Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:57 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ809 Motherwood Point To Cape Krusenstern Out To 10 Nm- 150 Pm Akdt Fri Apr 26 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 kt. Sat - W winds 5 kt. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Sun night - W winds 10 kt. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Mon night - W winds 15 kt. Tue - W winds 15 kt. Wed - NE winds 15 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 262146 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 146 PM AKDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS

Very low confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday due to large spreads in the deterministic and ensemble solutions. The upper level ridge currently in place across Interior Alaska will continue into Saturday before breaking down Sunday into Monday. An upper low over the Bering Sea will quickly progress southeast across the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska over the weekend. This will force shortwave ridging north across the west coast. Upper level ridging will also strengthen along the North Slope this weekend. Weak embedded energy caught between the upper ridges will lead to light shower activity this weekend, mainly southeast of Fairbanks. Beyond Sunday, models and ensembles diverge into two possible clusters. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions develop a deep low (near 520 dam) by mid week and drop it south across the Lisburne Peninsula and along the Bering Strait by late week. The Canadian is in a similar camp, with the low further west and not as strong. The GFS, GEFS and NBM are much weaker with the upper system (near 540 dam) and bring it across the North Slope mid to late week. Given these differences, confidence in the extended period beyond Sunday is low.

DISCUSSION

Upper level ridging across Interior Alaska will break down tonight into Saturday as the Bering Sea low moves southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. This will force the upper ridge across the Interior to split, with ridging to the north, and southwest by Saturday afternoon. Southeasterly flow with embedded vort energy will lift northwest across the interior through Sunday. This will likely produce light shower activity from near Tok, northwest to south of Fairbanks. These showers will not amount to much and will be spotty in nature. Beyond Sunday, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS and GEFS want to rebuild the upper ridge across the Interior by mid to late week. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions are a bit more aggressive with precipitation across the region. Depending on solution, temperatures would also likely be impacted. Temperatures look to remain status-quo through Sunday with 40s to upper 50s and even a few lower 60s. With the GFS solution, temperatures would remain on the warmer side. With the ECMWF, temperatures would be cooler.

Blizzard conditions continue along the Beaufort Coast into this evening.
Winds remain strong, mainly in the 20 to 30 kt range, with visibilities dropping to under ½ mile. These conditions look to improve tonight into Saturday morning. Onshore northeasterly flow will continue through Monday with areas of fog, low stratus and periods of light snow continuing. Temperatures will remain cold with teens along the coast, to lower 30s inland. The next upper shortwave will move across the North Slope for mid to late week.
This will bring increased chances for light snowfall for mid to late week. If the ECMWF and Canadian solutions pan out, stronger winds and much colder temperatures along with increased chances for snow would be possible from mid to late week across the Lisburne Peninsula.

A few light showers will continue to dissipate over the Yukon Delta region through this evening, but should come to an end as upper ridging build across the West Coast tonight. Temperatures will also moderate into the mid 30s to lower 40s over the weekend into early next week. The forecast for the West Coast for next week will be highly dependent on which cluster of model solutions unfold. The ECMWF/Canadian solutions would bring colder temperatures and increased chances for precipitation to the West Coast, while the GFS/GEFS would be warmer and drier. Given the uncertainty, did not stray way from the current forecast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER

Relative humidity values along the Tanana Valley will fall from the 30 percent range down into the upper teens to lower 20s by early next week and continue through the end of the week. Winds look to remain light, however, a few gap flow prone areas may see occasional gusts near 20 mph through the next several days.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-860-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.

Kiwalik
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Sat -- 04:06 AM AKDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:23 AM AKDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 PM AKDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:42 PM AKDT     1.90 feet High Tide
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Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

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