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LOZ065 Expires:202309182000;;855567 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas - . Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent - .
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include - . Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
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lat - .lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

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FXUS61 KBUF 270225 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1025 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will drift east to the New England coastline tonight maintaining dry weather. A warm front will lift across the region this weekend bringing some showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, especially Saturday. A warming trend this weekend into early next week will result in late spring to summerlike warmth both Sunday and Monday. A cold front will bring our next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/
High pressure will drift to the New England coast tonight, while upper-level ridging builds across New York State. Meanwhile further west, an initial cutter-type low will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to the Upper Mississippi Valley. As it does, this system will push a warm frontal boundary toward our region. This will initially bring a general west to east increase in mid and high cloud cover to most areas tonight, with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching Chautauqua county toward Saturday morning. Otherwise the night will remain dry, and will be notably milder than the previous couple nights as a southeasterly return flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Expect overnight low temperatures to range from the upper 30s across the North Country to the lower 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline, where downsloping will provide added warmth to temperatures, and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the second half of the night.

The warm frontal boundary will lift into the region Saturday and gradually weaken as it moves to the east. This front will bring the likelihood for showers to western New York with the expectation that the shower activity will become more scattered farther to the east during the afternoon as the frontal boundary weakens. Can not completely rule out a rumble of thunder, but instability looks very limited so it seems this threat will be isolated at best. High temperatures should range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline.

SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weak warm front will carry northward to start this period, with showers and a few thunderstorms over the eastern end of Lake Ontario and points eastward.

Aloft a mid level ridge will begin to build over our region Sunday - Monday. At the surface Sunday a frontal boundary will lie to our west and north Sunday...to be pushed southward Monday as a shortwave well to the north near James Bay crests the mid level ridge.
Marginal instability may allow for a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Tough to time and place such storms, but daytime period will be favored with the building instability.

Under this ridge warm air advection aloft will promote temperatures above normal for Sunday in the low to mid 70s. For Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C, widespread upper 70s and lower 80s air temperatures, and even mid 80s in the Genesee Valley are expected. This southwest flow will keep downtown Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon how far southward the front sags Monday across the southern and eastern waters of Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may keep the south- southeast shoreline along the Lake a bit cooler.

Monday night a cold front will edge its way closer to our region.
Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will become likely later in the night across WNY. Also a few showers are likely east of Lake Ontario as a stalled frontal boundary is forced northward ahead of the next system. Will side towards the warmer temperature solutions of guidance for Monday night with a steady southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An anomalously strong ridge over Northeast will move off the east coast by Tuesday, and based on multiple ensemble systems there is medium to high confidence that zonal flow will set-up across the Great Lakes region through mid-week. Confidence lessens towards the end of the work week with consensus showing a subtle trough over the Northeast, however some ensemble members show the potential for a ridge to build into the region.

For more sensible details, a cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday. There is good agreement that the front will move through during daylight hours which increases the probability (55-75%) for showers and thunderstorms across a portion of the forecast region. Surface high pressure will move into the region Wednesday and result in mostly dry weather, however there is a low (20-30%) chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Another cold front may approach the region Thursday and Friday.
Surface high pressure may linger into Thursday, however the forecast will maintain a higher chance (30-40%) as moisture increases ahead of the cold front. The cold front may move into the region Friday which will continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place through the night with only thickening cirrus from west to east.

By daybreak...an approaching warm front will initiate increasingly widespread showers over the far western counties with cigs dropping to low VFR-MVFR levels. Cigs will continue to drop off from west to east through the course of Saturday as showers will become widespread for most areas. IFR cigs will be likely over the Srn Tier by mid-late afternoon.

The deteriorating conditions late tonight and Saturday will be accompanied by gusty south to southeast winds...with top end gusts in the range of 30-35 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will drift to the New England coastline tonight.
On Lake Ontario, easterly winds will remain elevated and maintain advisory-level conditions on the western portions of the lake west of Rochester through this evening.

High pressure will remain anchored off the New England coast tonight and Saturday, while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to central Ontario. This will result in winds across the lower Great Lakes veering to southeast and then south while strengthening, though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters. As a result, conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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