Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 933 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

The main changes to tonight's forecast were adding "patchy dense fog" wording to portions of the Tri-State area to go with the inherited areas of fog via hourly wx grids. Evening model guidance is insistent on swaths of fog spreading overnight through the early-morning hrs from SW to NE as admist calm winds and mostly clear skies. One limiting factor may be a band of thick mid-level clouds spilling into the Wiregrass.

Overall, the robust fog signals make sense given the moist low- level SW wind observed earlier today and a well-defined seabreeze that pushed towards I-10 past Tallahassee this afternoon. Trends will be monitored closely to see if any Dense Fog Advisories are needed prior to sunrise. The best potential is over the inland FL Panhandle, West-Central FL Big Bend, SE AL, Flint River Valley, and into parts of South-Central GA.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Fog is the main concern through the short term forecast. Surface winds turn southerly later today, allowing for some moisture return, which you can see happening to our west this afternoon, over the area. Some of the fog may be dense in locations, but confidence wasn't high enough in any one location to issue a Dense Fog Advisory tonight.

Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds is forecast Saturday afternoon with temperatures warming into the 70s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Cold front swings through early Sunday morning, bringing a low (less than 30%) chance for showers, with the highest chances across southeastern Alabama. Much cold air arrives following the front with temperatures plummeting from the 60s ahead of the front Sunday to the 20s and 30s Monday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions Sunday night into Monday morning and those cold temperatures will create Wind Chill values, or feels-like temperatures, in the 10s to 20s; Values this cold would necessitate at least a Cold Weather Advisory with a low (less than 20%) chance of Extreme Cold Warnings.

A cold Monday afternoon follows with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s during the day. Winds calm some Monday night, allowing temperatures to drop into the 20s again. A little breath of wind will create Wind Chills in the 20s and the potential for additional Cold weather products. With temperatures forecast to drop to 25 degrees of below Tuesday morning, there is the chance of needing a Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze for most areas along and north of I-10.

Temperatures begin a warming trend Tuesday afternoon as we see daytime highs return to the 60s and 70s by the second half of next week.

A deeper look at the forecast shows an H5 trough diving out of Canada and over the Great Lakes as a strong 1040+mb surface high oozes out of the Arctic and into the Upper Midwest Sunday morning.
This high moseys into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night, pushing a strong cold front through our area. Although a few showers are expected with the front, especially across Alabama, not a whole lot of rain is forecast.

On the cold front, the orientation of the H5 trough is such that the core of the coldest air is forecast to slide to the north and east of us at 850mb. However, the strong 1040+mb Arctic high moving from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley will be close enough to push a surge of low-level cold air over the Southeast. So while 850mb temps are "only" forecast to drop to between 3-7 degrees Celsius, the shallow nature of the cold air from the strong Arctic high will be enough to bring some of the coldest weather so far this season.
It'll be a quick shot, mind you, thanks to the orientation of the trough mentioned about, but it'll be cold nonetheless.

Based on previous forecaster experience, the NAM and hi-res NAM has a decent track record when it comes to low-level cold air, moreso than global models. So there may be some adjustments to temperatures and wind chills as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Terminals hold at VFR for the next few hrs before fog and/or low stratus spreads from SW to NE in the 6-11Z range as winds go calm.
During that time, expect quickly deteriorating flt conds to IFR or lower vsbys/cigs. Some of the fog may become dense with the highest confidence at TLH and lowest potential at ECP. Approaching or reaching airport mins are possible leading up to sunrise.
Expect gradual improvement starting at 15Z (slower at DHN/ABY) and return to VFR by 18Z amidst a lgt south to SW wind.

MARINE
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Favorable marine conditions continue through Saturday night ahead of a cold front. That cold front will bring a low, less than 20 percent, chance for a few showers on Sunday. Strong to near-gale northerly winds are forecast immediately following the cold front with gusts to gale force expected Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Conditions slowly improve later Monday into Tuesday with winds out of the east.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

Dry conditions continue through Saturday. Rain chances increase Saturday night, mainly across southeastern Alabama, ahead of a cold front that swings through during the day Sunday. Light southwesterly Transport Winds Saturday turn northerly and increase to 20-25 mph during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. Very dry air arrives on Monday, with single digit dew points anticipated, creating MinRH values between 25 to 30 percent Monday afternoon.

Patchy to areas of fog are forecast tonight for much of the area tonight and again Saturday night across Florida and south-central Georgia.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025

The highest chance for rain is across southeastern Alabama, with a 30 to 50 percent chance northwest of a line from DeFuniak Springs, FL to Albany, GA. Lower rain chances are forecast southeast of that line. Even then, chances of more than 0.10 inch is very low, or less than 10 percent.

All that to say that there are no flooding concerns the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 45 72 50 68 / 0 0 10 10 Panama City 54 71 56 67 / 0 10 20 20 Dothan 49 71 51 61 / 0 10 40 10 Albany 45 71 51 62 / 0 0 30 10 Valdosta 44 72 47 67 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 41 74 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 67 55 68 / 0 0 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.