Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 11:27 PM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 270638 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 238 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front brings a few showers in northeast West Virginia early this morning, and a warming trend that leads to hot temperatures Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A warm front pushing northeast through the area this morning will continue to generate a few showers in northeast WV as it pushes that way. Otherwise a mid level canopy of cloud will predominate much of the day with breaks, with an afternoon cumulus field beneath at least across the north making for a potpourri of cloud. There is a small chance for enough afternoon destabilization south of the warm front over northwest portions of the area for a pop up shower or thunderstorms, as ripples move through mid-upper level southwest flow.

Cleaner mid-upper level ridging building northward into the area tonight will lead to quite weather with clearing.

Despite the cloud cover, the passage of the warm front and a measure of downsloping should allow for temperatures to be a bit higher than Friday. Central guidance depicts highs about 2-4 degrees above those of Friday. On the other hand, clearing and lighter flow will allow for a slightly cooler night tonight, especially where valley decoupling can occur, but it will still be a mild night overall.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Warming trend will be in full swing Sunday and Monday, as a strong 500MB azores high pressure system moves over. Very warm to even hot temperatures will be in the forecast for both Sunday and Monday. The warmest day will be Monday, where highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be common across portions of the lowlands and southern coalfields; approaching near-record values across portions of the mountains and northern lowlands.

This period will also be marked by dry weather thanks to proximity to high pressure. RH values each afternoon will be in the lower to mid 30s across the warmest areas. This would raise concerns for fire weather, however the wind component will be absent so the threat is low at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A cold front is still projected to approach from the west sometime late Monday bringing with it a chance for rain and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Chance PoPs will gradually increase from west to east late Monday afternoon into the night, with likely PoPs arriving very early Tuesday morning.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler, yet still fairly warm (mid to upper 70s in the lowlands). Brief cool down does not last long through as most locations will be back into the 80s again on Wednesday and this temperature trend lasts into the weekend.

High pressure keeping the area mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday, though a few shortwave ripples may introduce some pop-up showers or thunderstorms in the afternoons. A second cold front looks to move in on Friday bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A warm front pushing northeast through the area early this morning will continue to trigger a few showers in northeast WV, with brief MVFR restrictions possible at CKB and EKN. MVFR and pockets of IFR ceilings sneaking up the spine of the Appalachians early this morning should stay east of EKN and BKW, but MVFR ceilings will eventually spill over into EKN later this morning as the showers pull out.

High stratocumulus/low altocumulus will be predominant through the day today, before breaking up tonight. An afternoon cumulus field is also likely at least across the north today, where a pop up shower or even thunderstorm could occur.

South to southeast surface flow will be gusty at times today, with gusts into the 15-20 kt range diminishing to 10-15 kts or vanishing tonight. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft could lead to low level wind shear at times, particularly when surface winds are not gusting.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset and extent of MVFR ceilings in and near the mountains this morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 04/27/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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