Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Ledge, MI
April 27, 2024 3:47 AM EDT (07:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:27 AM |
LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Saturday through Sunday morning - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds to 30 knots veering south toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms through about 2 am, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday - South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds around 15 knots backing south late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 270618 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 218 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening
- Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week
UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
As expected the initial batch of showers weakened as it encountered the dry low level airmass in place here in MI. It looks like there's a gap in the precipitation moving in however a larger area of showers/storms was headed our way from IL. Thus later tonight we will see the precipitation on the increase and towards daybreak, the instability increases steadily so that is when the potential for storms ramps up.
Looking at the rest of the weekend, there is some indications that a potential for excessive rain could evolve. Corfidi vectors become short and a very moist airmass with low lcl's and thin/deep CAPE exists at times. Also a low level jet sets up both Saturday night and Sunday night with a low level boundary around. It does look like the models may be catching onto this risk with the 00Z HRRR now showing some swaths of over 2 inches of rain by 00z Mon here in the CWA
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
An area of isentropic ascent in strong warm advection pattern is bringing showers and embedded thunder into northern Illinois this afternoon and this will be moving northeast through Lower Michigan tonight. The storms are expected to remain elevated overnight. By Saturday morning the steadier rain is done with just isolated showers through the day as the warm front will focus shower activity north of the forecast area.
- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening
Convection will be limited across much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon under shortwave upper ridging, with a capping inversion noted in model soundings, but we will have to watch the northwest zones for initiation of convection during the evening along a prefrontal trough aligned across central or northern Lake Michigan. There is 30 knots of shear present in this area along with 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE, so any convection that initiates could become organized enough to present a severe threat. Main threat at this point would be hail and isolated wind.
There could be an isolated tornado threat with some model guidance showing potential for a triple point low across the northwest zones during the evening.
- Warm With Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week
Additional showers and storms are likely Sunday into Monday associated with forcing from an upper-level jet streak and aided by a frontal boundary sitting across northern Michigan and a shortwave from the parent trough ejecting through the region. Convection will be favored across Central Lower for our CWA closer to the warm frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values north of 500 J/kg suggesting there will be an attendant thunder risk. SPC currently has us in general thunder which is reasonable given that the favored region instability is separated from deep later shear and the highest likelihood of showers/storms.
Widespread showers then expand into the remainder of the CWA Sunday night and continue into early Tuesday as a cold front drifts across the area. MUCAPEs suggest thunder chances continue. Rainfall by the time all is said and done Monday night looks to be from 0.3-0.4 inches in the southeast CWA to 1-1.5 inches up towards Ludington.
Dry conditions then take over later Tuesday. as a high pressure system quickly pushes through the area. Conditions then become more active Wednesday as we see a cold front driven through Lower Michigan by a northern stream shortwave followed by additional rain chances into Thursday as a surface low ejects north into the upper Ohio Valley.
Temperature wise, highs in the 70s are expected to continue into mid week. By late week, expect highs to fall back to near normal in the 60s as a thermal trough slides into the central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A warm front stretches from Iowa southeastward into Northern Illinois and Southern Indiana at 06Z. The front will steadily work its way north and east through Southwest Lower Michigan today. Typical weather associated with a warm frontal passage in the spring can be expected...namely rain showers, embedded thunderstorms and lower ceilings.
Lower ceilings will press into the TAF sites towards daybreak, with MVFR conditions prevailing by 14Z-15Z. Showers will be likely in the 08Z to 14Z time frame with some occasional thunderstorm activity mixed in as well.
The MVFR conditions should try to lift out in the afternoon as we surge into the warm sector of the system. Another round of storms appears likely after 00Z, but much of this activity should remain north of the TAF sites through 06Z Sun.
Winds will veer from southeast to southwest today with the passage of the warm front. Wind gusts may eclipse 30 knots this afternoon from the southwest.
MARINE
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for later tonight through Saturday night. Southwest winds should hit 25 knots and perhaps 30 knots at times. Marine fog is possible as well with dew points in the mid to upper 50s although the winds may be able to mix out the inversion and disperse the fog to some extent.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 218 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening
- Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week
UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
As expected the initial batch of showers weakened as it encountered the dry low level airmass in place here in MI. It looks like there's a gap in the precipitation moving in however a larger area of showers/storms was headed our way from IL. Thus later tonight we will see the precipitation on the increase and towards daybreak, the instability increases steadily so that is when the potential for storms ramps up.
