Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:41PM Sunday January 16, 2022 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:22PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 420 Am Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Monday night...
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering west in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Slight chance of snow showers through midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Monday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 35 degrees and at michigan city is 34 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202201161730;;446216 FZUS53 KIWX 160920 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 420 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-161730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 161005 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 505 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 504 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Expect dry conditions today under partly to mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase throughout the day, and highs will reach into the upper 20s and low to mid 30s. Light snow showers are expected tonight into Monday, then again Wednesday into Thursday. Minor snow accumulations are expected through Monday, especially near Lake Michigan. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday, then fall into the 20s by Thursday.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 504 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Dry conditions will prevail through early this evening, with surface high pressure sprawled out across the Great Lakes beneath an upper level trough. It will be partly to mostly sunny early on in the morning, then we'll see increasing cloud cover through the day. Highs will be in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s, warmest along and south of US 24.

The strong system/cut off low to our south will drift eastward through the gulf states this morning, then lift northeast along the eastern CONUS tonight. The system is just far enough east that outside of a little light snow near Lima, OH late this afternoon/early evening, expect nothing from this.

However, a shortwave stemming from another upper level low over Hudson Bay will drift eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours, and as we see additional moisture wrapping around the backside of the system expect we'll have enough depth to the column to make snow. Initially light winds will shift around to the northwest later tonight and increase, which will provide us with lake enhancement. It's possible early on in the evening that dry air at the surface initially could prevent any precipitation-and if the mid level moisture doesn't quite make it in by the time the trough arrives then it could be more of a freezing drizzle situation. However, kept all snow for now given lower confidence. A lot of the guidance has really backed off on the precipitation with the trough early in the evening, then picked up on it again once the lake effect component gets going after midnight. Theta-e lapse rates look pretty good the later we get into the night, with inversion heights around 3-4kft. Have a 20-50 percent chance for LES near Lake MI (NW Wind favored areas) and 20-30 percent further inland as the trough moves eastward and phases with the exiting storm system to our east, and the lake effect really gets going. Otherwise, expect lows in the upper teens and low 20s tonight under cloudy skies.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 504 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

Lake effect snow showers will continue for N-NW favored regions Monday into Monday evening, with inversion heights lingering at the 3-5kft level and theta-e lapse rates of 2-4 K/km, and cyclonic flow at the surface. As we get later into the afternoon and evening we'll see a diminishing trend to the shower activity as inversion heights crash thanks to incoming subsidence associated with an amplified ridge aloft. Highs will be around 30 degrees, with breezy northwest winds.

We'll remain dry late Monday night into late Wednesday morning. Initially surface high pressure/upper level ridge will build in late Monday night, then shift eastward through Tuesday afternoon. The pressure gradient will tighten over the area from late Tuesday into Wednesday, so we'll see an uptick to south-southwest flow until then. Latest model runs still not in agreement about the exact strength/track of this incoming surface low-but it will move generally from the northern plains Mon eve into northern WI by Tue eve, then cross into Quebec by 18z Wed. It's possible we get clipped in our Michigan counties by a little bit of light rain/snow showers Tue night into Wed, but it shouldn't be impactful. Left out of the forecast for now. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 30s and low 40s as we get into the warm sector, with lows in the 20s and low 30s.

Behind the cold front Wednesday morning, winds shift northwest and we'll see temperatures fall through the day. They'll start in the mid-upper 30s in the morning, then drop into the 20s and low 30s by Wednesday afternoon as cold air advection really cranks up. This will also increase the lake effect pops-with better inversion heights (around 5-6Kft), deep moisture, and adequate delta theta-e. Have snow chances from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning, gradually tapering to flurries after midnight Thursday night.

850 mb temps drop to -22C by Thursday afternoon, so we'll have highs Thu-Fri in the upper teens and low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits and low teens.

Kept the consensus low chance/slight chance pops for Sat/Sun as models are all over the place with the upper level pattern, with the GFS bringing a quick little ridge into the CWA (and thus keeping us dry) for Saturday, and the ECMWF bringing in a closed low that serves to deepen another surface low possibly lifting up the eastern seaboard again. Kept high temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1126 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Strong winter storm affecting Tennessee Valley with mid level cutoff low hooking from deep south into Virginia by the end of forecast period. Meanwhile weak shortwave drops from south central Canada into the Upper Great Lakes. This system, along with increasing lake enhancement, may spread snow showers into KSBN region by daybreak Monday, just beyond current forecast period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . MCD SHORT TERM . MCD LONG TERM . MCD AVIATION . Murphy

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi41 min SE 8.9G9.9 13°F 1022.4 hPa8°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi31 min SSE 5.1G8 15°F 1020 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi71 min E 5.1G7 10°F 1020.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi76 minE 310.00 miFair12°F9°F85%1020 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair14°F12°F92%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASW

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrE7E9NE7NE9E10E9E8E8E9E10E11E10E6E7E7E6E5E6E5E5E7E6E4E3
1 day ago000NE3E6E6E6E6E7E4NE4E8E13
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2 days agoE30NE3E4NE5N4NE4NE4NW7N8N8N5N3NW4N5N3N300N30000

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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