Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:37 AM

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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 406 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue and Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Wed and Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 406 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pressure builds into new england through today. High eventually shifts offshore on Sunday. This allows a warm front to lift in and bring scattered showers late today into early Sunday. The trailing cold front may slide through on Monday as low pressure drops from the north, followed by another low late Tuesday.

FXUS61 KBOX 270733 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 333 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Quiet weather prevails Saturday, increasing clouds this afternoon ahead of a warm front, with scattered rain late tonight and tomorrow. Unsettled pattern sets up for Sunday into early next week, though the best chance for showers is around Tuesday or Wednesday and again on Friday. Temperatures turn quite mild for interior western New England Monday, but a backdoor cold front brings colder air to coastal areas. Onshore flow keeps temps cooler Tue/Wed before warming again late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Highlights:

* Frost Advisory continues through 8 AM due to temperatures in the low 30s. Though, a few prone locations that effectively radiate have dropped into the 20s.

Persistent weather pattern with surface high pressure dominating the forecast yet another day. Hard to complain over seasonable afternoon temperatures and wall-to-wall sunshine. Visually, the more notable difference will be increasing high clouds ahead of a warm front mid to late afternoon. Fairly comfortable temperature-wise as we warm into the 60s, perhaps near 70 degrees in the CT River Valley and Merrimack Valley. Areas along the coast remain cooler, here the high reaches the middle and upper 50s due to the seabreeze. At the coast wind speeds are roughly 10 to 15 mph, inland winds are light and from the southwest.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Highlights:

* Sct'd rain, mainly western areas, as a warm front lifts across southern New England.

* No washout Sunday, but a rouge shower or two are possible. More clouds than sunshine, though temperatures remain mild.

Tonight:

As we transition from late afternoon to early evening clouds thicken and lower ahead of a warm front that brings sct'd rain chances to southern New England during the overnight hours. Think the greatest chance for rain are western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Rain will be light due to the amount of dry air still at the surface because of the persistent surface high pressure system situated over the region. In fact, areas east of the I-95 corridor may remain dry and not see a drop of rain. Given the cloudy conditions and southwest flow the temperatures overnight will remain warm, comparatively to the previous few nights - overnight temperatures range from the low to middle 40s.

Sunday:

Warm front lifts through and we are left with variable cloud cover, still can not rule out a spot/brief shower as southern New England is situated on the northeastern edge of the mid-level ridge. A few pulses of mid-level energy traverse through during the afternoon, it is from this we maintained a slight chance for light rain - do not go canceling your outdoor plans. Despite the lack of full sunshine a warmer afternoon is likely with highs away from the coast in the upper 60s to low 70s. Southwest will provide an onshore wind for the south coast of RI and MA, here it is cooler, upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points...

* Periodic rain chances through the week, first Tue/Wed then again on Friday.

* After a warm start to the week (moreso for western SNE) temps cool Tue/Wed before warming back up late week.

Details...

Southern New England will alternate between being on the northern periphery of a mid level ridge and beneath a series of passing shortwave troughs which will bring periodic rain chances to the region with a fluctuating temperature forecast.

Monday...

Despite mid level ridging overhead a surface low dropping from northern New England along with subtle impulses around the top of the ridge will bring widely scattered showers to the region, though most will stay dry. The biggest forecast challenge is the high temperature for the day as, despite a very warm airmass trying to move north, the dropping low will deliver a back door cold front sometime Monday. Guidance is slowing the arrival of the front which would allow more warming to near or above 70F even for portions of central/eastern MA (away from the immediate coast). Ensemble guidance indicates a 90%+ chance of temps over 70F in western MA/CT and even a 70-80% chance as far east as RI. Along the east coast temps likely don't break out of the 60s (or even 50s on the outer Cape).

Tuesday and Wednesday...

The first shortwave of the week moves through Tuesday with a weak surface reflection. This leads to increasing rainfall chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Though a few rumbles of thunder are possible, things have slowed down a bit which would keep the better instability to our west and limit thunderstorms here if it looses the help from daytime heating. Details on exact timing and placement of rain showers are unclear at this time, but the temperature forecast is more certain; onshore flow should keep temperatures in the 50s (east) and 60s (west).

Thursday and Friday...

Brief mid level ridging on Thursday will bring drier weather and decreasing clouds along with rebounding temperatures as SW flow returns. Another frontal system from the Ohio Valley then approaches on Friday bringing rain back into the forecast. Warmer air surging north ahead of this system brings highs back into the low 70s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Today... High confidence.

VFR. Increasing canopy of high clouds late. Light SW winds increase thru the day to around 7-10 kt; though sea-breezes again develop near the coasts between 14-16z.

Tonight... High confidence in trends though moderate on exact timing.

Cigs start VFR but will be steadily lowering. Best chance at sub-VFR ceilings and light rain showers is after 06z and mainly from ORH westward; cigs could be as low as IFR but think MVFR predominate for those interior western terminals. Still think we're looking at OVC VFR for eastern terminals. SW winds around 8-12 kt to start, but decrease to around 5-8 kt late.

Sunday... High confidence.

MVFR/IFR cigs early in the morning with sct'd -SHRA. Improving cigs after 16z, trending VFR some time after 18z/20z. SW winds 8-12 kt.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Winds are light southerly through 12z. Seabreezes again likely, following similar 14-16z timeframe as prior days.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Light south wind most of today around 4-7 kt and through tonight. Cigs lower to MVFR after 04z/06z Sunday with sct'd -SHRA.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.

Monday through Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday... High confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions for mariners through most of today and this evening, there is a low chance for showers on the southern waters late tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.

Southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 knots on all waters today and Sunday, though will become east/southeast on the eastern nearshore waters late this morning to early evening.

Seas mainly 3ft or less all waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MAZ007-014- 017>024.
RI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...None.

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Pawtucket
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Sat -- 04:16 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pawtucket, Seekonk River, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet

Providence
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Sat -- 04:18 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:12 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:30 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Providence, Rhode Island, Tide feet

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