Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:16 AM   Moonset 12:56 PM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 228 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots - . Diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Sat - SW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Rain.Sat night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Tue - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 228 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong winds persist throughout Friday afternoon, with gale force gusts of 35 to 45 knots possible. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 10 to 13 feet in the outer waters. Conditions briefly improve over the weekend, but will increase into next week to more moderate levels. Rain chances begin late Friday night as a trough descends over the region into Saturday.

FXUS66 KMTR 022059 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 159 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 119 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm weather continues through the day today and tomorrow afternoon. Beneficial rain befalls the region late Friday and through the afternoon of Saturday. Cool overnight temperatures expected Sunday and Monday mornings. Dry conditions return Sunday and last through next week.



SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

A look across the region at this hour shows many interior locations already reaching into the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile closer to the coast and bay shorelines, temperatures are in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures will warm today into the high 70s away from the coastline, with a select few locations maybe seeing temperatures reach the 80 degree F mark. However, chances of reaching the 80 degree mark are fairly low even for the favored interior spots. Napa appears to be the most highly favored for the chance to reach 80 degrees, but even then, with only a whopping 30% chance. Elsewhere in locations such as Gilroy and Hollister, chances are only in the 20% range. Coastal locations will only see highs in the mid 60s at best.

As upper level ridging builds and continues, temperatures are expected to be largely similar tomorrow. Breezy northwesterly winds in the afternoons will continue, but ease into the nighttime.

Late Friday night, rain begins to approach the region, impacting the North Bay first, and then slowly making its way south. The previous forecaster's long term discussion still largely holds, so will not reinvent the wheel. Will just mention that rain totals have increased ever so slightly from the previous forecast, but not by much. By a few hundredths generally. Descriptions in the long term discussion still hold largely.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 119 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Seeing good global and mesoscale model agreement, one long wave trough is now stationary along the West Coast, part of an unsteady northern hemispheric long wave trough pattern. A low pressure system from the Aleutian Islands will move through the long wave trough and bring rain to our forecast area Friday night and Saturday. Rain developing first over the North Bay Friday night, rain quickly spreading southeastward across much of the rest of the forecast area Saturday. Expect noticeably cooler temperatures especially inland Saturday with daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest southern interior; daytime temperatures 5F to 15F below early May normals. The low is still expected to brush by and tap higher levels of water vapor extending far north of Hawaii, while retaining a strong mid-latitude influence e.g. it's an appreciably cold core system up through the 700 mb level by comparison on Oakland upper air climatology, the pool of cold air a little more compact by the 500 mb level. Unlikely there'll be layer instability extending above 700 mb, forecast 700-500 mb lapse rates are low and much more stable. Recent precipitable water values on the GFS maintain between 1.00" and 1.10" Saturday, not far from the max moving average on Oakland upper air sounding climatology in early May.

Seeing some recent increases in model forecast rainfall amounts.
For example over 0.50" to 1" rain totals North Bay, near 0.50" low elevations and up to 0.75" to 1" East Bay hills/mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains, 0.10" to 0.20" interior north Central Coast to around 0.50" Big Sur Coast. The Bay Area and northernmost north Central Coast may receive over half if not nearly May normal precipitation from this system if current QPF verifies. As mentioned expect wet and cooler weather Saturday, gusty northwest winds over the coast temporarily subsiding with the passage of a surface cold front/trough.

Chilly to cold overnight low temperatures for the time of year (40s coastside and bayside / 30s inland) are forecast late Saturday night to Sunday morning and Sunday night to Monday morning. San Francisco and Oakland downtown possibly including a few other locations may be nearing record lows Sunday and Monday mornings. Stay tuned to updates, right now Sun-Mon mornings look to be the chilliest. Forecast temperature guidance could edge a little lower between now and late weekend.

End of previous discussion.

Overall, this weekend's system will bring beneficial, although late-season rain. Late Saturday, rain begins to cease and a dry pattern returns to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the next week into the low to mid 70s for interior regions.
Despite gradual warming, CPC 6-10 day outlooks place much of California in a below-normal temperature category, and below normal for precipitation.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR prevails through the TAF period for the majority of terminals in the region. Gusty W/NW winds will be the primary impact once more today, with terminals seeing gusts generally in the 20-25 knot range and sustained winds around 10-15 knots. Current thoughts are that gusts should diminish towards the 04-06Z hours for most terminals, with sustained winds easing to below 10 knots towards midnight.
Stratus will hug the coastline tonight, but is not expected to advect inland thanks to ridging helping to squash cloud decks and prevent them from being able to cross the coastal mountain barrier in many locations, with the exception of KMRY.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with W/NW winds strengthening into the afternoon to become strong around 25 knots sustained, and gusting to around 32-34 knots at the strongest. Time of peak winds towards 00Z this evening, but gusts quickly decrease towards 04Z. Confidence on gusts remaining below 35 knots is moderate. A FEW-SCT low clouds may filter into the SFO terminal in the early to mid morning of Friday, but low confidence on any CIGs developing. Moderate to strong onshore winds return Friday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR prevailing through the early evening, with moderate onshore winds gusting to around 25 knots in the late afternoon. Low clouds will begin to push into the terminal space towards the later evening, bringing MVFR CIGs , just on the cusp of becoming IFR. Into the early morning of Friday, CIGs are expected to lower to become predominantly IFR and lasting through at least sunrise of Friday.

MARINE
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 841 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024

Strong winds persist throughout Friday, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 10 to 13 feet in the outer waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

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San Francisco
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Thu -- 01:07 AM PDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:37 AM PDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM PDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:45 PM PDT     4.95 feet High Tide
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San Francisco, California, Tide feet

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E .
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Thu -- 12:04 AM PDT     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:16 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:25 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM PDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:33 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:08 PM PDT     -2.61 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:56 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:49 PM PDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:59 PM PDT     3.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM PDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Golden Gate Bridge .8 mi E ., San Francisco Bay, California Current, knots

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