Sunrise 6:53 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 11:49 PM   Moonset 7:53 AM

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FXUS63 KLMK 270713 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 313 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the southwest at times today and Sunday.

* Rain chances return for Monday and again in the Wednesday through Saturday time frame.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Vertically-stacked low pressure is rotating northeast into the Upper Midwest early this morning, pulling a warm front north through the Lower Ohio Valley. A 5-7 degree T/Td gradient is noted from SW to NE in the CWA as winds begin to veer slightly more southerly. A 50 kt SW LLJ is currently streaming overhead, as seen on both RAP mesoanalysis data and recent SDF ACARS soundings. Though it is breezy and will only get breezier after sunrise, stable lower levels have kept much of that wind aloft up to this point.

A band of showers with isolated embedded thunder has crossed the Mississippi River into western portions of KY/TN. This activity is forecast to continue northeastward while weakening this morning.
Recent SDF ACARS soundings have shown a sizable wedge of dry mid- level air that will support gradual dissipation of the precip. A brief shower or two will certainly be possible today, most likely this morning in southern IN. Have PoPs briefly peaking between 20-40 percent in southern IN and tapering to around 10 percent in central KY.

Much of the day will be dry and mostly cloudy at any one location.
We'll see a few more breaks in the clouds late in the day. Winds will become more consistently gusty shortly after sunrise. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are likely mid-morning into the afternoon hours, before gusts diminish this evening. Strong, deep southerly flow will result in a warm day with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most places.

The southerly flow pattern will remain in place through tonight as a Four Corners low pressure system moves out over the Plains.
Downstream ridging will remain in place over the eastern United States. Expect a mild, dry night with lows in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Sunday through Tuesday Night...

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area on Sunday resulting in a warm and breezy day. Daytime highs will be in the 80- 85 degree range with south to southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph in the afternoon. A slow moving frontal boundary will push toward the region late Sunday. Model solutions continue to trend slower here and the forecast for Sunday night probably will continue to trend drier in future runs. For now, will keep some small PoPs out across our far NW areas for early Monday morning.
Lows will be 60-65 degree range.

Aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to slowly work eastward on Monday and then begin to wash out across the area. Scattered rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible during the day, with the best chances west of the I-65 corridor. Model soundings continue to show little in the way of instability and wind shear continues to look very marginal for organized convection.
Showers will likely continue into Monday night and early Tuesday with drier conditions through the day. Highs Monday will be a bit cooler due to anticipated clouds with readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s. Highs Tuesday look to warm into the upper 70s to around 80. Lows Tuesday night will cool into the upper 50s to around 60.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Forecast confidence through this period is a bit below normal here given the model spread. Earlier forecasts generally agreed with a frontal boundary coming into the region around mid-week. The GFS continues to support this idea, through the Euro is a bit slower and keeps this system more in the Thursday time frame. As we move toward midweek, low amplitude ridging is forecast over the eastern US (Mid-Atlantic) with troughing moving into the Great Basin. A broad southwest flow will be seen across the area with the Ohio Valley remaining on the periphery of the east coast ridging. While the main storm track looks to be northwest of us, unsettled weather conditions look likely in the Wednesday-Friday period with mainly diurnally driven convection each day. Thursday and Friday look to have the highest PoP coverage with this forecast. Model soundings do show some afternoon instability each day but shear profiles remain quite weak as higher momentum flow will remain well to the north of the Ohio Valley. The unsettled weather may linger into Saturday as well as the overall pattern remains the same with the potential for a stronger perturbation to arrive by late Sat into Sunday.

Highs Wednesday will be the warmest of the period with readings in the 80-85 degree range. Highs Thursday and Friday will be cooler given the anticipated cloud cover and precipitation coverage with upper 70s to around 80 expected. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
Highs Saturday look to average in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 154 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR weather continues. BKN mid and high level clouds will linger into the afternoon hours. The primary aviation concern this morning will be winds, including LLWS through about 12z. Steady to occasionally gusty 10-20 mph winds out of the SSE are expected through sunrise, with winds forecast to increase at the surface during the daytime. SSW winds up to 45+ kts at 2 kft will linger through mid-morning. The low-level jet gradually weakens after sunrise. Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of a few possible showers at HNB this morning.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

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