Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vansant, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:42 PM EDT (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 8:43AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vansant, VA
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location: 37.18, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 231723 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 123 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cooler and drier through Friday. An upper level disturbance may affect the area on Saturday. Otherwise, the extended forecast looks to be fairly quiet and dry.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1225 PM Thursday .

Other than a slight chance for light showers across the far north this afternoon/early evening, dry weather is expected across the CWA for the period. It will continue to be gusty today, but will decrease late tonight as the low pressure system pulls away from our area. There could be some river valley fog form late tonight, particularly in sheltered valleys, but at this point, not expecting widespread fog as should still have a bit of a light wind around.

High pressure builds in for Friday, for sunny, dry, and somewhat warmer conditions.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 225 AM Thursday .

For Friday, all models keep the area dry as sfc high pressure builds in from the south in the wake of that stout low pressure system moving off to the north. High and low temperatures are forecast to be roughly 10 degrees below normal into Saturday.

On Saturday, sfc high pressure holds steady until midday when it regresses toward the south and weakens. An upper level trough will slide across the area with the bulk of the energy to the north on Saturday afternoon and into the evening. This feature is associated with a system traversing by the Great Lakes. The feature is not well represented in short and long range models to well with high pressure lingering about during passage. Consequently, some of the models keep the area dry (Canadian NH and NAM) and the inconsistency with timing, location and even intensity are not well choreographed. Being this close out models do not provide much confidence of the feature affecting the area to impactful.

Looking at cross sections the moisture is deprived in the upper levels, low level moisture is shallow and thin, and dewpoints will barely break 50F. The same goes for soundings with hydrolapses in the low levels suggesting even if some showers could enter the CWA any precip will not likely make it to the ground. Therefore, limited POPs to just slight chances and confined them to the northwest sector of the CWA. Temperatures will be almost identical to Friday and fall around 10 degrees below normal for highs and lows.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 225 AM Thursday .

For the long term, sfc high pressure builds back in over the area shielding us for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will sneak up a bit for Sunday and then drastically climb back to seasonable for Monday. Long range models bring an upper level trough over the area for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, however long range models are struggling to agree on timing and intensity while the GFS has the feature only impacting us a little, if at all. Therefore, took guidance with a grain of salt and took out the little chances it had in. This far out leaving sfc high pressure to guard us for the extended period and promoting a fairly dry forecast seems the way to go. Temperatures will remain around seasonable through midweek.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 120 PM Thursday .

VFR conditions area wide for much of the period. Gusty west to west-northwesterly winds through 23Z, when winds will become light. Expect sustained winds in the teens with gusts in the lower to mid 20 kt range through around 23Z.

There is the possibility for local LIFR/VLIFR river valley fog after 06-08Z in sheltered river valleys, mainly affecting KCRW, and KEKN airports. Elsewhere a light wind overnight should keep widespread fog at bay. Any fog will dissipate with a return to VFR conditions by 14Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less fog may develop tonight than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY . River/Mountain valley fog possible mornings through early next week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . SL/04 NEAR TERM . SL SHORT TERM . JZ LONG TERM . JZ AVIATION . SL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA21 mi48 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F41°F54%1017.3 hPa
Wise / Lonesome Pine, VA24 mi48 minWNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F41°F59%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFZ

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SE4W3SW4SW4SW6SW4W7W4W8W7
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1 day agoE5SE6SE6SE6
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SE7SE5SE4E3SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S4CalmCalmE4S7SW6
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2 days agoSE10
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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