still hinting at a period of increased isentropic lift, mainly over the northwest Piedmont through this morning, which could result in a period of low clouds developing over the Triad. As sely flow increases this afternoon, some low/mid clouds may develop over the southern Coastal Plain and drift nwwd through late aft/early eve.
Cannot rule out a stray sprinkle/shower, but chances are low so for now will keep the forecast dry. Highs today should range from around 70 degrees NE to mid/upper 70s SW. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s expected.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 105 PM Friday...

As the upper level ridge persists across the Mid-Atlantic region, dry weather is expected to continue over the short term period. At the surface, high pressure off the north Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday morning will continue to influence easterly winds on Saturday. By late Saturday night early Sunday the high will slide south and winds over the region will be come southerly. Temperatures Saturday will be a few degrees below average with highs ranging from the upper 60s along the north to mid 70s along the south. With cloud coverage continuing through the night, lows will be above average ranging from mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 PM Friday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow across our region to a S/SW direction. This will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to around 60. While these temperatures won't break any records, they are still around 5-10 degrees above normal.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as the ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west that reaches central NC by Tuesday evening/night and interacts with a lee surface trough in place. However, the synoptic cold front doesn't look to make it to central NC. Also the shortwave looks fairly weak and the time of day of its passage looks too late for the most favorable daytime heating for convection. Still, instability will be high enough that a few storms are possible, especially over the western Piedmont.

Can't rule out a bit more diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday, but with a lack of forcing and another mid/upper ridge moving overhead, coverage should be very isolated at best. The next northern stream trough looks to dive down into the Upper Midwest on Friday, as a cold front approaches. This will bring potential for better coverage of showers and storms. High temperatures will continue to be very warm, in the mid-to-upper-80s, through the workweek. Isolated spots in the south could even reach 90. Lows will be in the upper-50s to lower-60s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 135 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: While the chances for a period of MVFR cigs at KINT and KGSO Sat morn have decreased, still cannot completely rule it out. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. A period of cigs around 10kft is expected Sat morn, scattering out during the aft as a cirrus shield above 25kft spreads across the area. Ely/sely winds should be largely light (5kts or less) overnight, increasing after sunrise and becoming more sely/sly by Sat aft.

Outlook: There may be a period MVFR cigs Sat night/Sun morn, mainly at KINT and KGSO, with cloud bases around 3500 ft elsewhere. Some medium-range guidance is hinting at some moisture in the low levels Mon and Tue mornings, but it does not appear saturated enough to result in any restrictions at this time. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through Mon. The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve, with sub-VFR conditions possible Tue night/Wed morn at KRWI.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Petersburg
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Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:33 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chester
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Sat -- 01:24 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:34 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chester, James River, Virginia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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