Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Anchor Point, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

Key Messages:

-Colder temperatures expected across Southwest Alaska, with several days below 0F inland and wind chills of -10 to -30. Near-average temperatures persist for the southern AK Peninsula through the Aleutians.

-Strong northerly winds likely from Southwest AK through Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula with gale- and storm-force winds across the waters.

-Little to no precipitation for most of the area through early next week.

Cold, dry weather is expected to prevail for Southwest Alaska, with a transition to near-normal temperatures farther west- mainly across the Aleutians. The pattern over the next several days will continue to be dominated by two primary features: 1) Large, amplifying ridge across the Bering Sea and 2) troughing across eastern Alaska and Yukon. These features locked in place will leave little in the way of day-to-day variation as far as wind/sky/precip is concerned.

GOES water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough digging across Alaska, with the southwest periphery dropping through Southwest Alaska. Observations across the Upper Kusko show some light snow with this precipitation. Otherwise the main change about the sensible weather with this trough passage is the brief warm up followed by renewed cold air advection behind the associated front.
Highs across the interior Southwest AK will primarily be in the single digits on Saturday, with temperatures dropping below 0 after that and remaining that way for a few days. Coupled with breezy conditions, wind chill values will generally range from -10 to -30 for much of the SWAK from this weekend through early next week.

The pressure gradient between the Bering ridge and the troughing off the to the east will be rather impressive throughout much of the timeframe, resulting in strong northerly flow from Southwest Alaska through Bristol Bay into the AK Peninsula and out into the Pacific.
Widespread sustained gale-force winds can be expected for many of these locations across the water, with storm-force gusts and perhaps even sustained storm-force winds out of some of the AK Peninsula terrain gaps.

As far as precipitation is concerned, there is little in the way of precip in the forecast across the entire domain over the next few days with the ridge in place. Aside from today's upper Kusko snow, the main threat for precip will come first from a weak trough dropping across the Bering into the eastern Aleutians Saturday night. The next comes Monday into Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge begins to retreat southward, with a shortwave trough digging across the top of it. There remains some model uncertainty with regard to placement, but the best chances will be for the Pribilofs and then the Aleutians as it quickly drops south. At this time, no amounts look to be significant.

-Brown

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Bering Sea sinks south of the Aleutian Islands into the North Pacific by Wednesday. In the Gulf of Alaska, a potentially broad and complex low drifts east toward Southeast Alaska and weakens gradually through the week. The resulting pressure gradient drives gale to storm force winds out of gaps from the eastern Aleutians, through the Alaska Peninsula, to much of the Gulf as far east as the Copper River Delta through mid-week. These winds will be aided by continued cold advection across Alaska, with the coldest temperatures in the Copper River Basin, where they will range from 20 to 40 degrees below zero. A series of shortwave troughs aloft dropping south from the Arctic could lead to periods of enhanced gap winds and reinforce the colder temperatures. One of the stronger features models are currently hinting at indicate potential for a closed upper low to drop across the southern Alaska mainland on Tuesday or Wednesday, hinting at higher potential for another round of increased winds in that time frame.
The forecast area remains dry overall. The one exception looks to be on Friday, as some moisture lifts across the western and northern Bering Sea with weak low pressure moving over top of the ridge, which could bring some light snow to portions of Southwest Alaska.

Quesada

AVIATION

PANC...Light northerly winds and VFR conditions persist through this afternoon. Northerly winds will begin increasing this evening and continue into Saturday. Wind gusts 30 to 40 knots are expected at the terminal by Saturday afternoon.