Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:44 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 311 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 311 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure continues sliding to the southeast through this afternoon. A warm front approaches tonight and moves north on Sunday. Weak high pressure returns late Sunday into Monday. A back door cold front moves through Monday night. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area on Tuesday. High pressure then briefly follows for midweek.

FXUS61 KALY 270851 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 451 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Primarily dry conditions to begin the weekend with high pressure remaining just within reach as it slides further south and east into the Atlantic. Clouds will be on the increase today as a frontal system approaches from the west, with scattered, light showers becoming possible later tonight. With a frontal boundary nearby, skies will remain cloudy with additional light showers possible Sunday into Monday. Additional periods of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible at different times during the week along with a trend to warmer temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Infrared satellite imagery continues to show an advancing layer of high-level cirrus spreading over the region as a deamplifying, but still potent surface low crosses into southern Minnesota. Trends in the imagery point to some level of dissipation in cloud cover or at least a thinning of the leading bands of cirrus as they cut through central NY and nears our western border where the atmosphere continues to experience subsidizing of air from the mid- to upper- level ridge situated over the Northeast.

Throughout the day today, clouds will continue to encroach upon the region as the aforementioned low tracks north and east deeper into the northern Midwest. Simultaneously, surface high pressure currently displaced just to our southwest, draped across the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts, will continue to pull away to the south and east. The mid- to upper-level ridge will subsequently also start to slide west, amplifying slightly as its axis moves overhead. Southwesterly flow upstream will begin to usher moisture towards eastern New York and western New England as forcing increases ahead of an approaching warm front.

Latest CAMs indicate showers beginning as early as this afternoon as the aforementioned front slowly tracks through the western Ohio Valley. Maintained primarily scattered to higher- end chance PoPs this afternoon and into the overnight period as showers are progged to be relatively scattered in nature.
Additionally, though CAMs resolve some more widespread coverage in shower activity this evening, low-level dry air indicated on forecast soundings hint that not all showers will be capable of reaching the ground. So, only placed likely PoPs in some higher elevation areas (Southwest Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills)
where southward- facing slopes could see some orographic enhancement.

Despite increasing cloud coverage today, mostly sunny conditions through at least mid-morning in addition to breaks of sun this afternoon, southerly flow and the slight amplification in the apex of the ridge as it crosses the region will moderate high temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s. Pockets of mid 50s will also be possible in higher terrain regions along with mid 60s in valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Scattered, light showers continue throughout the overnight period Saturday and into Sunday morning as the warm frontal boundary remains close by. The adjacent surface high continues to pull away from the region as ridging aloft continues to deamplify. Overhead, high pressure builds across southeast Canada whilst low pressure tracks south of the Hudson Bay area.
Persistent southerly flow across eastern New York and western New England, in addition to warm air advection with the nearby boundary, will be responsible for temperatures rising into the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday. Some isolated to scattered, diurnally driven showers are possible in the afternoon with weak elevated instability forcing the possibility of some embedded rumbles of thunder. However, such an occurrence would likely be isolated.

Sunday night into Monday, showers should conclude with the loss of daytime heating, though clouds will linger leading to mild temperatures of 50s Sunday night. Monday, the boundary looks to lift northward as a warm front, leading to another mild day with highs in the mid 60s to 70s. Conditions look to remain primarily dry Monday as shortwave ridging builds across the region. As a result, cloud coverage will decrease enough to allow for some breaks of sun in the afternoon. Dry conditions will be short- lived, however, as shower chances increase once again Monday night into Tuesday morning as another surface boundary approaches from the west. Monday night will be another mild night with lows in the upper 40s to 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper ridging in the eastern U.S. gradually deamplifies as upper impulses track through the northern periphery of the deamplifying upper ridging. One upper impulse tracks through our region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with chances for showers, possible a rumble of thunder. Just weak cold advection behind this system.

A potential dry period Wednesday before more upper energy begins to approach Thursday into Friday with increasing warm advection and moisture advection. So, increasing clouds and chances for showers Thursday and Friday and a possible rumble of thunder.

Highs Tuesday in the 60s to around 70. Highs Wednesday in the 60s with around 60 southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.
Highs Thursday and Friday around 70 to mid 70s with upper 60s higher terrain.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Some high clouds spreading across the region, well above 10000 feet.
There will be intervals of these high clouds through this afternoon.
Then, as a warm front begins to approach, scattered showers move into our region this evening, between 00Z-06Z. So, indicating PROB30 for showers and MVFR visibilities and ceilings.

Winds will be near calm through about 14Z-15Z and then south winds at 10 to 15 Kt with gusts near 20 Kt in the late morning through afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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