Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:25 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 270212 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1012 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening

- Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As expected the initial batch of showers weakened as it encountered the dry low level airmass in place here in MI. It looks like there's a gap in the precipitation moving in however a larger area of showers/storms was headed our way from IL. Thus later tonight we will see the precipitation on the increase and towards daybreak, the instability increases steadily so that is when the potential for storms ramps up.

Looking at the rest of the weekend, there is some indications that a potential for excessive rain could evolve. Corfidi vectors become short and a very moist airmass with low lcl's and thin/deep CAPE exists at times. Also a low level jet sets up both Saturday night and Sunday night with a low level boundary around. It does look like the models may be catching onto this risk with the 00Z HRRR now showing some swaths of over 2 inches of rain by 00z Mon here in the CWA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight

An area of isentropic ascent in strong warm advection pattern is bringing showers and embedded thunder into northern Illinois this afternoon and this will be moving northeast through Lower Michigan tonight. The storms are expected to remain elevated overnight. By Saturday morning the steadier rain is done with just isolated showers through the day as the warm front will focus shower activity north of the forecast area.

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening

Convection will be limited across much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon under shortwave upper ridging, with a capping inversion noted in model soundings, but we will have to watch the northwest zones for initiation of convection during the evening along a prefrontal trough aligned across central or northern Lake Michigan. There is 30 knots of shear present in this area along with 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE, so any convection that initiates could become organized enough to present a severe threat. Main threat at this point would be hail and isolated wind.

There could be an isolated tornado threat with some model guidance showing potential for a triple point low across the northwest zones during the evening.

- Warm With Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week

Additional showers and storms are likely Sunday into Monday associated with forcing from an upper-level jet streak and aided by a frontal boundary sitting across northern Michigan and a shortwave from the parent trough ejecting through the region. Convection will be favored across Central Lower for our CWA closer to the warm frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values north of 500 J/kg suggesting there will be an attendant thunder risk. SPC currently has us in general thunder which is reasonable given that the favored region instability is separated from deep later shear and the highest likelihood of showers/storms.

Widespread showers then expand into the remainder of the CWA Sunday night and continue into early Tuesday as a cold front drifts across the area. MUCAPEs suggest thunder chances continue. Rainfall by the time all is said and done Monday night looks to be from 0.3-0.4 inches in the southeast CWA to 1-1.5 inches up towards Ludington.

Dry conditions then take over later Tuesday. as a high pressure system quickly pushes through the area. Conditions then become more active Wednesday as we see a cold front driven through Lower Michigan by a northern stream shortwave followed by additional rain chances into Thursday as a surface low ejects north into the upper Ohio Valley.

Temperature wise, highs in the 70s are expected to continue into mid week. By late week, expect highs to fall back to near normal in the 60s as a thermal trough slides into the central Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 725 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers will continue to gradually develop from southwest to northeast across the area through the mid to late evening hours.
Conditions will start out VFR but will gradually deteriorate to primarily MVFR overnight due to lowering cigs and steadier rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms may develop overnight with the relatively best chance for a storm coming after midnight through around daybreak.

SE winds will stay up around 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts to around 25 kts overnight. MVFR cigs are likely to linger Saturday morning before gradually improving to VFR in the afternoon. Southerly winds will stay up at around 15 to 25 kts Saturday. A few showers and storms may develop late Saturday afternoon and early evening but there is not enough potential for it to include mention in any of the terminal forecasts. The better chance for rain and convection will hold off until after 00Z Sun.

MARINE
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for later tonight through Saturday night. Southwest winds should hit 25 knots and perhaps 30 knots at times. Marine fog is possible as well with dew points in the mid to upper 50s although the winds may be able to mix out the inversion and disperse the fog to some extent.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.

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