Looking at the rest of the weekend, there is some indications that a potential for excessive rain could evolve. Corfidi vectors become short and a very moist airmass with low lcl's and thin/deep CAPE exists at times. Also a low level jet sets up both Saturday night and Sunday night with a low level boundary around. It does look like the models may be catching onto this risk with the 00Z HRRR now showing some swaths of over 2 inches of rain by 00z Mon here in the CWA
DISCUSSION
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
- Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight
An area of isentropic ascent in strong warm advection pattern is bringing showers and embedded thunder into northern Illinois this afternoon and this will be moving northeast through Lower Michigan tonight. The storms are expected to remain elevated overnight. By Saturday morning the steadier rain is done with just isolated showers through the day as the warm front will focus shower activity north of the forecast area.
- Slight Risk of Severe Weather Saturday evening
Convection will be limited across much of the forecast area through Saturday afternoon under shortwave upper ridging, with a capping inversion noted in model soundings, but we will have to watch the northwest zones for initiation of convection during the evening along a prefrontal trough aligned across central or northern Lake Michigan. There is 30 knots of shear present in this area along with 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE, so any convection that initiates could become organized enough to present a severe threat. Main threat at this point would be hail and isolated wind.
There could be an isolated tornado threat with some model guidance showing potential for a triple point low across the northwest zones during the evening.
- Warm With Multiple Rounds of Showers and Storms Through Mid Week
Additional showers and storms are likely Sunday into Monday associated with forcing from an upper-level jet streak and aided by a frontal boundary sitting across northern Michigan and a shortwave from the parent trough ejecting through the region. Convection will be favored across Central Lower for our CWA closer to the warm frontal boundary, with MUCAPE values north of 500 J/kg suggesting there will be an attendant thunder risk. SPC currently has us in general thunder which is reasonable given that the favored region instability is separated from deep later shear and the highest likelihood of showers/storms.
Widespread showers then expand into the remainder of the CWA Sunday night and continue into early Tuesday as a cold front drifts across the area. MUCAPEs suggest thunder chances continue. Rainfall by the time all is said and done Monday night looks to be from 0.3-0.4 inches in the southeast CWA to 1-1.5 inches up towards Ludington.
Dry conditions then take over later Tuesday. as a high pressure system quickly pushes through the area. Conditions then become more active Wednesday as we see a cold front driven through Lower Michigan by a northern stream shortwave followed by additional rain chances into Thursday as a surface low ejects north into the upper Ohio Valley.
Temperature wise, highs in the 70s are expected to continue into mid week. By late week, expect highs to fall back to near normal in the 60s as a thermal trough slides into the central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
A warm front stretches from Iowa southeastward into Northern Illinois and Southern Indiana at 06Z. The front will steadily work its way north and east through Southwest Lower Michigan today. Typical weather associated with a warm frontal passage in the spring can be expected...namely rain showers, embedded thunderstorms and lower ceilings.
Lower ceilings will press into the TAF sites towards daybreak, with MVFR conditions prevailing by 14Z-15Z. Showers will be likely in the 08Z to 14Z time frame with some occasional thunderstorm activity mixed in as well.
The MVFR conditions should try to lift out in the afternoon as we surge into the warm sector of the system. Another round of storms appears likely after 00Z, but much of this activity should remain north of the TAF sites through 06Z Sun.
Winds will veer from southeast to southwest today with the passage of the warm front. Wind gusts may eclipse 30 knots this afternoon from the southwest.
MARINE
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for later tonight through Saturday night. Southwest winds should hit 25 knots and perhaps 30 knots at times. Marine fog is possible as well with dew points in the mid to upper 50s although the winds may be able to mix out the inversion and disperse the fog to some extent.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLAN CAPITAL REGION INTL,MI | 9 sm | 54 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 29.98 |
| KFPK FITCH H BEACH,MI | 13 sm | 12 min | ESE 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 29.91 | |
| KTEW MASON JEWETT FIELD,MI | 21 sm | 12 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 55°F | 46°F | 72% | 29.94 |
Detroit, MI,
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