Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kodiak, AK

FXAK68 PAFC 121450 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 550 AM AKST Fri Dec 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Winds increase again tonight for most locations, especially in Valdez, Seward/Resurrection Bay, as well as the waters around Kodiak Island. Northeast winds increase Saturday afternoon through Monday across the Matanuska Valley. Confidence is increasing that wind gusts approach 60 mph in the Matanuska Valley for Sunday night and Monday. Still some uncertainty on the duration of how long gusty winds last.

- High Wind Watches were upgraded to Warnings for both Valdez (northeast gusts up to 70 mph) and Thompson Pass (northeast gusts up to 75 mph) starting early Saturday morning into Saturday night.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills persist through next week, despite a slight warm up for today. The Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through next Fri afternoon for the Copper River Basin and through the Thompson Pass area. Cold air across Southcentral has caused some rivers to begin freezing quickly.
There could be some ice jamming of rivers as they freeze over. A hydrological outlook has been posted.

Preparedness Actions:

- Prepare for the strong winds returning later today and persisting through the near future. Be sure to secure anything that could blow around by strong winds.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on others.

Discussion:

Strong high pressure continues to take up real estate over the Bering Sea with northerly flow spanning across Alaska. A trough is over the Gulf with a weak low circulating well offshore towards Southeast Alaska. As this trough moves out of the area to the south and high pressure builds in, winds will gradually decrease, becoming mostly calm until later today, except for a few lingering gusts across Whittier/Passage Canal, Valdez, and Seward/Resurrection Bay.

The relatively calm, but very cold conditions will continue through this morning. However, by later this afternoon, a strong upper trough drops into Southcentral. The first effect of this trough is gusty winds in Whittier and Seward, reaching over 40 mph through Saturday. Then, gusty winds return to the Matanuska Valley, mostly picking up in earnest Saturday afternoon and evening with gusts up to 50 mph, and Valdez, picking up beginning overnight tonight with gusts 60 mph to 70 mph. Higher gusts up to 75 mph are likely across Thompson Pass. Snow showers may occur Friday across the Copper River Basin and northern Susitna Valley as the 500 mb trough arrives. Any snow is expected to be light in nature, up to 0.5 inch.

Another round of cold air also arrives on Saturday with this trough. Apparent temperatures have the potential to be just as cold or perhaps even colder with this arctic airmass. The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next couple weeks continues to favor towards colder than normal for most of the state. Cold temperatures with the overall synoptic pattern persisting also favors gap winds. Timing and intensity of the cold and winds will continue to be the primary forecast challenge across Southcentral through the next week.
Show more