Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 11:58 PM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 335 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 25 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 47 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 271009 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 609 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds this afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm and unsettled with periodic rain and storms through much of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Decaying arc of convection advancing newd out of wrn/cntrl IN will be out of ern areas around daybreak. Otherwise broad warm advection continues downstream of sfc cyclone and potent parent wave aloft over nw IA with modest theta-e riding poking into the srn lakes. LLJ weakens through morning and this aftn before some modest strengthening occurs tonight. Adequate low level theta-e ridge remains in place and with substantial diurnal destabilization will lead to redevelopment of showers/storms this aftn within sfc confluence zone broadly pinned through nrn IN/nw OH. This is expected to consolidate in time this evening as it shifts into nw IN/srn MI and where it is likely to persist into early Sun morning before lifting out. Some of these storms this aftn could be strong to severe with marginal hail/gusty winds.

Sun expected to be dry and quite warm as heights build through the wrn OH valley in response to next plains bowling ball wrecking havoc out west. Expect widespread 80+ degree temps. Plains low will release on a similar trajectory as the current sys, into sw ON by late Mon as cold front washes out ewd. Still some chance for showers late Sun night/but weakening low level flow/forcing portents little more. Brief/shallow sfc ridge follows Tue before trailing cold front in association with yet another potent nrn plains shortwave stalls out locally early Wed.

Thereafter late period muddles considerably owing to stalled frontal zone and continued parade of shortwave disturbances out of the wrn US. Suffice it to say unsettled wx the expectation through DY7 (Fri). Otherwise area will stay on warm side of the flow aloft with unseasonably warm temps persisting through the week before cooling down next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 606 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Widely scattered showers are moving through this morning as seen on local radar. Low chances (20-30%) for rain persist through much of the day today, and any showers will be very hit or miss.
Have kept vicinity showers in the KFWA and KSBN TAFs, although opted to take out vicinity thunderstorms, albeit there may be a few rumbles of thunder today. Southwesterly winds will be sustained at 10-15 kts today with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Better chances for rain arrive tonight after 00Z along and north of I-80/I-90. Have included MVFR ceilings and visibilities at KSBN with just a mention of showers at KFWA through the end of the TAF forecast period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046.

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