Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:09 AM

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FXUS65 KREV 270844 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 144 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated showers are possible late this afternoon and evening for areas north of Interstate 80 and into west central NV. After that, our warming and drying trend begins until a dry cold front drops in by the middle of next week. There are signals for a more unsettled weather pattern extending into the first weekend of May.

DISCUSSION

The majority of the light overnight showers and storms have tapered off early this morning, but we aren't quite done yet. While coverage won't be as extensive today, there will be another round of isolated showers as an upper level wave sneaks across the northern portion of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Showers will start across northern Lassen and Plumas counties around 4 pm and then translate eastward across western Nevada (~6 pm) into the Basin and Range (~7 pm). After sunset, the majority of the showers will will most likely set up in Churchill and Pershing counties, and then rapidly clear out after midnight.

For Sunday into Tuesday, the warming and drying trend really takes hold with gradual warming each day, typical afternoon breezes, and little to no chances for showers. The main exception will be near the OR border for possible showers Monday depending on the southern reach of the next passing shortwave, resulting in a potential delay before these areas see much warming. Highs are expected to return to the 60s and 70s for the first half of next week, except areas north of Gerlach to the OR border could have a harder time getting above 60.

On Wednesday, it may be the beginning of the end of the mild weather. Latest models show a trough dropping into the Basin and Range, which will swing a backdoor cold front through western Nevada. This dry, cold front will kick up some brisk northerly winds and pump the brakes on the warming temperature trend, except maybe a brief warmup by next Friday. Beyond Wednesday though, ensemble cluster guidance continues to show more disparities with the GEFS (wetter, more active) and the ECMWF holding onto weak ridging (warmer, drier) through next weekend. While there isn't a strong signal for a significant storm or rain event, the forecast is still leaning toward cooler, and more active weather for the first weekend of May.

-Edan

AVIATION

* KTRK and KTVL will contend with bouts of freezing fog through 18z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for the Sierra and western NV terminals today and Sunday.

* FL100 winds remain northerly today, but will be less than yesterday. Plan on typical afternoon breezes this weekend with northerly winds today and then shifting back to our typical westerly breezes on Sunday.

* An upper level wave drops through around 00-06z Sunday bringing isolated showers to the Sierra and western NV. Showers will kick off first across Lassen, Plumas, northern Washoe counties (20-40% chances) and then spread quickly eastward into the Basin and Range (10-20% chances).

-Edan


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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